Madrid Masters · R16 · Clay · 28 Apr 2026
Casper Ruud v Stefanos Tsitsipas
132–114 in points · Casper Ruud won
Why it went the way it did
Casper Ruud won 14.5 more points than Stefanos Tsitsipas relative to what the serve alone predicted. Stefanos Tsitsipas's biggest leaks: return execution −8.3, backhand execution −5.4, forehand execution −3.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Casper Ruud | Stefanos Tsitsipas | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.7 | −2.7 | −1.8 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.2 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.3 |
| Return | +0.8 | −1.6 | −0.4 | −1.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −8.3 | −8.7 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +3.4 | −0.4 | +2.6 | +0.3 | +4.4 | −3.4 | +1.3 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.2 | −0.2 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −5.4 | −5.2 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −2.9 | −0.8 | −3.7 | +0.2 | −1.7 | −0.6 | −2.2 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.8 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +2.0 | −1.5 | +1.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −1.9 | +1.0 | −0.9 | +0.1 | −1.1 | −0.5 | −1.5 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.4 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.5 | −3.1 | +0.3 | −2.4 | +1.3 | +4.5 | −22.7 | −16.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Casper Ruud | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Net, Casper | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.6 | −3.2 | +1.6 | |
| 2 | −2.7 | −7.4 | +4.7 | |
| 3 | +2.0 | −6.3 | +8.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Casper Ruud serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 79% | 9% 67% | 47% 93% |
| 2 | 43% 87% | 17% 67% | 40% 86% |
| 3 | 53% 79% | 6% 100% | 42% 60% |
Set to set +0.62 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.44 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Stefanos Tsitsipas serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 79% | 17% 57% | 24% 80% |
| 2 | 54% 73% | 7% 33% | 39% 69% |
| 3 | 59% 60% | 7% 50% | 34% 45% |
Set to set +1.24 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Casper Ruud
9.0 points left on the table across 341 shots 2.63 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×11; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Stefanos Tsitsipas
7.9 points left on the table across 322 shots 2.45 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH down the line ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts