Game plan

Adrian Andreev v Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

Every number combines what Adrian Andreev does well with what Juan Carlos Prado Angelo allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Adrian Andreev wins, best of 3 53%90%: 18%–85% · best of 5: 53%

Serve points won 59.7% / 59.2% Adrian / Juan · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 53%serve 59.7% / 59.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Adrian Andreev's record against Juan Carlos Prado Angelo's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Adrian	Juan
Direction choice	+0.03 ±0.12 better than 66%	−0.03 ±0.13 better than 48%
Shot selection	−0.07 ±0.36 better than 44%	+0.49 ±0.18 better than 92%
Execution	−1.22 ±0.62 better than 18%	−1.24 ±0.54 better than 17%
Points left on the table	2.25 ±0.09 lower than 88%	2.38 ±0.15 lower than 75%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Adrian Andreev serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Adrian wins	v Juan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	63%	70%	58.8%±10.4	66% ▲
Body	2%	63%	64%	63.1%±19.3	0% ▼
T	45%	73%	67%	65.7%±10.3	34% ▼

Optimal v Juan Carlos Prado Angelo: +0.2±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Adrian wins	v Juan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	69%	65%	60.5%±10.9	34% ▼
Body	5%	64%	66%	67.4%±17.7	5%
T	48%	67%	69%	64.0%±10.9	61% ▲

Optimal v Juan Carlos Prado Angelo: +0.4±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +4.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Juan wins	v Adrian	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	27%	69%	64%	60.2%±13.2	40% ▲
Body	2%	65%	58%	59.7%±19.5	2%
T	71%	64%	68%	55.4%±10.3	58% ▼

Optimal v Adrian Andreev: +0.5±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Juan wins	v Adrian	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	67%	65%	58.6%±11.0	42% ▼
Body	1%	65%	59%	61.1%±19.3	0%
T	45%	63%	69%	59.7%±12.6	58% ▲

Optimal v Adrian Andreev: +0.1±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Adrian Andreev returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	+2.0	+2.8	+9.1±3.1
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.5	+0.9	+1.8	+8.3±3.7
FH down the line	22%	+1.7	+5.3	+2.2	+9.1±3.7
FH slice crosscourt	9%	−4.3	+0.7	±0.0	−3.7±1.3

Lean FH through the middle: +1.3±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (65 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
BH through the middle	53%	+6.4	+2.5	+3.6	+12.5±2.8
BH crosscourt	29%	+8.8	+2.5	+3.4	+14.7±3.6
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+0.9	+3.5	+8.6±4.1
BH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	+1.0	+0.4	−2.8±1.7
BH slice down the line	3%	−8.4	+1.4	+0.6	−6.4±2.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.5±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (150 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
BH through the middle	62%	−2.9	+0.5	−1.0	−3.4±2.6
BH crosscourt	32%	+1.0	−0.6	+1.1	+1.5±3.3
BH down the line	6%	−0.2	+0.5	+0.6	+1.0±4.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.1±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (128 returns charted)

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Adrian	Value
FH through the middle	60%	+4.3	+2.8	+3.4	+10.5±3.1
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.5	+3.1	+2.3	+11.0±3.6
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	+2.4	+4.1	+8.2±4.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +0.7±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (94 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Adrian	Value
BH through the middle	52%	+6.4	+2.8	+2.3	+11.5±2.8
BH crosscourt	31%	+8.8	+3.1	+2.9	+14.8±3.6
BH down the line	15%	+4.2	+3.7	+2.6	+10.5±4.2
BH slice through the middle	3%	−4.2	+0.2	+1.4	−2.6±2.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.8±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (185 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Adrian	Value
BH through the middle	38%	−2.9	+0.7	+1.3	−0.9±2.6
BH crosscourt	22%	+1.0	−2.2	±0.0	−1.2±3.3
FH through the middle	16%	−2.9	−0.4	+1.1	−2.1±2.3
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	−2.2	+1.6	−0.8±4.3
FH inside-out	8%	+1.0	−1.8	+1.1	+0.3±3.2

Lean BH through the middle: +0.1±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (141 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Adrian Andreev

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · rally	+6.2±2.4	+2.9	+3.3
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.3±2.8	+3.5	+0.9
BH to the middle · rally	+4.0±2.1	+2.5	+1.5
BH to the middle · return	+4.0±2.4	+1.3	+2.7
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.6±3.1	+1.5	+2.2
BH to their backhand · return	+3.6±3.4	+0.5	+3.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.6±4.1	−3.1	−0.5
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−2.2±3.6	−1.2	−0.9
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.2±2.6	−0.8	+0.6
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.0±4.6	+5.5	−2.6
BH to their backhand · return	+3.6±3.4	+0.5	+3.1

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+6.1±2.5	+3.2	+2.8
FH to the middle · rally	+5.6±2.4	+2.0	+3.6
BH to their forehand · rally	+5.2±4.4	+2.1	+3.1
FH to the middle · return	+5.1±2.9	+1.5	+3.6
BH to the middle · rally	+4.6±2.1	+2.5	+2.1
BH to their backhand · return	+3.9±3.4	+2.3	+1.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.2±3.1	−0.9	−2.3
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−1.7±4.1	−1.0	−0.7
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.3±2.5	−1.0	−0.3
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−1.0±3.8	−1.3	+0.3
FH to their backhand · rally	−0.7±3.0	−1.1	+0.4

Against Juan Carlos Prado Angelo-like opponents

Adrian Andreev v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	59.2%	40.8%