Game plan

Adrian Andreev v Maximilian Marterer

Every number combines what Adrian Andreev does well with what Maximilian Marterer allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Adrian Andreev wins, best of 3 70%90%: 28%–95% · best of 5: 75%

Serve points won 63.9% / 59.7% Adrian / Maximilian · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 70%serve 63.9% / 59.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Adrian Andreev's record against Maximilian Marterer's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Adrian	Maximilian
Direction choice	+0.03 ±0.12 better than 66%	+0.22 ±0.11 better than 95%
Shot selection	−0.07 ±0.36 better than 44%	+0.08 ±0.26 better than 62%
Execution	−1.22 ±0.62 better than 18%	−1.46 ±1.33 better than 10%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Adrian Andreev serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Adrian wins	v Maximilian	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	63%	78%	68.6%±10.2	42% ▼
Body	2%	63%	70%	69.2%±15.9	0% ▼
T	45%	73%	77%	75.7%±9.9	58% ▲

Optimal v Maximilian Marterer: +0.2±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Adrian wins	v Maximilian	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	69%	71%	66.7%±11.3	60% ▲
Body	5%	64%	65%	66.1%±16.2	0% ▼
T	48%	67%	71%	65.9%±11.9	40% ▼

Optimal v Maximilian Marterer: +0.2±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Maximilian Marterer serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Maximilian wins	v Adrian	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	75%	64%	66.8%±11.9	53% ▲
Body	13%	61%	58%	56.0%±17.8	0% ▼
T	47%	66%	68%	57.1%±11.1	47%

Optimal v Adrian Andreev: +0.8±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +6.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Maximilian wins	v Adrian	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	60%	73%	65%	64.8%±10.6	58% ▼
Body	10%	59%	59%	55.0%±17.9	0% ▼
T	29%	77%	69%	74.1%±12.1	42% ▲

Optimal v Adrian Andreev: +0.7±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +7.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Adrian Andreev returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maximilian	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	+2.0	±0.0	+6.3±3.0
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.5	+0.9	−1.2	+5.3±4.1
FH down the line	22%	+1.7	+5.3	−2.0	+5.0±3.6
FH slice crosscourt	9%	−4.3	+0.7	+1.2	−2.5±2.0

Lean FH through the middle: +1.3±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (65 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maximilian	Value
BH through the middle	53%	+6.4	+2.5	+0.7	+9.6±2.8
BH crosscourt	29%	+8.8	+2.5	+0.3	+11.6±3.5
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+0.9	−1.2	+4.0±4.1
BH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	+1.0	−1.5	−4.8±1.8
BH slice down the line	3%	−8.4	+1.4	+0.1	−6.9±2.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.3±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (150 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maximilian	Value
BH through the middle	62%	−2.9	+0.5	−2.9	−5.3±2.5
BH crosscourt	32%	+1.0	−0.6	+1.0	+1.4±3.2
BH down the line	6%	−0.2	+0.5	−0.1	+0.3±3.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.2±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (128 returns charted)

Maximilian Marterer returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Adrian	Value
FH through the middle	50%	+4.3	+0.8	+3.4	+8.4±3.1
FH crosscourt	37%	+5.5	+1.3	+4.1	+10.9±4.2
FH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	−1.3	+0.9	−4.6±2.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.2±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (86 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Adrian	Value
BH through the middle	45%	+6.4	−1.7	+2.3	+7.0±2.8
BH crosscourt	31%	+8.8	−2.8	+2.6	+8.6±3.3
BH down the line	13%	+4.2	+0.2	+2.9	+7.3±4.1
BH slice through the middle	11%	−4.2	−0.7	+1.4	−3.5±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.2±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (83 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Adrian Andreev

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+6.3±4.2	+3.3	+3.0
BH to their forehand · rally	+6.0±6.2	+6.9	−0.9
BH to the middle · rally	+3.4±3.3	+2.9	+0.5
BH to the middle · return	+2.9±3.5	+2.9	±0.0
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+0.8±6.2	−2.5	+3.3
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−2.5±5.3	−4.1	+1.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−4.2±5.1	+2.1	−6.3
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−2.5±5.3	−4.1	+1.6
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+0.8±6.2	−2.5	+3.3
BH to the middle · return	+2.9±3.5	+2.9	±0.0
BH to the middle · rally	+3.4±3.3	+2.9	+0.5

Maximilian Marterer

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	+5.6±4.1	+0.7	+4.9
BH to their forehand · rally	+4.7±5.8	+1.0	+3.7
BH to the middle · return	+2.9±3.6	−1.3	+4.1
BH to the middle · rally	+2.6±3.3	−0.1	+2.7
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.6±5.0	±0.0	+0.6
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.1±4.3	+0.5	−0.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−2.9±6.2	−1.8	−1.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.7±5.4	−0.1	−1.6
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.1±4.3	+0.5	−0.4
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.6±5.0	±0.0	+0.6
BH to the middle · rally	+2.6±3.3	−0.1	+2.7

Against Maximilian Marterer-like opponents

Adrian Andreev v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	59.2%	40.8%