Game plan
Adrian Mannarino v Alexander Bublik
Every number combines what Adrian Mannarino does well with what Alexander Bublik allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Adrian Mannarino's record against Alexander Bublik's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −2.5 on serve, −5.3 on return vs expectation (136 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Adrian | Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | −0.06 ±0.06 better than 41% | −0.07 ±0.06 better than 39% |
| Shot selection | +0.11 ±0.09 better than 66% | −0.42 ±0.11 better than 15% |
| Execution | −0.06 ±0.24 better than 66% | −0.93 ±0.38 better than 26% |
| Points left on the table | 2.66 ±0.10 lower than 42% | 2.88 ±0.13 lower than 26% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Structural compatibility
Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Adrian Mannarino −0.08, Alexander Bublik −0.36. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Adrian Mannarino serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Adrian wins | v Alexander | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 50% | 72% | 74% | 72.9%±3.4 | 63% ▲ |
| Body | 8% | 61% | 66% | 63.8%±7.1 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 42% | 65% | 78% | 68.7%±3.6 | 37% ▼ |
Optimal v Alexander Bublik: +0.3±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Adrian wins | v Alexander | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 60% | 70% | 76% | 72.7%±3.3 | 73% ▲ |
| Body | 7% | 55% | 64% | 56.1%±8.2 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 32% | 74% | 72% | 73.6%±3.9 | 27% ▼ |
Optimal v Alexander Bublik: +0.8±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Alexander Bublik serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Alexander wins | v Adrian | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 41% | 77% | 78% | 81.9%±2.6 | 54% ▲ |
| Body | 6% | 60% | 59% | 55.5%±8.2 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 53% | 76% | 77% | 77.9%±3.1 | 46% ▼ |
Optimal v Adrian Mannarino: +1.0±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Alexander wins | v Adrian | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 49% | 80% | 75% | 82.5%±2.7 | 63% ▲ |
| Body | 9% | 65% | 63% | 64.7%±7.9 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 42% | 72% | 73% | 73.6%±3.5 | 37% ▼ |
Optimal v Adrian Mannarino: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +5.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Adrian Mannarino returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Alexander | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 49% | +4.3 | +2.2 | +0.7 | +7.2±1.7 |
| FH down the line | 26% | +1.7 | −2.5 | −1.6 | −2.5±3.6 |
| FH crosscourt | 18% | +5.5 | +3.1 | +1.8 | +10.4±3.5 |
| FH slice through the middle | 3% | −4.2 | −0.3 | −1.8 | −6.4±2.0 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 1% | −4.3 | −1.4 | +1.0 | −4.7±2.5 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +5.8±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1039 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Alexander | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 46% | +6.4 | +0.2 | +2.2 | +8.8±1.5 |
| BH crosscourt | 23% | +8.8 | −2.8 | −1.2 | +4.8±2.8 |
| BH down the line | 14% | +4.2 | −1.9 | −0.2 | +2.1±3.6 |
| BH slice through the middle | 9% | −4.2 | −0.6 | −2.6 | −7.4±2.1 |
| BH slice down the line | 7% | −8.4 | +0.2 | −2.7 | −11.0±3.3 |
Lean BH through the middle: +4.8±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1281 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Alexander | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 62% | −3.5 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −3.4±1.8 |
| FH crosscourt | 22% | −0.2 | −2.0 | +0.5 | −1.7±3.8 |
| FH down the line | 14% | −1.8 | −3.4 | −1.3 | −6.5±4.4 |
| BH through the middle | 1% | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.9±1.1 |
| FH slice through the middle | 1% | −12.7 | −0.9 | −1.9 | −15.5±2.0 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +1.8±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (563 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Alexander | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 42% | −2.9 | +2.6 | +0.4 | +0.2±1.7 |
| BH crosscourt | 38% | +1.0 | −0.3 | +0.7 | +1.4±2.8 |
| BH down the line | 16% | −0.2 | +1.9 | −2.5 | −0.8±4.2 |
| BH slice through the middle | 2% | −11.3 | −0.8 | −2.6 | −14.8±2.2 |
| FH through the middle | 1% | −2.9 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −2.9±1.5 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +1.4±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (531 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Alexander Bublik returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Adrian | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH slice through the middle | 44% | −4.2 | +0.1 | +1.1 | −3.0±1.8 |
| FH through the middle | 19% | +4.3 | −1.8 | +0.6 | +3.1±2.0 |
| FH slice down the line | 12% | −4.3 | +1.0 | +0.1 | −3.1±2.8 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 10% | −4.3 | −1.3 | +1.1 | −4.5±2.6 |
| FH crosscourt | 9% | +5.5 | −1.8 | +2.9 | +6.6±3.5 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +7.9±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1535 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Adrian | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 38% | +6.4 | +1.6 | +2.2 | +10.2±1.6 |
| BH crosscourt | 25% | +8.8 | −1.0 | +4.3 | +12.1±2.4 |
| BH slice through the middle | 16% | −4.2 | +0.1 | +2.3 | −1.8±1.8 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 10% | +0.5 | −4.3 | +3.8 | +0.1±2.7 |
| BH down the line | 8% | +4.2 | +3.5 | −1.2 | +6.6±4.0 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +5.4±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1329 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Adrian | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 31% | −3.5 | −4.8 | +1.3 | −7.0±2.3 |
| FH crosscourt | 21% | −0.2 | +1.0 | +3.2 | +4.0±4.1 |
| FH slice through the middle | 21% | −12.7 | −0.3 | +0.6 | −12.3±2.2 |
| FH down the line | 11% | −1.8 | −5.0 | −5.1 | −11.8±4.3 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 7% | −12.5 | +1.2 | +0.5 | −10.8±2.8 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +10.6±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (420 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Adrian | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 50% | −2.9 | −0.3 | +1.3 | −1.8±1.5 |
| BH crosscourt | 31% | +1.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 | −0.6±2.2 |
| BH down the line | 12% | −0.2 | +1.5 | +1.5 | +2.8±4.4 |
| FH through the middle | 2% | −2.9 | −0.9 | +1.3 | −2.5±1.8 |
| FH inside-in | 2% | +0.6 | −1.2 | +3.2 | +2.5±3.8 |
Lean BH down the line: +3.9±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (834 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Adrian Mannarino
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their forehand · return +1 | +12.0±4.5 | +3.0 | +9.0 |
| FH slice to their backhand · rally | +4.1±5.1 | +1.2 | +2.9 |
| BH to the middle · return | +3.7±1.4 | +2.7 | +1.0 |
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | +3.6±3.9 | +1.0 | +2.6 |
| FH to their backhand · return +1 | +3.3±3.3 | +1.0 | +2.3 |
| BH to their forehand · rally | +2.8±2.8 | +1.1 | +1.6 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their backhand · return | −9.7±3.8 | −5.8 | −3.9 |
| FH volley to their forehand · rally | −8.9±7.5 | −7.4 | −1.5 |
| FH slice to the middle · rally | −8.6±3.8 | −3.6 | −5.1 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | −7.2±2.3 | −6.7 | −0.5 |
| BH volley to their backhand · rally | −7.0±7.9 | −8.4 | +1.4 |
Alexander Bublik
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their forehand · serve +1 | +7.1±4.9 | +3.5 | +3.6 |
| BH slice to their forehand · rally | +3.3±3.7 | +0.4 | +2.9 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | +3.3±2.6 | +0.8 | +2.5 |
| BH volley to their forehand · rally | +2.2±8.2 | +0.9 | +1.3 |
| FH slice to the middle · rally | +1.9±3.4 | −0.5 | +2.5 |
| BH to the middle · return | +1.2±1.3 | −0.1 | +1.4 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their backhand · return | −8.4±3.7 | −4.4 | −4.0 |
| FH to their forehand · return | −7.9±4.1 | −2.6 | −5.4 |
| BH volley to their backhand · rally | −6.8±7.9 | −4.5 | −2.3 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | −5.4±2.3 | −5.2 | −0.2 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −5.0±1.8 | −0.4 | −4.6 |
Against Alexander Bublik-like opponents
| Adrian Mannarino v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 61.7% | 34.9% |
| Players most similar to Alexander Bublik | 1 | 62.3% | 26.9% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Fabian Marozsan, Hamad Medjedovic, Yannick Hanfmann, Matteo Arnaldi, Otto Virtanen, Pierre Hugues Herbert, Nick Kyrgios, Sergiy Stakhovsky, Jerzy Janowicz, Martin Klizan. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.