Game plan

Alex Molcan v Maximilian Marterer

Every number combines what Alex Molcan does well with what Maximilian Marterer allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Alex Molcan wins, best of 3 66%90%: 33%–89% · best of 5: 70%

Serve points won 67.8% / 64.4% Alex / Maximilian · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 66%serve 67.8% / 64.4%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Alex Molcan's record against Maximilian Marterer's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Alex	Maximilian
Direction choice	−0.14 ±0.11 better than 20%	+0.22 ±0.11 better than 95%
Shot selection	−0.41 ±0.18 better than 17%	+0.08 ±0.26 better than 62%
Execution	+0.53 ±0.66 better than 85%	−1.46 ±1.33 better than 10%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Alex Molcan serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alex wins	v Maximilian	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	28%	72%	78%	76.8%±9.2	41% ▲
Body	19%	61%	70%	67.3%±12.7	6% ▼
T	52%	66%	77%	68.3%±10.1	53%

Optimal v Maximilian Marterer: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +6.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alex wins	v Maximilian	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	68%	71%	65.0%±10.2	42%
Body	13%	59%	65%	61.0%±14.8	0% ▼
T	45%	71%	71%	69.3%±10.8	58% ▲

Optimal v Maximilian Marterer: +1.0±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Maximilian Marterer serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Maximilian wins	v Alex	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	75%	71%	73.3%±8.9	53% ▲
Body	13%	61%	51%	48.6%±16.2	0% ▼
T	47%	66%	81%	73.0%±9.0	47%

Optimal v Alex Molcan: +1.2±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Maximilian wins	v Alex	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	60%	73%	77%	77.0%±8.2	72% ▲
Body	10%	59%	63%	59.1%±16.3	0% ▼
T	29%	77%	73%	77.8%±9.7	28% ▼

Optimal v Alex Molcan: +0.7±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Alex Molcan returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maximilian	Value
FH through the middle	34%	+4.3	±0.0	±0.0	+4.2±3.1
FH slice through the middle	27%	−4.2	−0.8	−1.2	−6.3±2.0
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.5	+0.7	−2.0	+4.2±3.9
FH down the line	10%	+1.7	−1.2	−1.2	−0.7±4.3
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.3	+0.8	±0.0	−3.6±1.6

Lean FH through the middle: +4.0±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (177 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maximilian	Value
BH through the middle	46%	+6.4	+1.1	+0.7	+8.2±2.7
BH crosscourt	14%	+8.8	−2.6	−1.2	+5.0±3.6
BH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	−0.4	−1.5	−6.1±2.2
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+2.8	+0.3	+7.4±4.5
BH slice down the line	10%	−8.4	−0.7	±0.0	−9.1±2.4

Lean BH through the middle: +4.6±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (290 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maximilian	Value
FH crosscourt	50%	−0.2	−0.8	−3.6	−4.6±4.0
FH through the middle	38%	−3.5	±0.0	−2.3	−5.8±2.9
FH down the line	12%	−1.8	+1.1	+0.7	±0.0±3.9

Lean FH crosscourt: −0.1±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (86 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maximilian	Value
BH through the middle	66%	−2.9	+2.5	−2.9	−3.2±2.5
BH crosscourt	23%	+1.0	+1.8	−0.1	+2.8±2.9
BH down the line	11%	−0.2	+2.1	+1.0	+2.9±4.4

Lean BH down the line: +4.1±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (137 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Maximilian Marterer returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alex	Value
FH through the middle	50%	+4.3	+0.8	−1.1	+3.9±3.0
FH crosscourt	37%	+5.5	+1.3	−1.1	+5.7±4.0
FH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	−1.3	−1.4	−6.9±2.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.5±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (86 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alex	Value
BH through the middle	45%	+6.4	−1.7	+0.1	+4.9±2.7
BH crosscourt	31%	+8.8	−2.8	−1.4	+4.6±3.5
BH down the line	13%	+4.2	+0.2	+2.7	+7.1±4.1
BH slice through the middle	11%	−4.2	−0.7	+1.7	−3.2±2.2

Lean BH through the middle: +0.7±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (83 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Alex Molcan

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+6.1±2.6	+3.0	+3.0
BH to the middle · return	+2.3±2.4	+2.3	+0.1
BH to their forehand · rally	+1.7±3.8	+1.9	−0.2
BH to the middle · rally	+1.4±2.0	+1.0	+0.4
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+0.9±4.3	−1.8	+2.8
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−0.5±3.5	−1.9	+1.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−5.3±3.4	−1.7	−3.6
FH to the middle · return	−1.9±2.9	+0.5	−2.5
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−0.5±3.5	−1.9	+1.4
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+0.9±4.3	−1.8	+2.8
BH to the middle · rally	+1.4±2.0	+1.0	+0.4

Maximilian Marterer

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.3±3.5	+1.2	+2.1
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.0±2.5	+0.5	+1.5
BH to the middle · rally	+1.9±2.1	+0.2	+1.6
FH to the middle · return	+0.6±2.8	+0.7	−0.2
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−0.7±4.0	−0.5	−0.2
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−1.0±3.3	+0.7	−1.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.1±3.4	+0.2	−1.2
BH to the middle · return	−1.0±2.4	−2.4	+1.4
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−1.0±3.3	+0.7	−1.6
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−0.7±4.0	−0.5	−0.2
FH to the middle · return	+0.6±2.8	+0.7	−0.2

Against Maximilian Marterer-like opponents

Alex Molcan v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	61.5%	34.5%