Game plan

Amarissa Kiara Toth v Linda Fruhvirtova

Every number combines what Amarissa Kiara Toth does well with what Linda Fruhvirtova allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Amarissa Kiara Toth serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Amarissa wins	v Linda	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	23%	61%	68%	62.8%±13.1	23%
Body	61%	50%	52%	44.7%±11.6	46% ▼
T	16%	60%	72%	65.1%±13.9	31% ▲

Optimal v Linda Fruhvirtova: +1.0±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +13.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Amarissa wins	v Linda	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	36%	55%	63%	52.0%±13.3	36%
Body	33%	60%	58%	62.3%±13.4	18% ▼
T	30%	61%	65%	61.8%±13.4	46% ▲

Optimal v Linda Fruhvirtova: +0.6±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +3.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Linda Fruhvirtova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Linda wins	v Amarissa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	67%	69%	69.7%±11.1	54% ▲
Body	14%	63%	53%	58.5%±14.6	0% ▼
T	47%	71%	68%	71.2%±13.0	46% ▼

Optimal v Amarissa Kiara Toth: +0.6±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Linda wins	v Amarissa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	68%	68%	70.6%±12.2	54% ▲
Body	16%	52%	52%	47.7%±14.5	1% ▼
T	45%	64%	59%	58.6%±12.9	45%

Optimal v Amarissa Kiara Toth: +1.0±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +9.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Amarissa Kiara Toth returning

Not enough charted returns.

Linda Fruhvirtova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Amarissa	Value
FH through the middle	54%	+4.2	+3.1	+0.5	+7.8±2.9
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.3	+2.7	+1.8	+9.8±4.1
FH down the line	19%	+1.5	+1.3	+0.8	+3.6±3.8
FH slice through the middle	2%	−6.7	+0.5	±0.0	−6.2±1.2
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−6.6	+0.6	±0.0	−6.0±1.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.9±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (331 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Amarissa	Value
BH crosscourt	43%	+7.7	+1.5	+1.1	+10.3±3.2
BH through the middle	42%	+6.0	+1.6	+1.4	+9.0±2.8
BH down the line	8%	+2.2	−2.2	+0.4	+0.5±3.7
BH slice through the middle	4%	−6.2	+0.2	±0.0	−6.0±1.4
BH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.2	+0.1	±0.0	−4.0±1.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (272 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Amarissa	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.2	+2.1	±0.0	−1.1±2.2
FH crosscourt	35%	+0.5	±0.0	+0.6	+1.2±3.6
FH down the line	21%	−0.6	+2.1	+0.6	+2.1±4.5

Lean FH down the line: +1.7±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (95 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Amarissa	Value
BH through the middle	44%	−2.6	+0.9	+0.6	−1.1±2.3
BH crosscourt	41%	+1.5	−0.3	+0.4	+1.7±3.1
BH down the line	15%	−0.5	−0.2	±0.0	−0.8±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.6±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (119 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Amarissa Kiara Toth

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.7±3.4	+2.9	+1.8
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.6±4.3	+2.1	+1.5
FH to the middle · rally	+2.1±2.4	+3.1	−1.0
BH to their backhand · rally	+0.1±3.0	−2.1	+2.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	+0.1±3.0	−2.1	+2.2
FH to the middle · rally	+2.1±2.4	+3.1	−1.0
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.6±4.3	+2.1	+1.5
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.7±3.4	+2.9	+1.8

Linda Fruhvirtova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	+3.3±2.9	+2.2	+1.1
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.0±3.9	+1.6	+1.4
BH to the middle · rally	+1.8±2.2	+0.4	+1.4
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.5±4.4	−1.0	−0.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.5±4.4	−1.0	−0.5
BH to the middle · rally	+1.8±2.2	+0.4	+1.4
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.0±3.9	+1.6	+1.4
BH to their backhand · rally	+3.3±2.9	+2.2	+1.1

Against Linda Fruhvirtova-like opponents

Amarissa Kiara Toth v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	46.6%	43.5%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Magdalena Frech, Jaqueline Cristian, Victoria Azarenka, Caroline Wozniacki, Qiang Wang, Simona Halep, Tsvetana Pironkova, Vera Zvonareva, Agnieszka Radwanska, Dinara Safina. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.