Game plan

Amina Anshba v Arianne Hartono

Every number combines what Amina Anshba does well with what Arianne Hartono allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Amina Anshba serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Amina wins	v Arianne	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	24%	62%	73%	69.5%±12.2	39% ▲
Body	64%	55%	62%	59.8%±11.8	49% ▼
T	12%	60%	71%	63.2%±14.2	12%

Optimal v Arianne Hartono: +0.8±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +7.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Amina wins	v Arianne	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	59%	60%	52.8%±13.7	24% ▼
Body	55%	62%	60%	65.7%±11.6	58% ▲
T	5%	64%	63%	63.0%±15.8	18% ▲

Optimal v Arianne Hartono: +0.1±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +5.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Arianne Hartono serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Arianne wins	v Amina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	29%	60%	53%	46.5%±13.1	22% ▼
Body	27%	57%	53%	52.1%±12.5	19% ▼
T	44%	60%	68%	59.9%±15.2	59% ▲

Optimal v Amina Anshba: +0.2±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Arianne wins	v Amina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	62%	62%	58.4%±15.4	35%
Body	26%	55%	59%	58.6%±13.1	10% ▼
T	40%	59%	64%	58.6%±12.7	55% ▲

Optimal v Amina Anshba: +0.7±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +0.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Amina Anshba returning

Not enough charted returns.

Arianne Hartono returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Amina	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.2	−3.8	+0.4	+0.8±2.9
FH crosscourt	32%	+5.3	−2.4	+2.2	+5.1±3.7
FH down the line	19%	+1.5	−2.3	+0.3	−0.5±4.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.2±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (281 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Amina	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.0	+1.2	+0.6	+7.8±2.9
BH crosscourt	26%	+7.7	+1.2	+1.6	+10.6±3.2
BH slice through the middle	12%	−6.2	−0.9	±0.0	−7.1±1.7
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	−0.1	±0.0	+2.1±3.2
BH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.2	+0.4	±0.0	−3.8±1.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.8±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (234 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Amina	Value
FH through the middle	49%	−3.2	−0.9	±0.0	−4.1±2.2
FH crosscourt	36%	+0.5	−3.3	+1.1	−1.7±3.5
FH down the line	16%	−0.6	−3.4	−0.2	−4.2±4.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.6±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (76 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Amina	Value
BH crosscourt	45%	+1.5	−2.4	+1.7	+0.8±3.4
BH through the middle	42%	−2.6	−2.3	+0.4	−4.4±2.3
BH down the line	13%	−0.5	−1.1	+0.4	−1.2±4.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (122 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Amina Anshba

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.8±5.0	+3.6	+0.1
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.5±5.4	+2.8	+0.6
BH to the middle · rally	±0.0±2.8	+0.9	−0.9
BH to the middle · return	−0.7±3.2	+2.7	−3.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	−0.7±3.2	+2.7	−3.4
BH to the middle · rally	±0.0±2.8	+0.9	−0.9
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.5±5.4	+2.8	+0.6
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.8±5.0	+3.6	+0.1

Arianne Hartono

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.9±4.5	+1.6	+0.3
BH to the middle · rally	−1.6±3.0	−0.8	−0.8
FH to the middle · rally	−2.9±3.1	−1.7	−1.1
BH to their forehand · rally	−4.7±5.7	−4.5	−0.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−10.5±4.1	−5.3	−5.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−10.5±4.1	−5.3	−5.2
BH to their forehand · rally	−4.7±5.7	−4.5	−0.1
FH to the middle · rally	−2.9±3.1	−1.7	−1.1
BH to the middle · rally	−1.6±3.0	−0.8	−0.8
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.9±4.5	+1.6	+0.3

Against Arianne Hartono-like opponents

Amina Anshba v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	53.5%	51.9%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Ashlyn Krueger, Robin Montgomery, Lulu Sun, Xiyu Wang, Caroline Garcia, Heather Watson, Camila Giorgi, Anett Kontaveit, Eugenie Bouchard, Coco Vandeweghe. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.