Game plan

Angelique Kerber v Garbine Muguruza

Every number combines what Angelique Kerber does well with what Garbine Muguruza allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Angelique Kerber wins, best of 3 25%90%: 16%–38% · best of 5: 20%

Serve points won 54.1% / 59.1% Angelique / Garbine · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 30%serve 54.7% / 58.6%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Angelique Kerber's record against Garbine Muguruza's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −0.2 on serve, −1.8 on return vs expectation (707 points); head-to-head: −3.6 on serve, −1.1 on return vs expectation (471 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Angelique	Garbine
Direction choice	+0.18 ±0.05 better than 83%	−0.04 ±0.05 better than 47%
Shot selection	+0.05 ±0.08 better than 50%	+0.58 ±0.06 better than 96%
Execution	+1.65 ±0.29 better than 97%	−0.03 ±0.27 better than 60%
Points left on the table	2.57 ±0.07 lower than 56%	2.49 ±0.08 lower than 66%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Angelique Kerber serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Angelique wins	v Garbine	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	36%	65%	67%	66.4%±4.0	51% ▲
Body	27%	56%	57%	55.5%±5.1	12% ▼
T	37%	59%	65%	55.8%±4.1	37%

Optimal v Garbine Muguruza: +0.5±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +6.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Angelique wins	v Garbine	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	62%	62%	65%	61.3%±3.8	64% ▲
Body	19%	54%	56%	53.9%±5.8	4% ▼
T	18%	71%	64%	70.5%±5.2	32% ▲

Optimal v Garbine Muguruza: +1.2±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +9.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Garbine Muguruza serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Garbine wins	v Angelique	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	68%	69%	70.3%±3.6	39% ▲
Body	18%	56%	59%	57.9%±5.4	3% ▼
T	47%	74%	63%	69.7%±3.7	58% ▲

Optimal v Angelique Kerber: +0.8±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Garbine wins	v Angelique	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	70%	67%	71.8%±4.0	55% ▲
Body	22%	57%	58%	58.8%±5.3	19% ▼
T	39%	65%	60%	60.6%±4.1	26% ▼

Optimal v Angelique Kerber: +0.7±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +7.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Angelique Kerber returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Garbine	Value
FH through the middle	53%	+4.2	+2.6	+1.4	+8.2±1.7
FH crosscourt	34%	+5.3	+5.1	+0.2	+10.6±3.1
FH down the line	11%	+1.5	+5.5	−0.1	+7.0±3.9
FH slice through the middle	1%	−6.7	−0.1	−0.4	−7.2±2.1
BH through the middle	1%	+5.2	+1.3	+0.3	+6.8±1.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.0±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1007 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Garbine	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.0	+1.1	+0.3	+7.4±1.4
BH crosscourt	30%	+7.7	−0.4	+2.5	+9.9±2.4
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	+7.3	+1.2	+10.7±3.5
BH slice through the middle	5%	−6.2	−0.7	−0.7	−7.7±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.2	−0.4	−2.1	−6.7±3.0

Lean BH down the line: +3.4±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1499 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Garbine	Value
FH crosscourt	39%	+0.5	−1.4	+2.3	+1.5±3.9
FH down the line	32%	−0.6	+1.3	+0.2	+0.9±4.6
FH through the middle	28%	−3.2	+0.3	+1.1	−1.8±2.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.1±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (285 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Garbine	Value
BH crosscourt	39%	+1.5	+2.8	+3.5	+7.8±2.8
BH through the middle	37%	−2.6	+1.3	+0.1	−1.3±1.9
BH down the line	20%	−0.5	+4.0	+2.4	+5.9±4.2
FH inside-in	1%	+0.7	−0.9	+2.3	+2.2±3.6
FH through the middle	1%	−2.7	+1.2	+1.1	−0.4±1.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.0±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (646 returns charted)

Garbine Muguruza returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Angelique	Value
FH through the middle	59%	+4.2	+1.4	+1.1	+6.7±1.5
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.3	−1.4	+3.8	+7.7±3.0
FH down the line	13%	+1.5	+2.3	−0.6	+3.3±3.8
FH slice through the middle	3%	−6.7	−2.8	−1.0	−10.6±2.6
FH slice crosscourt	1%	−6.6	−0.4	+1.0	−6.1±2.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.9±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1441 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Angelique	Value
BH through the middle	57%	+6.0	+1.7	+1.3	+9.0±1.3
BH crosscourt	28%	+7.7	+1.7	+6.5	+16.0±2.3
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	+5.5	−1.7	+6.0±3.6
BH slice through the middle	2%	−6.2	+0.3	+0.6	−5.3±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	1%	−4.2	−0.3	+2.1	−2.4±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.8±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (1254 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Angelique	Value
FH through the middle	49%	−3.2	+1.8	+2.0	+0.6±2.6
FH crosscourt	31%	+0.5	+1.1	+2.0	+3.7±4.1
FH down the line	15%	−0.6	+0.9	+2.4	+2.8±5.1
FH slice through the middle	2%	−15.2	−0.2	±0.0	−15.4±1.3
BH inside-out	1%	+2.2	+1.1	+0.4	+3.7±3.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.1±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (411 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Angelique	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.6	+1.2	−0.1	−1.5±1.7
BH crosscourt	40%	+1.5	+2.5	+3.7	+7.7±2.6
BH down the line	14%	−0.5	+3.2	+0.4	+3.1±4.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.0±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (675 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.