Game plan

Ashleigh Barty v Barbora Krejcikova

Every number combines what Ashleigh Barty does well with what Barbora Krejcikova allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Ashleigh Barty wins, best of 3 64%90%: 35%–87% · best of 5: 68%

Serve points won 65.5% / 62.6% Ashleigh / Barbora · tour 58.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 62%serve 65.8% / 63.4%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Ashleigh Barty's record against Barbora Krejcikova's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −1.6 on serve, +4.2 on return vs expectation (704 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Ashleigh	Barbora
Direction choice	+0.27 ±0.07 better than 93%	+0.19 ±0.09 better than 84%
Shot selection	−1.27 ±0.17 better than 2%	−0.47 ±0.17 better than 11%
Execution	+0.79 ±0.31 better than 87%	−0.35 ±0.52 better than 40%
Points left on the table	2.65 ±0.10 lower than 42%	2.49 ±0.13 lower than 66%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Ashleigh Barty serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Ashleigh wins	v Barbora	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	73%	71%	77.0%±4.4	56% ▲
Body	8%	64%	58%	64.5%±8.6	0% ▼
T	51%	78%	67%	77.5%±4.4	44% ▼

Optimal v Barbora Krejcikova: +0.9±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Ashleigh wins	v Barbora	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	73%	70%	76.9%±5.0	38% ▼
Body	9%	62%	56%	61.8%±9.2	0% ▼
T	47%	73%	62%	70.7%±5.1	62% ▲

Optimal v Barbora Krejcikova: +1.0±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +4.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Barbora Krejcikova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Barbora wins	v Ashleigh	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	70%	67%	70.6%±5.0	38% ▼
Body	12%	64%	57%	63.8%±8.3	0% ▼
T	47%	75%	62%	69.8%±5.2	62% ▲

Optimal v Ashleigh Barty: +0.7±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Barbora wins	v Ashleigh	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	67%	64%	65.5%±5.3	66% ▲
Body	10%	57%	50%	51.0%±9.8	0% ▼
T	39%	67%	59%	62.2%±5.9	34% ▼

Optimal v Ashleigh Barty: +0.5±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Ashleigh Barty returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Barbora	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.2	±0.0	+0.2	+4.3±2.3
FH crosscourt	25%	+5.3	−1.0	+1.1	+5.4±3.9
FH down the line	17%	+1.5	+3.2	−3.1	+1.6±4.3
FH slice through the middle	9%	−6.7	−0.6	+0.8	−6.5±2.5
FH slice crosscourt	4%	−6.6	−1.0	+0.7	−6.9±2.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.0±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (769 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Barbora	Value
BH slice through the middle	29%	−6.2	+1.7	−1.3	−5.9±2.2
BH through the middle	29%	+6.0	−0.9	+0.4	+5.5±2.1
BH crosscourt	17%	+7.7	−0.3	−1.9	+5.5±3.1
BH slice crosscourt	12%	−4.2	+0.7	−2.8	−6.3±2.9
BH down the line	7%	+2.2	−0.2	+1.4	+3.4±4.5

Lean BH through the middle: +5.6±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (911 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Barbora	Value
FH crosscourt	47%	+0.5	+2.4	+0.9	+3.8±4.4
FH through the middle	40%	−3.2	−1.6	−0.9	−5.7±2.9
FH down the line	13%	−0.6	+2.4	+1.2	+3.1±5.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.9±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (161 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Barbora	Value
BH slice crosscourt	24%	−7.5	−1.7	±0.0	−9.2±1.9
BH through the middle	23%	−2.6	−3.0	−0.6	−6.2±2.3
BH crosscourt	16%	+1.5	+1.4	−2.1	+0.8±3.4
BH slice through the middle	14%	−11.7	−0.3	−1.4	−13.4±2.1
BH down the line	7%	−0.5	−1.2	−0.4	−2.1±5.1
FH inside-out	4%	+1.4	−1.4	+1.2	+1.2±4.1

Lean FH inside-out: +7.0±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (526 returns charted)

Barbora Krejcikova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ashleigh	Value
FH slice through the middle	29%	−6.7	+3.4	−1.6	−4.9±2.3
FH through the middle	24%	+4.2	−4.6	−0.3	−0.8±2.5
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.3	−5.2	−1.6	−1.5±4.0
FH slice crosscourt	15%	−6.6	+1.8	−0.4	−5.2±2.8
FH down the line	11%	+1.5	−4.2	−2.9	−5.5±4.3

Lean FH through the middle: +3.0±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (564 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ashleigh	Value
BH through the middle	49%	+6.0	+0.1	+1.8	+7.9±2.2
BH crosscourt	22%	+7.7	−0.4	+0.2	+7.5±3.3
BH down the line	11%	+2.2	+0.7	−2.8	+0.1±4.6
BH slice through the middle	10%	−6.2	−2.0	−0.4	−8.7±2.5
BH slice crosscourt	4%	−4.2	+0.4	+0.5	−3.2±2.9

Lean BH through the middle: +3.9±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (493 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ashleigh	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.2	−0.8	−0.1	−4.1±2.9
FH crosscourt	36%	+0.5	−1.0	−1.3	−1.7±4.4
FH down the line	17%	−0.6	−1.4	−1.7	−3.7±5.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.4±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (142 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ashleigh	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.6	−0.8	+1.2	−2.2±2.1
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.5	−1.3	−1.9	−1.7±3.0
BH down the line	12%	−0.5	+0.6	+2.3	+2.3±4.9
FH through the middle	2%	−2.7	−1.4	−0.1	−4.2±2.0

Lean BH down the line: +3.8±4.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (281 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Ashleigh Barty

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.8±5.0	+3.3	+1.5
FH to their forehand · return	+4.6±5.7	+2.1	+2.5
FH to the middle · return	+1.2±3.7	−0.6	+1.8
BH to the middle · return	+1.2±3.2	±0.0	+1.2
BH to their forehand · return	+0.9±5.6	−1.6	+2.5
FH to the middle · return +1	+0.7±3.6	−0.9	+1.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	−6.7±5.8	−1.1	−5.5
BH to the middle · return +1	−4.9±3.6	−0.3	−4.6
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−4.8±5.7	−2.5	−2.3
BH to the middle · rally	−4.5±3.1	+0.6	−5.1
BH to their forehand · rally	−4.0±5.9	−1.5	−2.5

Barbora Krejcikova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return +1	+3.6±4.6	+3.2	+0.3
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.3±4.8	+4.1	−1.8
FH slice to the middle · return	+1.8±3.2	+3.0	−1.2
BH to the middle · serve +1	+1.0±3.5	±0.0	+1.0
BH slice to their backhand · return +1	+0.7±4.3	+0.4	+0.3
BH to the middle · return	+0.3±3.2	−0.9	+1.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−8.4±6.0	−1.8	−6.6
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−7.3±6.2	−4.8	−2.5
FH to their forehand · return	−7.1±4.8	−5.5	−1.6
BH to the middle · return +1	−5.7±3.6	−5.6	−0.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−5.4±4.3	+0.5	−6.0

Against Barbora Krejcikova-like opponents

Ashleigh Barty v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	64.3%	44.2%
Players most similar to Barbora Krejcikova	5	60.7%	44.5%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Elena Rybakina, Maya Joint, Clara Tauson, Olivia Gadecki, Veronika Kudermetova, Petra Kvitova, Bernarda Pera, Rebecca Marino, Anett Kontaveit, Johanna Konta. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.