Game plan

Barbora Krejcikova v Jessica Pegula

Every number combines what Barbora Krejcikova does well with what Jessica Pegula allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Barbora Krejcikova wins, best of 3 10%90%: 2%–35% · best of 5: 6%

Serve points won 54.6% / 64.4% Barbora / Jessica · tour 55.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 13%serve 55.6% / 64.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Barbora Krejcikova's record against Jessica Pegula's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (head-to-head: −11.4 on serve, −2.9 on return vs expectation (264 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Barbora	Jessica
Direction choice	+0.19 ±0.09 better than 84%	−0.15 ±0.04 better than 25%
Shot selection	−0.47 ±0.17 better than 11%	−0.24 ±0.07 better than 26%
Execution	−0.35 ±0.52 better than 40%	+0.29 ±0.30 better than 72%
Points left on the table	2.49 ±0.13 lower than 66%	2.72 ±0.06 lower than 31%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Barbora Krejcikova −1.54, Jessica Pegula −1.21. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Barbora Krejcikova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Barbora wins	v Jessica	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	70%	65%	69.1%±4.7	38% ▼
Body	12%	64%	55%	61.9%±7.5	0% ▼
T	47%	75%	70%	77.3%±4.2	62% ▲

Optimal v Jessica Pegula: +0.6±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Barbora wins	v Jessica	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	67%	64%	66.1%±4.8	66% ▲
Body	10%	57%	54%	55.2%±9.0	0% ▼
T	39%	67%	62%	65.0%±5.3	34% ▼

Optimal v Jessica Pegula: +0.4±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Jessica Pegula serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Jessica wins	v Barbora	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	31%	67%	71%	72.1%±4.7	46% ▲
Body	29%	62%	58%	62.8%±6.3	14% ▼
T	40%	74%	67%	73.2%±4.6	40%

Optimal v Barbora Krejcikova: +1.1±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Jessica wins	v Barbora	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	29%	66%	70%	70.1%±5.4	44% ▲
Body	22%	61%	56%	60.9%±7.0	7% ▼
T	49%	63%	62%	61.1%±5.1	49%

Optimal v Barbora Krejcikova: +0.7±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +6.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Barbora Krejcikova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jessica	Value
FH slice through the middle	29%	−6.7	+3.4	+0.8	−2.4±2.2
FH through the middle	24%	+4.2	−4.6	+0.4	−0.1±2.3
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.3	−5.2	±0.0	±0.0±3.5
FH slice crosscourt	15%	−6.6	+1.8	+0.2	−4.6±2.7
FH down the line	11%	+1.5	−4.2	−1.3	−3.9±4.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.2±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (564 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jessica	Value
BH through the middle	49%	+6.0	+0.1	−0.2	+6.0±1.9
BH crosscourt	22%	+7.7	−0.4	−1.5	+5.8±3.0
BH down the line	11%	+2.2	+0.7	−3.2	−0.3±4.1
BH slice through the middle	10%	−6.2	−2.0	−1.1	−9.4±2.5
BH slice crosscourt	4%	−4.2	+0.4	−2.5	−6.2±2.9

Lean BH through the middle: +3.4±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (493 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jessica	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.2	−0.8	−0.7	−4.7±2.6
FH crosscourt	36%	+0.5	−1.0	+2.1	+1.7±3.9
FH down the line	17%	−0.6	−1.4	−0.8	−2.8±4.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.7±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (142 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jessica	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.6	−0.8	+0.1	−3.3±2.1
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.5	−1.3	−0.5	−0.3±2.9
BH down the line	12%	−0.5	+0.6	−0.8	−0.7±4.6
FH through the middle	2%	−2.7	−1.4	−0.7	−4.7±1.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.5±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (281 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Jessica Pegula returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Barbora	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.2	−1.8	+0.2	+2.5±2.0
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.3	+1.4	+1.1	+7.8±3.8
FH slice through the middle	13%	−6.7	+0.3	+0.8	−5.6±2.4
FH down the line	11%	+1.5	+0.4	−3.1	−1.2±4.3
FH slice crosscourt	4%	−6.6	−0.2	+0.7	−6.0±2.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.6±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1257 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Barbora	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.0	−3.0	+0.4	+3.4±1.8
BH crosscourt	24%	+7.7	+0.5	−1.9	+6.3±2.8
BH slice through the middle	12%	−6.2	−0.2	−1.3	−7.7±2.4
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	−1.4	+1.4	+2.1±4.2
BH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.2	−0.9	−2.8	−7.9±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.0±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1269 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Barbora	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.2	−1.4	−0.9	−5.5±2.7
FH crosscourt	27%	+0.5	+0.2	+0.9	+1.6±4.4
FH down the line	23%	−0.6	+2.7	+1.2	+3.3±5.2
FH slice through the middle	2%	−15.2	−1.2	−1.3	−17.7±1.8
FH slice down the line	2%	−14.1	−1.7	±0.0	−15.8±1.7

Lean FH down the line: +5.3±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (359 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Barbora	Value
BH through the middle	48%	−2.6	−1.0	−0.6	−4.2±2.0
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.5	−6.1	−2.1	−6.7±3.1
BH down the line	17%	−0.5	−0.4	−0.4	−1.3±5.0
BH slice through the middle	2%	−11.7	−0.9	−1.4	−14.0±1.7

Lean BH down the line: +3.4±4.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (637 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.