RallyIQ

Game plan

Camilo Ugo Carabelli v Alberto Berasategui

Every number combines what Camilo Ugo Carabelli does well with what Alberto Berasategui allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Camilo Ugo Carabelli wins, best of 3 52%90%: 16%–86% · best of 5: 53%
Serve points won 58.5% / 58.1% Camilo / Alberto · tour 61.3%
Strengths only, no similarity priors 52%serve 58.5% / 58.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Camilo Ugo Carabelli's record against Alberto Berasategui's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

CareerCamiloAlberto
Direction choice−0.26 ±0.08
better than 7%		+0.07 ±0.26
better than 75%
Shot selection−0.62 ±0.47
better than 8%		+0.48 ±0.67
better than 91%
Execution−0.37 ±0.45
better than 50%		−0.19 ±0.57
better than 58%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowCamilo winsv AlbertoMatchupOptimal
Wide31%75%75%77.1%±10.744% ▲
Body28%62%68%66.3%±13.115% ▼
T41%68%72%64.7%±11.841%

Optimal v Alberto Berasategui: +0.7±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +8.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowCamilo winsv AlbertoMatchupOptimal
Wide33%68%72%66.9%±10.646% ▲
Body14%59%65%61.7%±17.31% ▼
T52%67%71%65.9%±15.253%

Optimal v Alberto Berasategui: +0.4±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Alberto Berasategui serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowAlberto winsv CamiloMatchupOptimal
Wide32%60%70%56.4%±12.119% ▼
Body18%65%67%68.7%±13.618%
T50%69%74%68.2%±10.463% ▲

Optimal v Camilo Ugo Carabelli: +0.5±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +4.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowAlberto winsv CamiloMatchupOptimal
Wide48%72%67%66.4%±10.561% ▲
Body2%62%58%57.0%±18.70% ▼
T51%62%71%61.3%±11.739% ▼

Optimal v Camilo Ugo Carabelli: +0.2±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv AlbertoValue
FH through the middle39%+4.3±0.0+0.7+5.0±2.7
FH slice through the middle25%−4.2−1.2±0.0−5.4±1.6
FH down the line15%+1.7−2.2+1.7+1.2±3.8
FH crosscourt9%+5.5+0.1−1.4+4.3±3.2
FH slice down the line8%−4.3−1.2±0.0−5.4±1.7

Lean FH through the middle: +4.4±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (137 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv AlbertoValue
BH through the middle42%+6.4+1.5+0.9+8.7±2.8
BH crosscourt27%+8.8+0.5+1.0+10.3±3.5
BH down the line21%+4.2−0.4+2.0+5.8±4.6
BH slice down the line3%−8.4+0.2±0.0−8.2±1.6
BH slice through the middle3%−4.2+0.4−0.6−4.4±1.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.1±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (172 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv AlbertoValue
FH through the middle65%−3.5−0.6±0.0−4.1±2.0
FH down the line19%−1.8+0.2±0.0−1.6±2.3
FH crosscourt16%−0.2+0.9±0.0+0.7±2.1

Lean FH through the middle: −1.2±0.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (43 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv AlbertoValue
BH crosscourt33%+1.0±0.0+1.1+2.1±3.1
BH through the middle22%−2.9−2.0+0.7−4.2±2.3
FH through the middle19%−2.9+0.2±0.0−2.6±1.5
FH inside-out18%+1.0+1.0±0.0+2.0±2.3
BH down the line7%−0.2−3.6−0.1−3.9±3.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.8±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (94 returns charted)

Alberto Berasategui returning

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv CamiloValue
BH crosscourt39%+8.8+0.7−0.9+8.5±3.5
BH through the middle29%+6.4−2.9−1.0+2.5±2.8
BH slice through the middle18%−4.2+1.7−1.3−3.8±2.2
BH down the line10%+4.2−3.2−1.4−0.4±4.1
BH slice crosscourt4%+0.5+0.4−0.6+0.4±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.2±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (121 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv CamiloValue
FH inside-out28%+1.0+0.8+0.5+2.3±3.6
FH through the middle25%−2.9+0.2−0.5−3.2±2.3
BH crosscourt24%+1.0−1.1−0.9−1.0±3.1
FH inside-in15%+0.6−0.4+1.5+1.6±3.9
BH through the middle8%−2.9+0.7+0.6−1.6±2.1

Lean FH inside-out: +2.6±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (72 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH to the middle · return+7.8±3.6+4.0+3.8
BH to their backhand · return+6.6±4.4+2.3+4.2
FH to their forehand · rally+4.4±4.4+2.7+1.7
BH to the middle · rally+4.2±3.0+2.2+2.0
BH to their backhand · rally+2.6±2.9+1.2+1.4
FH to the middle · rally+1.9±3.3+2.3−0.4

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH to their forehand · rally−7.0±6.3−4.6−2.4
FH to their backhand · rally−0.8±3.8+0.9−1.7
FH to the middle · rally+1.9±3.3+2.3−0.4
BH to their backhand · rally+2.6±2.9+1.2+1.4
BH to the middle · rally+4.2±3.0+2.2+2.0

Alberto Berasategui

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH to the middle · rally+2.3±3.2+2.0+0.3
FH to their forehand · rally+0.5±4.0+1.6−1.1
FH to their backhand · return +1+0.3±5.5−2.1+2.4
FH to their forehand · serve +1+0.1±5.9+1.9−1.8
BH to their forehand · rally−0.7±6.1+3.1−3.8
FH to their backhand · serve +1−0.8±4.9+0.8−1.6

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH to their backhand · rally−4.7±3.2−2.2−2.5
BH to their backhand · rally−3.2±3.2−2.1−1.1
BH to the middle · rally−1.6±3.2−0.3−1.3
FH to their backhand · serve +1−0.8±4.9+0.8−1.6
BH to their forehand · rally−0.7±6.1+3.1−3.8

Against Alberto Berasategui-like opponents

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vMatchesServe pts wonReturn pts won
All charted opponents–57.6%39.9%