Game plan

Carla Suarez Navarro v Sloane Stephens

Every number combines what Carla Suarez Navarro does well with what Sloane Stephens allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Carla Suarez Navarro wins, best of 3 29%90%: 10%–57% · best of 5: 25%

Serve points won 53.5% / 57.7% Carla / Sloane · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 28%serve 53.4% / 57.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Carla Suarez Navarro's record against Sloane Stephens's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (head-to-head: +2.3 on serve, +2.8 on return vs expectation (213 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Carla	Sloane
Direction choice	−0.14 ±0.09 better than 28%	−0.12 ±0.11 better than 32%
Shot selection	−0.42 ±0.14 better than 16%	−0.16 ±0.14 better than 31%
Execution	+0.22 ±0.49 better than 69%	−0.13 ±0.58 better than 56%
Points left on the table	2.63 ±0.13 lower than 46%	2.62 ±0.13 lower than 48%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Carla Suarez Navarro serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Carla wins	v Sloane	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	62%	66%	62.0%±6.2	42%
Body	28%	54%	58%	54.9%±7.1	13% ▼
T	30%	65%	71%	68.2%±6.5	45% ▲

Optimal v Sloane Stephens: +1.0±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +6.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Carla wins	v Sloane	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	23%	63%	64%	60.6%±7.3	38% ▲
Body	35%	57%	59%	60.1%±7.8	34%
T	43%	56%	67%	58.9%±6.6	28% ▼

Optimal v Sloane Stephens: +0.4±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Sloane Stephens serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Sloane wins	v Carla	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	66%	69%	68.5%±5.2	65% ▲
Body	30%	56%	62%	60.3%±7.6	15% ▼
T	20%	63%	70%	65.1%±6.9	20%

Optimal v Carla Suarez Navarro: +0.4±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Sloane wins	v Carla	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	32%	60%	65%	58.6%±6.4	30% ▼
Body	13%	53%	59%	55.5%±9.5	0% ▼
T	55%	61%	71%	67.9%±5.6	70% ▲

Optimal v Carla Suarez Navarro: +0.8±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Carla Suarez Navarro returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sloane	Value
FH through the middle	50%	+4.2	+0.2	+1.2	+5.6±2.1
FH crosscourt	18%	+5.3	−3.5	+0.8	+2.5±3.8
FH down the line	13%	+1.5	+1.8	+0.6	+3.9±4.3
FH slice through the middle	12%	−6.7	+0.1	−1.7	−8.3±2.5
FH slice crosscourt	3%	−6.6	+1.5	−1.3	−6.4±2.5

Lean FH through the middle: +3.4±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (555 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sloane	Value
BH through the middle	37%	+6.0	+0.3	−0.4	+5.9±2.2
BH slice through the middle	21%	−6.2	−0.2	−0.4	−6.8±2.4
BH crosscourt	18%	+7.7	−1.5	+2.2	+8.4±3.2
BH down the line	10%	+2.2	−3.4	−1.0	−2.2±4.5
BH slice crosscourt	9%	−4.2	+0.6	±0.0	−3.6±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.3±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (567 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sloane	Value
FH through the middle	48%	−3.2	+1.2	−0.2	−2.2±3.1
FH down the line	27%	−0.6	−3.4	−0.9	−4.8±5.2
FH crosscourt	21%	+0.5	±0.0	+1.6	+2.2±4.3
FH slice through the middle	4%	−15.2	+0.2	±0.0	−15.0±1.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.7±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (120 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sloane	Value
BH through the middle	37%	−2.6	+0.3	−2.3	−4.5±2.4
BH crosscourt	27%	+1.5	−1.4	−0.5	−0.4±3.3
BH down the line	10%	−0.5	+0.6	−0.4	−0.3±5.2
FH through the middle	8%	−2.7	−0.6	−0.2	−3.5±2.6
FH inside-in	7%	+0.7	+2.0	+1.6	+4.4±4.6

Lean FH inside-in: +7.0±4.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (345 returns charted)

Sloane Stephens returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carla	Value
FH through the middle	37%	+4.2	+2.0	+1.6	+7.8±2.3
FH slice through the middle	20%	−6.7	−0.4	+0.2	−6.9±2.5
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.3	−1.5	+3.9	+7.6±4.0
FH down the line	13%	+1.5	−0.6	+0.7	+1.6±4.4
FH slice crosscourt	12%	−6.6	+0.3	+0.4	−6.0±2.5

Lean FH through the middle: +6.2±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (466 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carla	Value
BH through the middle	43%	+6.0	−0.1	±0.0	+5.9±2.1
BH crosscourt	32%	+7.7	+0.3	−3.5	+4.5±3.1
BH down the line	10%	+2.2	−3.1	+0.5	−0.5±4.5
BH slice through the middle	8%	−6.2	−2.7	+1.0	−7.8±2.6
BH slice crosscourt	4%	−4.2	−1.3	−1.1	−6.6±2.7

Lean BH through the middle: +3.3±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (509 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carla	Value
FH through the middle	58%	−3.2	+0.2	−0.4	−3.4±2.9
FH crosscourt	26%	+0.5	−1.5	+1.2	+0.3±4.2
FH down the line	10%	−0.6	−0.5	+0.5	−0.6±4.5
FH slice through the middle	6%	−15.2	−0.8	±0.0	−16.0±1.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.1±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (88 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carla	Value
BH through the middle	45%	−2.6	−0.9	−0.6	−4.1±2.4
BH crosscourt	41%	+1.5	−1.0	−2.5	−2.0±3.2
BH down the line	6%	−0.5	−0.1	+2.1	+1.4±5.0
FH through the middle	5%	−2.7	±0.0	−0.4	−3.1±2.3
FH inside-out	3%	+1.4	+2.3	+0.5	+4.2±3.6

Lean BH down the line: +4.0±5.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (299 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Carla Suarez Navarro

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · serve +1	+5.4±3.2	+3.4	+2.0
FH to the middle · return	+1.6±2.8	−0.3	+2.0
FH to their backhand · return	+1.6±5.1	+0.9	+0.6
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+1.6±4.3	+1.0	+0.6
FH to their backhand · return +1	+1.4±5.0	+1.3	+0.1
FH to the middle · rally	+0.4±2.6	−0.1	+0.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−14.4±6.5	−10.9	−3.4
BH to the middle · return +1	−7.7±3.1	−3.0	−4.7
BH to their forehand · return +1	−7.4±6.7	−2.0	−5.5
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−6.1±4.2	−3.1	−3.0
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−4.0±3.9	−0.5	−3.6

Sloane Stephens

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	+4.9±6.3	+5.7	−0.8
BH to their backhand · return +1	+4.7±4.2	+1.4	+3.3
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.2±4.8	+3.0	+0.2
FH to the middle · return +1	+2.4±3.5	+2.2	+0.2
FH to their forehand · return	+2.3±5.4	−1.5	+3.8
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.2±3.5	+1.8	+0.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return	−5.8±3.5	+0.5	−6.3
BH to the middle · return +1	−5.5±3.0	−4.6	−0.9
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−4.4±4.6	−0.6	−3.7
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−4.3±3.9	−1.8	−2.5
BH to their forehand · return	−3.9±6.0	−4.0	±0.0

Against Sloane Stephens-like opponents

Carla Suarez Navarro v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	54.2%	40.4%
Sloane Stephens (charted head-to-head)	1	56.4%	44.6%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Coco Gauff, Iva Jovic, Eva Lys, Marie Bouzkova, Kimberly Birrell, Emma Raducanu, Paula Badosa, Lin Zhu, Marion Bartoli. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.

Charted head-to-head

Carla Suarez Navarro v Sloane Stephens Roland Garros R128 · Clay · 1 Jun 2021