Game plan
Carlos Alcaraz v Luca Nardi
Every number combines what Carlos Alcaraz does well with what Luca Nardi allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Carlos Alcaraz's record against Luca Nardi's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +0.5 on serve, +0.9 on return vs expectation (4840 points); head-to-head: +1.7 on serve, −1.1 on return vs expectation (270 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Carlos | Luca |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.08 ±0.03 better than 77% | +0.01 ±0.12 better than 59% |
| Shot selection | +0.20 ±0.07 better than 73% | −0.20 ±0.39 better than 30% |
| Execution | +0.54 ±0.21 better than 85% | −1.30 ±1.09 better than 16% |
| Points left on the table | 2.43 ±0.05 lower than 70% | 2.26 ±0.25 lower than 87% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Carlos Alcaraz serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Carlos wins | v Luca | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 73% | 78% | 78.8%±6.4 | 59% ▲ |
| Body | 18% | 67% | 65% | 68.6%±9.2 | 4% ▼ |
| T | 37% | 77% | 76% | 78.0%±6.7 | 37% |
Optimal v Luca Nardi: +0.8±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Carlos wins | v Luca | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 49% | 72% | 77% | 75.9%±7.3 | 50% |
| Body | 16% | 66% | 72% | 73.9%±9.9 | 3% ▼ |
| T | 34% | 72% | 77% | 77.7%±7.5 | 47% ▲ |
Optimal v Luca Nardi: +0.7±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Luca Nardi serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Luca wins | v Carlos | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 69% | 66% | 62.6%±7.8 | 46% |
| Body | 16% | 63% | 61% | 61.3%±10.3 | 29% ▲ |
| T | 38% | 71% | 68% | 62.9%±8.7 | 25% ▼ |
Optimal v Carlos Alcaraz: +0.2±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +0.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Luca wins | v Carlos | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 49% | 73% | 67% | 67.6%±7.5 | 62% ▲ |
| Body | 14% | 54% | 58% | 49.4%±11.5 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 37% | 69% | 65% | 62.1%±8.6 | 38% |
Optimal v Carlos Alcaraz: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Carlos Alcaraz returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Luca | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 49% | +4.3 | +1.2 | −1.0 | +4.5±2.2 |
| FH crosscourt | 24% | +5.5 | +1.3 | −2.0 | +4.9±3.4 |
| FH down the line | 14% | +1.7 | +1.2 | −2.3 | +0.6±3.6 |
| FH slice through the middle | 8% | −4.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −4.0±1.1 |
| FH slice down the line | 2% | −4.3 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | −3.5±2.1 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +1.9±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (4205 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Luca | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 40% | +6.4 | +1.0 | +1.2 | +8.6±2.1 |
| BH crosscourt | 34% | +8.8 | +1.5 | −0.6 | +9.8±2.7 |
| BH slice through the middle | 10% | −4.2 | −2.3 | +0.8 | −5.7±2.0 |
| BH down the line | 7% | +4.2 | −0.5 | +0.7 | +4.5±3.5 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 6% | +0.5 | −1.3 | +0.1 | −0.6±2.2 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +3.6±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (4723 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Luca | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 42% | −3.5 | −1.0 | +1.4 | −3.1±2.3 |
| FH crosscourt | 36% | −0.2 | −0.2 | −2.1 | −2.6±3.5 |
| FH down the line | 17% | −1.8 | −1.0 | −1.4 | −4.2±3.8 |
| FH slice through the middle | 2% | −12.7 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −13.4±1.6 |
| FH slice down the line | 1% | −9.4 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | −11.0±1.7 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +0.7±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1132 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Luca | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 45% | +1.0 | +0.1 | +1.7 | +2.8±2.5 |
| BH through the middle | 27% | −2.9 | −2.1 | −0.3 | −5.2±2.0 |
| BH down the line | 9% | −0.2 | +1.4 | −1.0 | +0.2±4.1 |
| FH through the middle | 7% | −2.9 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | −1.5±2.2 |
| FH inside-in | 5% | +0.6 | −1.5 | −2.1 | −3.0±4.0 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +3.4±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (2787 returns charted)
Luca Nardi returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Carlos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 37% | +4.3 | −1.1 | +0.5 | +3.7±2.3 |
| FH slice through the middle | 24% | −4.2 | −3.0 | −1.5 | −8.7±1.9 |
| FH down the line | 18% | +1.7 | −1.8 | +1.0 | +0.9±3.3 |
| FH crosscourt | 15% | +5.5 | −3.8 | +0.8 | +2.5±3.0 |
| FH slice down the line | 6% | −4.3 | −2.0 | +0.9 | −5.3±2.5 |
Lean FH through the middle: +4.2±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (109 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Carlos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 42% | +8.8 | −3.8 | +0.7 | +5.7±2.7 |
| BH through the middle | 36% | +6.4 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +7.3±2.1 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 10% | +0.5 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −0.3±2.3 |
| BH slice down the line | 6% | −8.4 | −0.6 | −1.8 | −10.8±2.8 |
| BH slice through the middle | 6% | −4.2 | −0.7 | −2.8 | −7.7±1.5 |
Lean BH through the middle: +3.3±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (107 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Carlos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 59% | +1.0 | −1.0 | −0.2 | −0.2±2.4 |
| BH through the middle | 41% | −2.9 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −4.0±1.8 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +1.5±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (61 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.
Carlos Alcaraz
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | +5.7±3.2 | +2.2 | +3.5 |
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | +3.6±3.3 | +1.3 | +2.3 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | +3.2±2.9 | +1.7 | +1.5 |
| BH to their backhand · return | +1.9±2.4 | +1.0 | +0.9 |
| BH to the middle · return | +1.8±1.9 | +1.0 | +0.8 |
| BH to their backhand · serve +1 | +1.7±2.6 | +0.9 | +0.8 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · return | −2.5±3.5 | +0.4 | −2.9 |
| FH to the middle · rally | −1.1±1.9 | −0.6 | −0.5 |
| BH to the middle · rally | +0.2±1.7 | ±0.0 | +0.2 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | +0.2±1.9 | +0.5 | −0.3 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +0.9±2.4 | +1.6 | −0.7 |
Luca Nardi
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to the middle · rally | +0.4±1.7 | +0.8 | −0.4 |
| FH to the middle · rally | +0.2±1.9 | +0.7 | −0.5 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | −0.2±2.9 | +1.3 | −1.5 |
| FH to the middle · return | −0.5±2.2 | −1.6 | +1.1 |
| BH to the middle · return | −0.8±1.9 | −0.9 | +0.1 |
| BH to their backhand · serve +1 | −0.9±2.5 | −0.3 | −0.6 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | −5.4±3.1 | −3.2 | −2.2 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −3.5±2.6 | −2.0 | −1.5 |
| BH to their backhand · return | −3.3±2.4 | −3.8 | +0.5 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −3.0±2.5 | −0.8 | −2.2 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −2.8±1.8 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
Against Luca Nardi-like opponents
| Carlos Alcaraz v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 66.5% | 41.2% |
| Players most similar to Luca Nardi | 26 | 64.0% | 38.7% |
| Luca Nardi (charted head-to-head) | 2 | 71.4% | 44.4% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Jannik Sinner, Alejandro Tabilo, Pablo Carreno Busta, Taylor Fritz, Alexander Shevchenko, Alexandre Muller, Gregoire Barrere, Ilya Ivashka, Tennys Sandgren. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.