Game plan

Caroline Dolehide v Bianca Andreescu

Every number combines what Caroline Dolehide does well with what Bianca Andreescu allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Caroline Dolehide wins, best of 3 59%90%: 32%–83% · best of 5: 62%

Serve points won 60.9% / 59.1% Caroline / Bianca · tour 58.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 57%serve 60.9% / 59.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Caroline Dolehide's record against Bianca Andreescu's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −0.2 on serve, +5.0 on return vs expectation (248 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Caroline	Bianca
Direction choice	−0.27 ±0.08 better than 10%	−0.35 ±0.03 better than 4%
Shot selection	−0.67 ±0.37 better than 7%	−0.08 ±0.07 better than 36%
Execution	−0.35 ±0.61 better than 40%	−0.56 ±0.16 better than 31%
Points left on the table	3.14 ±0.17 lower than 6%	3.03 ±0.04 lower than 10%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Caroline Dolehide serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Caroline wins	v Bianca	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	68%	68%	69.7%±5.6	67% ▲
Body	22%	66%	56%	64.8%±7.8	7% ▼
T	26%	65%	66%	62.6%±7.9	26%

Optimal v Bianca Andreescu: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Caroline wins	v Bianca	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	65%	68%	67.4%±5.6	64% ▲
Body	25%	63%	57%	63.8%±7.8	10% ▼
T	26%	66%	64%	66.3%±8.4	26%

Optimal v Bianca Andreescu: +0.5±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Bianca Andreescu serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Bianca wins	v Caroline	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	67%	67%	67.9%±6.4	53% ▲
Body	30%	59%	61%	62.7%±8.1	14% ▼
T	32%	72%	63%	67.9%±6.9	33%

Optimal v Caroline Dolehide: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Bianca wins	v Caroline	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	67%	65%	66.6%±6.8	24% ▼
Body	27%	57%	60%	61.7%±8.5	27%
T	34%	65%	70%	70.1%±7.2	49% ▲

Optimal v Caroline Dolehide: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Caroline Dolehide returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Bianca	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.2	−2.8	−0.4	+0.9±2.3
FH crosscourt	20%	+5.3	−1.2	−0.7	+3.5±3.4
FH slice through the middle	16%	−6.7	+0.7	+0.2	−5.8±2.1
FH down the line	15%	+1.5	−4.2	−2.0	−4.7±3.6
FH slice crosscourt	4%	−6.6	+0.1	−2.7	−9.2±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.7±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (187 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Bianca	Value
BH through the middle	40%	+6.0	+1.3	−0.9	+6.4±2.2
BH slice through the middle	18%	−6.2	±0.0	+0.1	−6.2±2.2
BH crosscourt	14%	+7.7	+0.2	−1.2	+6.8±2.7
BH slice crosscourt	12%	−4.2	+0.3	−4.8	−8.6±2.8
BH down the line	10%	+2.2	−1.6	−4.7	−4.2±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.9±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (177 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Bianca	Value
FH through the middle	43%	−3.2	+0.6	−0.5	−3.1±2.2
FH down the line	34%	−0.6	−1.3	−0.7	−2.5±4.1
FH crosscourt	23%	+0.5	±0.0	−3.4	−2.9±3.1

Lean FH down the line: +0.3±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (47 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Bianca	Value
BH through the middle	51%	−2.6	+0.5	−0.8	−2.9±2.1
BH crosscourt	25%	+1.5	−1.1	−1.4	−1.0±2.7
FH through the middle	10%	−2.7	+0.1	−0.5	−3.1±1.6
BH down the line	8%	−0.5	−1.4	−3.0	−4.9±3.3
FH inside-out	6%	+1.4	−1.5	−0.7	−0.8±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.5±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (88 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Bianca Andreescu returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Caroline	Value
FH through the middle	51%	+4.2	+0.7	−5.1	−0.2±2.2
FH down the line	16%	+1.5	−3.9	−3.0	−5.4±3.9
FH slice through the middle	13%	−6.7	−1.5	−1.1	−9.3±2.0
FH crosscourt	13%	+5.3	−2.7	−4.9	−2.3±3.6
FH slice crosscourt	4%	−6.6	−3.1	−0.7	−10.4±2.4

Lean FH through the middle: +3.0±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (2739 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Caroline	Value
BH through the middle	55%	+6.0	−0.2	−0.4	+5.4±2.0
BH crosscourt	17%	+7.7	−1.3	−0.9	+5.5±2.8
BH down the line	16%	+2.2	+0.1	−0.4	+1.9±3.7
BH slice through the middle	7%	−6.2	−3.5	−0.9	−10.6±2.0
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.2	−3.7	±0.0	−7.9±2.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.7±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2846 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Caroline	Value
FH through the middle	51%	−3.2	+0.2	−2.1	−5.1±2.6
FH down the line	21%	−0.6	+0.8	−1.0	−0.7±4.6
FH crosscourt	19%	+0.5	+0.9	+3.1	+4.6±4.2
FH slice through the middle	6%	−15.2	−1.0	±0.0	−16.2±1.9
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−14.9	−1.6	±0.0	−16.5±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +7.9±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (778 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Caroline	Value
BH through the middle	48%	−2.6	+0.1	−3.0	−5.5±2.2
BH crosscourt	20%	+1.5	−1.1	−2.2	−1.8±3.2
BH down the line	19%	−0.5	+1.7	−0.4	+0.8±3.8
FH through the middle	5%	−2.7	+1.6	−2.1	−3.3±2.7
FH inside-out	3%	+1.4	−1.1	−1.0	−0.8±4.2
FH inside-in	3%	+0.7	+1.8	+3.1	+5.7±4.7

Lean FH inside-in: +8.7±4.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1462 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Caroline Dolehide

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+1.2±3.6	+2.6	−1.5
BH to the middle · return	−0.6±2.0	+1.1	−1.6
BH slice to the middle · rally	−0.8±2.6	+1.2	−2.0
BH to the middle · rally	−0.9±2.3	−1.4	+0.5
FH to their forehand · return +1	−1.0±3.8	+1.3	−2.4
BH to their backhand · return	−1.7±3.3	+0.2	−1.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return	−6.4±4.2	−5.5	−1.0
FH to their backhand · rally	−5.4±3.5	−3.1	−2.3
FH to the middle · serve +1	−2.7±2.5	−1.7	−1.0
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.6±3.3	−2.2	−0.4
FH to the middle · return	−2.6±2.4	−1.4	−1.2

Bianca Andreescu

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · serve +1	+2.8±2.6	+2.7	+0.1
BH to their backhand · return +1	+2.5±3.7	+1.4	+1.1
FH to their forehand · return +1	+1.6±4.0	+1.8	−0.2
FH to the middle · return +1	+1.1±2.8	+0.6	+0.5
BH to the middle · serve +1	+0.3±2.5	+1.3	−1.0
FH to the middle · rally	±0.0±2.3	+1.7	−1.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return	−8.4±4.1	−5.5	−2.9
FH to the middle · return	−5.6±2.4	−0.9	−4.7
BH to their backhand · rally	−5.1±3.0	+0.3	−5.4
FH to their forehand · return	−3.7±4.4	−1.8	−1.9
BH to their backhand · return	−3.2±3.3	−2.4	−0.8

Against Bianca Andreescu-like opponents

Caroline Dolehide v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	59.6%	43.8%
Players most similar to Bianca Andreescu	2	56.5%	47.6%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Cristina Bucsa, Karolina Muchova, Xin Yu Wang, Marta Kostyuk, Jasmine Paolini, Nadia Podoroska, Nao Hibino, Irina Camelia Begu, R, Andrea Petkovic. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.