Game plan

Caroline Wozniacki v Maria Kirilenko

Every number combines what Caroline Wozniacki does well with what Maria Kirilenko allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Caroline Wozniacki wins, best of 3 97%90%: 84%–100% · best of 5: 99%

Serve points won 62.1% / 48.2% Caroline / Maria · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 97%serve 62.1% / 48.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Caroline Wozniacki's record against Maria Kirilenko's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Caroline Wozniacki serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Caroline wins	v Maria	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	67%	65%	66.2%±8.8	57% ▲
Body	25%	62%	54%	58.7%±11.4	10% ▼
T	33%	71%	79%	80.9%±7.7	33%

Optimal v Maria Kirilenko: +1.0±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +11.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Caroline wins	v Maria	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	68%	63%	64.9%±9.9	35%
Body	24%	59%	57%	59.8%±11.2	9% ▼
T	41%	63%	71%	69.9%±8.2	56% ▲

Optimal v Maria Kirilenko: +0.9±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Maria Kirilenko serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Maria wins	v Caroline	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	63%	60%	57.6%±9.5	59% ▲
Body	24%	62%	50%	54.7%±11.5	9% ▼
T	32%	53%	63%	47.2%±10.9	32%

Optimal v Caroline Wozniacki: +0.4±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Maria wins	v Caroline	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	29%	70%	60%	65.3%±11.2	44% ▲
Body	20%	52%	47%	42.8%±11.4	4% ▼
T	51%	56%	59%	49.6%±9.4	52%

Optimal v Caroline Wozniacki: +1.4±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +12.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Caroline Wozniacki returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maria	Value
FH through the middle	52%	+4.2	+3.4	+0.6	+8.1±2.4
FH crosscourt	21%	+5.3	+3.9	+0.8	+10.0±3.5
FH down the line	16%	+1.5	+6.2	+0.7	+8.4±3.8
FH slice through the middle	7%	−6.7	−1.5	±0.0	−8.2±1.4
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−6.6	−1.7	±0.0	−8.3±2.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.2±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (2852 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maria	Value
BH through the middle	45%	+6.0	+2.8	+1.5	+10.4±2.3
BH crosscourt	36%	+7.7	+4.0	−0.3	+11.3±2.8
BH slice through the middle	9%	−6.2	−1.9	±0.0	−8.1±1.6
BH down the line	5%	+2.2	+5.0	−0.5	+6.6±4.0
BH slice down the line	3%	−12.5	−2.1	±0.0	−14.6±2.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.5±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1809 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maria	Value
FH through the middle	43%	−3.2	+3.7	−0.3	+0.2±2.5
FH down the line	29%	−0.6	+2.5	+2.6	+4.6±3.9
FH crosscourt	26%	+0.5	+3.0	−1.5	+2.1±3.5
BH inside-out	1%	+2.2	+0.3	+3.3	+5.8±3.4
BH through the middle	1%	−1.0	−0.3	+1.4	+0.2±2.0

Lean FH down the line: +2.8±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (983 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maria	Value
BH crosscourt	54%	+1.5	+3.5	+0.3	+5.2±2.8
BH through the middle	35%	−2.6	+4.1	+1.4	+3.0±2.4
BH down the line	12%	−0.5	+2.0	+3.3	+4.7±4.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.8±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (834 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Maria Kirilenko returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Caroline	Value
FH through the middle	40%	+4.2	+1.4	+0.9	+6.4±2.4
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.3	+0.7	+1.4	+7.5±3.2
FH down the line	17%	+1.5	−0.9	+3.6	+4.1±3.4
FH slice through the middle	11%	−6.7	+0.3	+0.3	−6.1±1.9
FH slice crosscourt	8%	−6.6	+0.1	−1.1	−7.6±2.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.7±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (88 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Caroline	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.0	−4.1	±0.0	+1.9±2.1
BH crosscourt	33%	+7.7	+1.4	+1.2	+10.3±2.7
BH slice crosscourt	13%	−4.2	−0.6	−0.1	−4.9±2.5
BH down the line	9%	+2.2	+0.5	−1.1	+1.6±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.5±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (54 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Caroline Wozniacki

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+10.2±4.5	+3.1	+7.1
BH to the middle · return	+5.5±3.1	+2.9	+2.6
BH to the middle · rally	+3.9±2.8	+2.7	+1.2
FH to the middle · return	+2.6±3.3	+4.3	−1.6
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.5±3.8	+1.8	+0.7
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.1±3.5	+2.4	−0.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+0.6±5.3	+4.0	−3.4
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.1±3.5	+2.4	−0.4
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.5±3.8	+1.8	+0.7
FH to the middle · return	+2.6±3.3	+4.3	−1.6
BH to the middle · rally	+3.9±2.8	+2.7	+1.2

Maria Kirilenko

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.9±3.8	+3.6	+0.3
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.6±4.5	+0.5	+1.1
FH to the middle · rally	+1.0±2.9	+1.1	±0.0
BH to the middle · rally	+0.6±2.8	−0.7	+1.3
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.7±3.5	−2.9	+0.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.7±3.5	−2.9	+0.2
BH to the middle · rally	+0.6±2.8	−0.7	+1.3
FH to the middle · rally	+1.0±2.9	+1.1	±0.0
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.6±4.5	+0.5	+1.1
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.9±3.8	+3.6	+0.3

Against Maria Kirilenko-like opponents

Caroline Wozniacki v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	59.8%	48.8%