Game plan
Claudia Kohde Kilsch v Karolina Muchova
Every number combines what Claudia Kohde Kilsch does well with what Karolina Muchova allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Claudia Kohde Kilsch serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Claudia wins | v Karolina | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 33% | 69% | 65% | 68.6%±10.9 | 48% ▲ |
| Body | 40% | 54% | 58% | 54.1%±11.1 | 25% ▼ |
| T | 26% | 59% | 69% | 60.2%±12.3 | 27% |
Optimal v Karolina Muchova: +0.8±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +8.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Claudia wins | v Karolina | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 20% | 67% | 66% | 67.2%±13.0 | 35% ▲ |
| Body | 42% | 55% | 54% | 52.1%±11.6 | 27% ▼ |
| T | 39% | 56% | 64% | 55.6%±11.9 | 38% |
Optimal v Karolina Muchova: +0.7±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +10.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Karolina Muchova serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Karolina wins | v Claudia | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 40% | 68% | 66% | 68.7%±11.1 | 40% |
| Body | 22% | 58% | 61% | 61.9%±11.3 | 7% ▼ |
| T | 38% | 74% | 66% | 72.8%±9.7 | 53% ▲ |
Optimal v Claudia Kohde Kilsch: +1.3±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Karolina wins | v Claudia | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 48% | 68% | 60% | 62.5%±9.9 | 46% ▼ |
| Body | 14% | 57% | 55% | 55.0%±13.9 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 39% | 67% | 67% | 69.5%±12.4 | 54% ▲ |
Optimal v Claudia Kohde Kilsch: +0.6±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Claudia Kohde Kilsch returning
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Karolina | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice crosscourt | 67% | −4.2 | +3.8 | −2.1 | −2.4±3.0 |
| BH slice through the middle | 33% | −6.2 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −7.5±2.3 |
Lean BH slice crosscourt: +1.7±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (58 returns charted)
Karolina Muchova returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Claudia | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 41% | +4.2 | +1.1 | −1.0 | +4.3±2.5 |
| FH slice through the middle | 18% | −6.7 | +3.0 | ±0.0 | −3.7±1.4 |
| FH crosscourt | 15% | +5.3 | −0.7 | −0.1 | +4.5±4.0 |
| FH down the line | 14% | +1.5 | −2.9 | +0.1 | −1.2±4.2 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 9% | −6.6 | +2.2 | ±0.0 | −4.5±1.9 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +3.7±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1182 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Claudia | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 46% | +6.0 | −0.4 | −1.6 | +4.0±2.1 |
| BH crosscourt | 20% | +7.7 | +0.9 | +0.1 | +8.8±2.7 |
| BH slice through the middle | 14% | −6.2 | +0.2 | +0.9 | −5.2±2.2 |
| BH down the line | 12% | +2.2 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | +1.0±2.9 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 5% | −4.2 | −0.8 | +0.7 | −4.3±2.6 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +6.3±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1188 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Claudia | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 43% | −3.2 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | −4.6±2.6 |
| FH crosscourt | 28% | +0.5 | −0.4 | +0.2 | +0.4±4.1 |
| FH down the line | 21% | −0.6 | −1.9 | −1.9 | −4.4±4.8 |
| FH slice through the middle | 5% | −15.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −15.1±1.5 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 3% | −14.9 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | −13.6±1.3 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +4.3±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (247 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Claudia | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 40% | −2.6 | +1.0 | −0.1 | −1.7±2.0 |
| BH crosscourt | 31% | +1.5 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +1.1±2.1 |
| BH down the line | 20% | −0.5 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.8±3.4 |
| FH inside-in | 5% | +0.7 | −1.9 | +0.2 | −0.9±4.3 |
| FH through the middle | 3% | −2.7 | +1.7 | ±0.0 | −1.0±2.2 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +1.7±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (582 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Claudia Kohde Kilsch
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | +5.0±2.6 | +5.7 | −0.6 |
| BH slice to their backhand · return | +1.1±3.9 | +4.8 | −3.7 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −5.4±3.1 | −3.3 | −2.1 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −9.1±3.4 | −6.2 | −2.9 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · rally | −9.1±3.4 | −6.2 | −2.9 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −5.4±3.1 | −3.3 | −2.1 |
| BH slice to their backhand · return | +1.1±3.9 | +4.8 | −3.7 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | +5.0±2.6 | +5.7 | −0.6 |
Karolina Muchova
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | +6.9±2.3 | +2.5 | +4.3 |
| BH slice to their forehand · rally | +3.8±3.4 | +1.8 | +2.0 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −0.4±3.1 | −1.0 | +0.6 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −3.3±3.5 | −1.6 | −1.7 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · rally | −3.3±3.5 | −1.6 | −1.7 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −0.4±3.1 | −1.0 | +0.6 |
| BH slice to their forehand · rally | +3.8±3.4 | +1.8 | +2.0 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | +6.9±2.3 | +2.5 | +4.3 |
Against Karolina Muchova-like opponents
| Claudia Kohde Kilsch v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 49.0% | 45.8% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Cristina Bucsa, Karolina Pliskova, Bianca Andreescu, Marta Kostyuk, Leylah Fernandez, Olivia Gadecki, Petra Martic, Alison Van Uytvanck, R, Kiki Bertens. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.