Game plan

Daniel Evans v Alexis Galarneau

Every number combines what Daniel Evans does well with what Alexis Galarneau allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Daniel Evans wins, best of 3 66%90%: 24%–93% · best of 5: 69%

Serve points won 58.3% / 55.2% Daniel / Alexis · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 66%serve 58.3% / 55.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Daniel Evans's record against Alexis Galarneau's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Daniel Evans serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Daniel wins	v Alexis	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	31%	74%	74%	75.5%±9.2	44% ▲
Body	12%	62%	63%	62.1%±14.2	0% ▼
T	57%	73%	74%	72.1%±10.4	56%

Optimal v Alexis Galarneau: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Daniel wins	v Alexis	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	56%	73%	74%	73.7%±9.9	65% ▲
Body	9%	57%	52%	45.6%±14.8	0% ▼
T	34%	67%	66%	61.0%±12.0	35%

Optimal v Alexis Galarneau: +0.4±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +7.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Alexis Galarneau serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alexis wins	v Daniel	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	69%	71%	66.8%±10.2	61% ▲
Body	20%	65%	63%	65.3%±12.8	7% ▼
T	33%	68%	73%	66.3%±11.4	32%

Optimal v Daniel Evans: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alexis wins	v Daniel	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	67%	70%	64.0%±9.6	50% ▼
Body	10%	61%	66%	64.1%±14.4	0% ▼
T	37%	76%	65%	70.2%±11.2	50% ▲

Optimal v Daniel Evans: +0.3±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Daniel Evans returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexis	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.3	+1.7	+0.6	+6.6±2.8
FH down the line	24%	+1.7	+1.8	+1.1	+4.6±3.9
FH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	+0.2	−0.4	−4.4±1.9
FH crosscourt	13%	+5.5	−1.0	+3.2	+7.7±4.2
FH slice down the line	6%	−4.3	+1.8	±0.0	−2.5±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.8±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (455 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexis	Value
BH slice through the middle	43%	−4.2	+0.5	+0.3	−3.4±1.7
BH slice crosscourt	27%	+0.5	+1.6	±0.0	+2.2±1.8
BH through the middle	12%	+6.4	+0.9	−0.9	+6.4±2.8
BH slice down the line	7%	−8.4	+0.3	+1.1	−7.0±3.0
BH crosscourt	6%	+8.8	−0.6	+0.9	+9.1±3.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +9.1±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (580 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexis	Value
FH through the middle	51%	−3.5	−0.4	−0.8	−4.7±2.8
FH down the line	32%	−1.8	+0.9	+1.2	+0.4±4.1
FH crosscourt	17%	−0.2	+3.4	−0.7	+2.5±3.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.3±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (103 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexis	Value
BH slice crosscourt	35%	−4.0	−2.1	±0.0	−6.2±1.6
BH slice through the middle	25%	−11.3	−1.2	±0.0	−12.5±1.6
BH through the middle	10%	−2.9	+0.5	−1.8	−4.2±2.5
FH through the middle	9%	−2.9	−0.5	−0.8	−4.2±2.4
FH inside-out	8%	+1.0	+1.1	+1.2	+3.3±3.3

Lean FH inside-out: +9.4±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (442 returns charted)

Alexis Galarneau returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniel	Value
FH through the middle	59%	+4.3	+0.4	+0.9	+5.6±2.7
FH down the line	23%	+1.7	+2.3	+5.9	+9.9±4.0
FH crosscourt	9%	+5.5	−1.9	±0.0	+3.6±3.5
FH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−0.8	−0.3	−5.3±1.9

Lean FH through the middle: +0.2±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (56 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniel	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	−2.5	+1.5	+5.4±2.3
BH crosscourt	30%	+8.8	−1.6	+1.0	+8.2±2.9
BH down the line	14%	+4.2	+0.7	+3.0	+7.9±3.8
BH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	−0.5	+0.1	−4.6±2.0

Lean BH through the middle: ±0.0±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (43 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Daniel Evans

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	+6.7±3.9	+4.5	+2.2
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.0±4.3	+1.8	+2.2
BH to their backhand · return	+2.2±4.8	+2.2	±0.0
BH to the middle · return	+1.1±3.8	+2.1	−1.0
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+1.0±3.0	+1.8	−0.8
FH to their forehand · rally	+0.2±4.5	+1.8	−1.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−0.6±5.9	+2.5	−3.1
FH to the middle · rally	−0.6±3.0	+1.5	−2.1
BH to the middle · rally	−0.4±3.3	−0.7	+0.4
FH to their forehand · rally	+0.2±4.5	+1.8	−1.6
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+1.0±3.0	+1.8	−0.8

Alexis Galarneau

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · rally	+2.7±3.0	+1.7	+1.0
FH to the middle · return	+2.5±3.7	+2.1	+0.4
FH to the middle · rally	+2.3±3.0	+1.8	+0.5
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.6±3.9	+0.9	−0.3
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.7±3.4	+0.8	−1.5
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.1±4.6	−0.6	−0.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.1±4.6	−0.6	−0.6
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.7±3.4	+0.8	−1.5
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.6±3.9	+0.9	−0.3
FH to the middle · rally	+2.3±3.0	+1.8	+0.5
FH to the middle · return	+2.5±3.7	+2.1	+0.4

Against Alexis Galarneau-like opponents

Daniel Evans v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	62.1%	37.6%