Game plan

Daniil Medvedev v Igor Andreev

Every number combines what Daniil Medvedev does well with what Igor Andreev allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Daniil Medvedev wins, best of 3 92%90%: 79%–97% · best of 5: 96%

Serve points won 67.1% / 56.2% Daniil / Igor · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 92%serve 67.1% / 56.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Daniil Medvedev's record against Igor Andreev's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Daniil	Igor
Direction choice	+0.01 ±0.04 better than 58%	−0.04 ±0.19 better than 45%
Shot selection	−0.06 ±0.04 better than 46%	±0.00 ±0.31 better than 52%
Execution	+1.24 ±0.16 better than 98%	−1.53 ±0.89 better than 9%
Points left on the table	2.31 ±0.06 lower than 84%	2.63 ±0.22 lower than 47%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Daniil Medvedev serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Daniil wins	v Igor	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	74%	71%	72.2%±6.5	62% ▲
Body	4%	63%	64%	63.4%±11.4	0% ▼
T	46%	78%	77%	80.0%±5.7	38% ▼

Optimal v Igor Andreev: +0.3±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Daniil wins	v Igor	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	78%	74%	79.1%±5.8	40% ▼
Body	5%	60%	63%	60.4%±13.0	0% ▼
T	47%	74%	75%	76.7%±6.6	60% ▲

Optimal v Igor Andreev: +0.5±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Igor Andreev serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Igor wins	v Daniil	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	75%	69%	70.9%±7.2	52% ▲
Body	6%	62%	58%	57.4%±12.4	0% ▼
T	55%	71%	71%	65.8%±6.6	48% ▼

Optimal v Daniil Medvedev: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Igor wins	v Daniil	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	61%	63%	69%	58.4%±6.4	48% ▼
Body	5%	59%	58%	53.8%±13.0	5%
T	34%	70%	70%	67.9%±7.8	47% ▲

Optimal v Daniil Medvedev: +0.5±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Daniil Medvedev returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Igor	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.3	+1.4	−0.3	+5.3±2.2
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.5	+3.4	±0.0	+8.9±3.2
FH down the line	15%	+1.7	−0.5	−2.4	−1.2±3.5
FH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−1.1	±0.0	−5.3±0.9
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	−0.1	±0.0	−4.4±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.5±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (5958 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Igor	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.4	+3.1	+0.1	+9.6±2.0
BH crosscourt	25%	+8.8	+2.4	−1.1	+10.1±2.7
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	+1.6	+1.1	+6.9±3.6
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−1.9	+2.1	−3.9±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	−4.5	+0.8	−3.1±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.1±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (4981 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Igor	Value
FH through the middle	50%	−3.5	+1.6	+0.6	−1.3±2.0
FH crosscourt	27%	−0.2	−1.0	+3.0	+1.7±3.3
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	+1.7	−0.3	−0.4±3.1
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−0.8	±0.0	−13.5±1.7
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	+1.2	−0.4	+0.9±2.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.4±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1558 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Igor	Value
BH through the middle	51%	−2.9	+2.9	−0.4	−0.4±1.9
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	+1.9	+0.8	+3.7±2.5
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	+1.2	−0.6	+0.5±3.7
FH through the middle	1%	−2.9	−1.0	+0.6	−3.3±2.3
FH inside-in	1%	+0.6	−2.8	+3.0	+0.7±3.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.5±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (2951 returns charted)

Igor Andreev returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
FH through the middle	37%	+4.3	−1.9	+1.6	+4.0±2.3
FH down the line	23%	+1.7	+0.2	−0.7	+1.1±3.5
FH crosscourt	21%	+5.5	−4.3	±0.0	+1.2±3.3
FH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	+0.1	+1.1	−3.1±1.6
FH slice down the line	8%	−4.3	+1.1	−0.7	−3.9±2.5

Lean FH through the middle: +2.7±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (146 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
BH through the middle	30%	+6.4	−2.2	+2.0	+6.2±2.1
BH slice through the middle	29%	−4.2	−1.3	−0.6	−6.1±1.9
BH crosscourt	15%	+8.8	−3.4	+1.0	+6.4±2.7
BH slice crosscourt	12%	+0.5	−1.0	−2.6	−3.1±2.3
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+3.1	+1.1	+8.4±3.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.9±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (148 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
FH through the middle	49%	−3.5	−0.6	+1.1	−3.0±2.0
FH crosscourt	30%	−0.2	−3.4	−1.3	−4.9±2.9
FH down the line	21%	−1.8	+0.1	−0.3	−2.0±3.0

Lean FH through the middle: +0.4±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (43 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
BH through the middle	32%	−2.9	−0.8	+0.4	−3.3±1.9
BH crosscourt	31%	+1.0	−3.5	+0.6	−1.9±2.5
FH inside-out	15%	+1.0	+2.6	−0.3	+3.3±2.8
FH through the middle	10%	−2.9	−1.2	+1.1	−3.0±1.6
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	−0.3	+1.6	+1.1±3.5

Lean FH inside-out: +4.8±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (147 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Daniil Medvedev

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+4.9±2.4	+3.0	+1.9
BH to the middle · rally	+3.5±2.3	+1.3	+2.3
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.0±3.1	+2.4	+0.7
BH to their backhand · return	+2.8±3.3	+1.7	+1.1
FH to the middle · return	+2.6±3.0	+1.9	+0.6
BH slice to the middle · return	+2.0±2.8	−1.0	+3.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−5.5±4.0	−2.4	−3.2
BH to their backhand · return +1	−4.5±3.8	+2.2	−6.7
BH slice to their backhand · return	−3.4±3.6	−4.3	+0.9
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.2±3.2	−0.6	−1.6
FH to their forehand · return +1	−0.9±4.6	+2.8	−3.7

Igor Andreev

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · rally	+2.3±2.4	+1.0	+1.3
FH to their backhand · return	+1.7±4.4	+1.7	±0.0
FH to the middle · rally	+1.1±2.3	−0.5	+1.6
FH to their forehand · return +1	+0.8±4.8	−0.9	+1.7
BH to the middle · return	−0.4±2.8	−1.4	+1.0
FH to their forehand · rally	−0.7±2.9	−2.3	+1.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	−8.9±5.1	−7.2	−1.6
BH to their backhand · return	−7.9±3.7	−7.8	−0.2
BH to their backhand · rally	−4.2±2.8	−3.9	−0.3
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.9±2.6	−2.6	−0.2
FH to the middle · return	−2.4±2.9	−3.8	+1.4

Against Igor Andreev-like opponents

Daniil Medvedev v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	66.1%	39.4%