RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 7 charted matches · 2004–2010

Igor Andreev

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.5% ±3.4 raw 58.3% · tour 63.4% · 719 points
Return points won 37.9% ±3.5 raw 34.3% · tour 36.6% · 668 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.04 ±0.19 better than 45% of ATP · raw −0.05
Shot selection ±0.00 ±0.31 better than 52% of ATP · raw −0.02
Execution −1.53 ±0.89 better than 9% of ATP · raw −1.79
Points left on the table 2.63 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 47% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,445 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Igor Andreev goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 184 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 27% 47.1%±9.9 47.6%
BH through the middle 22% 34.6%±10.1 43.7%
FH inside-out 20% 45.3%±10.9 51.8%
FH inside-in 10% 46.0%±13.1 54.7%
BH slice crosscourt 7% 50.0%±14.3 42.5%
BH down the line 6% 42.8%±14.6 46.4%
BH slice through the middle 5% 36.8%±14.5 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 170 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 39% 52.1%±8.8 51.5%
FH crosscourt 25% 45.3%±10.3 52.7%
FH through the middle 16% 42.5%±11.7 47.0%
BH through the middle 6% 43.1%±14.6 46.8%
BH crosscourt 6% 36.1%±14.4 49.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 135 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 47% 40.1%±8.9 46.6%
FH through the middle 27% 34.5%±10.4 41.5%
FH down the line 27% 42.8%±10.9 44.7%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 124 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 29% 38.6%±10.7 48.0%
BH through the middle 23% 42.4%±11.6 43.8%
BH slice crosscourt 14% 30.9%±12.5 42.1%
FH inside-out 11% 54.5%±14.0 52.6%
BH down the line 10% 35.3%±13.9 46.5%
BH slice through the middle 8% 26.7%±13.3 35.1%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index ±0 How much less varied Igor Andreev's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 75 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 38% 57% ▲ 75% / 73%
Body 6% 5% 62% / 63%
T 56% 38% ▼ 71% / 75%

348 normal · 21 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 60% 65% 63% / 73%
Body 5% 7% 59% / 63%
T 35% 28% 70% / 72%

282 normal · 54 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide39% 62.3%±6.0 n=145 52% ▲
Body6% 58.5%±11.2 n=22 0% ▼
T55% 61.1%±5.3 n=202 48% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.77).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide61% 54.5%±5.4 n=204 53% ▼
Body5% 52.3%±11.9 n=18 0% ▼
T34% 56.9%±6.8 n=114 47% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.70).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.34 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +4.2±2.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (304 repeats, 387 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 14 37% −0.4±11.9
1stAd courtT 79 25% −2.9±6.8
1stAd courtWide 91 26% −1.5±6.5
1stDeuce courtBody 25 36% −0.3±10.7
1stDeuce courtT 94 23% −2.1±6.2
1stDeuce courtWide 100 29% +2.2±6.6
2ndAd courtBody 11 43% −5.9±12.7
2ndAd courtT 20 48% −1.7±11.6
2ndAd courtWide 92 49% +0.4±7.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 31 50% +1.3±10.5
2ndDeuce courtT 71 48% −1.3±8.2
2ndDeuce courtWide 33 42% −6.1±10.2

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Igor Andreev's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 7.1% · won 63% · −1.9±9.8 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 5.6% · won 62% · −2.9±10.5 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 4.4% · won 56% · −9.3±11.5 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 7.5% · won 57% · −8.4±9.9 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (ad court) → FH inside-out used 6.0% · won 54% · −11.8±10.6 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 10.6% · won 38% · +5.8±11.1 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 12.0% · won 35% · +3.8±10.6 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 4.7% · won 45% · +5.3±11.5 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 6.5% · won 42% · +2.6±10.6 vs own baseline
  3. BH through the middle → FH down the line used 4.7% · won 41% · +1.4±11.4 vs own baseline
  4. FH down the line → FH inside-out used 4.5% · won 38% · −1.8±11.4 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 5.8% · won 37% · −2.3±10.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Igor Andreev wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 49% · +6.6±12.7 vs own baseline · +9.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Nicolas Kiefer (3/6)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 1.1% · won 42% · −0.2±12.3 vs own baseline · −9.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Nicolas Kiefer (3/10)
  3. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 42% · −0.6±12.6 vs own baseline · −13.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Nicolas Kiefer (0/8)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.0% · won 41% · −1.6±12.4 vs own baseline · −5.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (4/11)
  5. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 41% · −2.0±12.7 vs own baseline · −8.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (4/10)
  6. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 1.2% · won 41% · −2.1±11.9 vs own baseline · −14.6 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.3204
FH to the middle · rally−0.3130
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.4202
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.6145
FH to their backhand · serve +1−1.3154

Most exposed to

BH to the middle · return−0.8146
FH to their forehand · rally−0.6199
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.5143
BH to their backhand · rally−0.2167
T 1st serve · deuce court+0.1181

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Juan Carlos Prado Angelo, Cameron Norrie, Daniil Medvedev, Dusan Lajovic, Ugo Humbert

Charted matches