Game plan

Daria Saville v Samantha Stosur

Every number combines what Daria Saville does well with what Samantha Stosur allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Daria Saville wins, best of 3 53%90%: 27%–77% · best of 5: 54%

Serve points won 56.9% / 56.3% Daria / Samantha · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 50%serve 56.8% / 56.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Daria Saville's record against Samantha Stosur's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +1.5 on serve, +5.7 on return vs expectation (266 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Daria	Samantha
Direction choice	+0.06 ±0.20 better than 67%	+0.02 ±0.07 better than 56%
Shot selection	−0.41 ±0.34 better than 16%	−0.03 ±0.15 better than 43%
Execution	+0.28 ±0.46 better than 71%	−0.51 ±0.60 better than 32%
Points left on the table	2.68 ±0.22 lower than 36%	2.77 ±0.11 lower than 26%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Daria Saville serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Daria wins	v Samantha	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	59%	74%	68.5%±7.2	58% ▲
Body	21%	55%	58%	56.2%±9.8	5% ▼
T	37%	64%	68%	65.1%±7.5	37%

Optimal v Samantha Stosur: +0.8±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Daria wins	v Samantha	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	56%	62%	65%	61.3%±7.3	55%
Body	16%	55%	58%	56.4%±10.5	1% ▼
T	28%	61%	69%	65.7%±8.4	44% ▲

Optimal v Samantha Stosur: +0.7±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Samantha Stosur serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Samantha wins	v Daria	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	68%	59%	61.2%±8.2	38%
Body	19%	56%	56%	55.2%±10.7	4% ▼
T	43%	64%	68%	64.6%±7.4	58% ▲

Optimal v Daria Saville: +0.6±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Samantha wins	v Daria	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	64%	61%	59.7%±7.7	38%
Body	15%	59%	60%	63.0%±11.7	0% ▼
T	46%	73%	68%	76.4%±6.6	62% ▲

Optimal v Daria Saville: +1.3±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +8.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Daria Saville returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Samantha	Value
FH through the middle	50%	+4.2	+1.4	−0.2	+5.4±2.7
FH crosscourt	25%	+5.3	−0.2	+0.9	+6.0±4.3
FH down the line	17%	+1.5	−1.5	−0.9	−0.9±4.6
FH slice through the middle	5%	−6.7	+0.6	−1.1	−7.2±2.3
BH through the middle	3%	+5.2	+0.7	+0.5	+6.5±2.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.1±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (208 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Samantha	Value
BH through the middle	36%	+6.0	+1.9	+0.5	+8.4±2.5
BH slice through the middle	21%	−6.2	−0.4	−0.4	−7.0±2.6
BH crosscourt	17%	+7.7	−1.9	+1.9	+7.6±3.4
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	+1.5	−2.4	+1.3±4.6
BH slice crosscourt	12%	−4.2	−1.7	±0.0	−5.9±2.9

Lean BH through the middle: +6.4±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (273 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Samantha	Value
FH down the line	38%	−0.6	+2.3	−3.7	−2.0±5.0
FH through the middle	38%	−3.2	−1.6	+1.0	−3.7±2.9
FH crosscourt	25%	+0.5	−1.1	−0.4	−1.0±4.1

Lean FH down the line: +0.4±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (56 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Samantha	Value
BH through the middle	26%	−2.6	+0.1	+1.5	−1.0±2.5
FH inside-out	23%	+1.4	+0.7	−3.7	−1.7±4.3
BH crosscourt	20%	+1.5	+0.7	+2.3	+4.5±3.5
FH through the middle	18%	−2.7	−0.7	+1.0	−2.4±2.6
BH down the line	9%	−0.5	+0.6	+1.7	+1.8±4.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.5±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (180 returns charted)

Samantha Stosur returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daria	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.2	−0.1	+0.1	+4.1±2.8
FH down the line	22%	+1.5	−1.2	+0.8	+1.1±4.7
FH crosscourt	20%	+5.3	−3.6	+3.5	+5.2±4.3
FH slice through the middle	6%	−6.7	+0.4	+1.2	−5.1±2.4
FH slice crosscourt	3%	−6.6	−0.9	+0.4	−7.1±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.5±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (355 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daria	Value
BH through the middle	37%	+6.0	+0.4	+0.2	+6.6±2.4
BH crosscourt	19%	+7.7	−1.2	+0.9	+7.4±3.4
BH slice through the middle	15%	−6.2	−0.3	−2.0	−8.6±2.4
BH down the line	14%	+2.2	+3.5	+0.4	+6.0±4.7
BH slice crosscourt	9%	−4.2	−2.1	+1.8	−4.5±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.4±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (468 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daria	Value
FH through the middle	34%	−3.2	+2.8	+0.6	+0.2±3.1
FH crosscourt	32%	+0.5	−3.5	+1.3	−1.6±4.5
FH down the line	29%	−0.6	−4.2	−1.9	−6.7±5.2
FH slice through the middle	5%	−15.2	+0.6	±0.0	−14.6±1.1

Lean FH through the middle: +3.3±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (111 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daria	Value
FH through the middle	21%	−2.7	±0.0	+0.6	−2.1±2.7
BH through the middle	20%	−2.6	−0.5	−0.5	−3.6±2.8
FH inside-in	18%	+0.7	+0.1	+1.3	+2.2±4.8
FH inside-out	14%	+1.4	+0.8	−1.9	+0.2±4.3
BH slice crosscourt	9%	−7.5	−2.3	+0.2	−9.6±2.3
BH crosscourt	9%	+1.5	+0.4	+0.5	+2.3±3.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.5±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (247 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Daria Saville

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return	+5.8±4.4	+2.2	+3.6
BH to the middle · return	+5.5±2.9	+4.0	+1.5
BH to their backhand · return +1	+4.4±4.7	+3.3	+1.1
BH to the middle · rally	+4.1±2.6	+3.3	+0.8
BH to the middle · return +1	+3.6±3.5	+1.7	+1.9
FH to their forehand · return +1	+3.6±5.1	+5.4	−1.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to the middle · rally	−5.3±3.3	−0.6	−4.7
FH to their backhand · return	−3.6±5.7	−0.4	−3.2
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.0±3.0	−0.6	−1.5
BH to their forehand · return	−1.3±6.2	±0.0	−1.3
FH to their forehand · return	−1.1±5.9	−1.3	+0.2

Samantha Stosur

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+5.0±4.4	+1.7	+3.3
FH to the middle · return +1	+4.0±3.8	+0.2	+3.8
BH to the middle · return	+2.8±2.9	+1.6	+1.2
BH to their backhand · return	+2.0±4.6	+0.2	+1.8
FH to the middle · rally	+1.6±2.6	±0.0	+1.6
FH to their forehand · return	+1.0±5.2	−3.8	+4.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	−4.7±5.3	−2.4	−2.3
BH to their forehand · rally	−4.0±5.7	−1.2	−2.8
FH to their backhand · return	−3.4±5.6	−1.9	−1.5
BH to the middle · return +1	−0.8±3.9	−1.9	+1.1
FH to the middle · serve +1	−0.2±3.6	+0.1	−0.3

Against Samantha Stosur-like opponents

Daria Saville v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	53.7%	43.0%
Players most similar to Samantha Stosur	1	54.7%	46.0%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Madison Keys, Karolina Muchova, Rebecca Sramkova, Diane Parry, Peyton Stearns, Katie Boulter, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Christina Mchale, Ana Ivanovic. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.