Game plan

Darja Vidmanova v Bibiane Schoofs

Every number combines what Darja Vidmanova does well with what Bibiane Schoofs allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Darja Vidmanova wins, best of 3 94%90%: 66%–100% · best of 5: 97%

Serve points won 60.8% / 49.3% Darja / Bibiane · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 94%serve 60.8% / 49.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Darja Vidmanova's record against Bibiane Schoofs's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Darja Vidmanova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Darja wins	v Bibiane	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	61%	71%	66.7%±11.2	51%
Body	19%	57%	50%	50.3%±15.8	3% ▼
T	31%	68%	74%	74.5%±13.1	46% ▲

Optimal v Bibiane Schoofs: +1.2±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +8.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Darja wins	v Bibiane	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	69%	63%	66.2%±12.8	47% ▼
Body	11%	53%	55%	51.8%±15.8	0% ▼
T	38%	64%	60%	58.7%±14.1	53% ▲

Optimal v Bibiane Schoofs: +0.6±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Bibiane Schoofs serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Bibiane wins	v Darja	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	33%	62%	59%	55.1%±13.2	48% ▲
Body	34%	47%	59%	48.8%±13.9	19% ▼
T	33%	65%	64%	60.7%±14.4	33%

Optimal v Darja Vidmanova: +0.6±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Bibiane wins	v Darja	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	61%	62%	57.9%±12.9	45%
Body	28%	51%	59%	54.6%±14.9	13% ▼
T	27%	55%	67%	57.8%±15.0	42% ▲

Optimal v Darja Vidmanova: +0.5±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Darja Vidmanova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Bibiane	Value
FH slice through the middle	43%	−6.7	+1.0	±0.0	−5.7±1.8
FH through the middle	31%	+4.2	+2.0	+2.8	+9.0±3.1
FH slice crosscourt	16%	−6.6	+1.2	±0.0	−5.4±1.6
FH down the line	11%	+1.5	+0.5	−0.8	+1.2±3.7

Lean FH through the middle: +9.4±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (75 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Bibiane	Value
BH through the middle	55%	+6.0	+1.6	+1.0	+8.7±2.9
BH crosscourt	23%	+7.7	+2.4	+0.3	+10.4±3.3
BH down the line	22%	+2.2	−0.8	+1.7	+3.1±4.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.6±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (64 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Bibiane Schoofs returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Darja	Value
FH through the middle	40%	+4.2	+1.1	−1.7	+3.6±3.1
FH slice through the middle	21%	−6.7	−0.5	+0.8	−6.4±2.3
FH down the line	17%	+1.5	−0.6	−1.5	−0.6±3.7
FH crosscourt	12%	+5.3	+0.8	−2.1	+4.0±3.7
FH slice crosscourt	12%	−6.6	−0.1	±0.0	−6.7±1.4

Lean FH through the middle: +3.9±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (78 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Darja	Value
BH through the middle	33%	+6.0	−1.6	+0.1	+4.6±2.7
BH crosscourt	22%	+7.7	−1.5	+0.5	+6.7±3.2
BH slice through the middle	22%	−6.2	+0.5	+0.6	−5.1±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	13%	−4.2	+0.6	±0.0	−3.6±1.3
BH slice down the line	11%	−12.5	−0.6	±0.0	−13.0±2.1

Lean BH through the middle: +4.6±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (46 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Darja Vidmanova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	+8.3±4.5	+4.0	+4.3
FH to the middle · rally	+6.3±3.6	+3.0	+3.4
BH to their backhand · rally	+6.0±5.1	+3.6	+2.5
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.9±5.3	+4.6	+0.3
BH to the middle · return	+4.3±4.0	+2.0	+2.3
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.6±6.1	+4.2	−0.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · rally	+3.6±3.1	+4.1	−0.5
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.6±6.1	+4.2	−0.6
BH to the middle · return	+4.3±4.0	+2.0	+2.3
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.9±5.3	+4.6	+0.3
BH to their backhand · rally	+6.0±5.1	+3.6	+2.5

Bibiane Schoofs

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · rally	+3.5±3.7	+2.0	+1.5
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.9±5.0	−4.2	+7.0
FH to the middle · return	+2.5±4.5	+3.2	−0.7
FH to their forehand · rally	−0.8±4.6	−3.8	+3.0
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.2±5.3	−1.0	−0.3
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−6.6±6.2	−0.5	−6.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−6.6±6.2	−0.5	−6.1
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.2±5.3	−1.0	−0.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−0.8±4.6	−3.8	+3.0
FH to the middle · return	+2.5±4.5	+3.2	−0.7
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.9±5.0	−4.2	+7.0

Against Bibiane Schoofs-like opponents

Darja Vidmanova v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	57.2%	46.4%