Game plan

Darja Vidmanova v Veronika Erjavec

Every number combines what Darja Vidmanova does well with what Veronika Erjavec allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Darja Vidmanova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Darja wins	v Veronika	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	61%	74%	69.5%±12.5	51%
Body	19%	57%	54%	53.7%±16.4	3% ▼
T	31%	68%	70%	70.7%±12.9	46% ▲

Optimal v Veronika Erjavec: +1.2±1.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Darja wins	v Veronika	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	69%	70%	73.1%±11.8	47% ▼
Body	11%	53%	51%	47.6%±18.0	0% ▼
T	38%	64%	71%	70.2%±13.2	53% ▲

Optimal v Veronika Erjavec: +0.7±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Veronika Erjavec serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Veronika wins	v Darja	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	65%	59%	57.7%±14.2	54% ▲
Body	14%	58%	59%	59.8%±16.0	2% ▼
T	42%	60%	64%	56.0%±15.5	44% ▲

Optimal v Darja Vidmanova: ±0.0±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +2.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Veronika wins	v Darja	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	71%	62%	67.4%±13.7	58% ▲
Body	18%	53%	59%	56.3%±16.3	3% ▼
T	40%	67%	67%	69.3%±13.9	39%

Optimal v Darja Vidmanova: +0.7±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Darja Vidmanova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Veronika	Value
FH slice through the middle	43%	−6.7	+1.0	−1.5	−7.2±2.1
FH through the middle	31%	+4.2	+2.0	+2.4	+8.6±3.0
FH slice crosscourt	16%	−6.6	+1.2	±0.0	−5.4±1.6
FH down the line	11%	+1.5	+0.5	+0.3	+2.3±3.3

Lean FH through the middle: +9.6±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (75 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Veronika	Value
BH through the middle	55%	+6.0	+1.6	+1.6	+9.3±2.9
BH crosscourt	23%	+7.7	+2.4	−0.9	+9.2±3.3
BH down the line	22%	+2.2	−0.8	±0.0	+1.4±2.8

Lean BH through the middle: +1.8±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (64 returns charted)

Veronika Erjavec returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Darja	Value
FH crosscourt	36%	+5.3	−2.8	−2.1	+0.4±3.9
FH down the line	33%	+1.5	−0.2	−1.5	−0.2±3.7
FH through the middle	31%	+4.2	−2.5	−1.7	±0.0±2.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +0.3±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (42 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Darja	Value
BH through the middle	34%	+6.0	+0.2	+0.1	+6.3±2.8
BH crosscourt	19%	+7.7	+0.4	+0.5	+8.6±3.2
BH down the line	19%	+2.2	+1.2	−2.6	+0.8±3.6
BH slice crosscourt	17%	−4.2	+0.1	±0.0	−4.1±1.5
BH slice through the middle	11%	−6.2	−0.3	+0.6	−6.0±1.6

Lean BH through the middle: +3.7±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (47 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Darja Vidmanova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	+5.4±3.5	+2.9	+2.5
BH to the middle · rally	+4.7±2.3	+3.5	+1.2
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.7±3.9	+3.6	+1.1
BH to the middle · return	+3.1±3.5	+3.1	±0.0
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.1±4.4	+3.0	−0.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.1±4.4	+3.0	−0.8
BH to the middle · return	+3.1±3.5	+3.1	±0.0
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.7±3.9	+3.6	+1.1
BH to the middle · rally	+4.7±2.3	+3.5	+1.2
BH to their backhand · rally	+5.4±3.5	+2.9	+2.5

Veronika Erjavec

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+6.5±4.5	+0.4	+6.1
FH to their forehand · rally	+5.6±4.6	+1.8	+3.8
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.2±3.6	+0.2	−0.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.2±3.6	+0.2	−0.4
FH to their forehand · rally	+5.6±4.6	+1.8	+3.8
FH to their backhand · rally	+6.5±4.5	+0.4	+6.1

Against Veronika Erjavec-like opponents

Darja Vidmanova v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	57.2%	46.4%