Game plan

David Ferrer v Pablo Carreno Busta

Every number combines what David Ferrer does well with what Pablo Carreno Busta allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

David Ferrer wins, best of 3 56%90%: 29%–80% · best of 5: 57%

Serve points won 62.4% / 61.3% David / Pablo · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 56%serve 62.4% / 61.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by David Ferrer's record against Pablo Carreno Busta's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	David	Pablo
Direction choice	−0.03 ±0.06 better than 48%	−0.01 ±0.09 better than 54%
Shot selection	+0.44 ±0.08 better than 89%	−0.04 ±0.12 better than 48%
Execution	+0.21 ±0.29 better than 76%	+0.75 ±0.44 better than 90%
Points left on the table	2.21 ±0.08 lower than 92%	2.31 ±0.13 lower than 82%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

David Ferrer serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	David wins	v Pablo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	67%	77%	71.3%±4.1	52% ▲
Body	20%	61%	62%	59.8%±8.6	7% ▼
T	36%	67%	78%	71.4%±4.6	41% ▲

Optimal v Pablo Carreno Busta: +0.7±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	David wins	v Pablo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	67%	75%	70.0%±4.5	51% ▲
Body	17%	57%	62%	56.6%±8.6	4% ▼
T	44%	63%	74%	65.8%±4.9	45%

Optimal v Pablo Carreno Busta: +0.8±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Pablo Carreno Busta serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Pablo wins	v David	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	70%	74%	71.0%±3.9	61% ▲
Body	19%	65%	60%	61.2%±6.8	6% ▼
T	32%	68%	73%	66.1%±5.0	33%

Optimal v David Ferrer: +0.5±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Pablo wins	v David	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	71%	71%	68.9%±4.4	35% ▼
Body	14%	66%	62%	64.6%±7.5	14%
T	38%	66%	74%	68.2%±4.6	51% ▲

Optimal v David Ferrer: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

David Ferrer returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pablo	Value
FH through the middle	45%	+4.3	−0.9	+1.7	+5.0±1.8
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.5	−0.8	−1.9	+2.9±3.6
FH down the line	19%	+1.7	−0.6	+0.4	+1.5±3.7
FH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−0.6	−0.3	−5.2±2.2
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	+0.5	+0.5	−3.2±3.1

Lean FH through the middle: +2.6±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1210 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pablo	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	−0.5	−0.3	+5.6±1.7
BH crosscourt	28%	+8.8	+3.1	+1.6	+13.6±2.6
BH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−0.3	+1.4	−3.1±2.2
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	+2.6	+2.4	+9.2±4.2
BH slice down the line	4%	−8.4	−3.6	+0.1	−11.9±3.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.1±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1260 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pablo	Value
FH through the middle	40%	−3.5	+1.5	+0.7	−1.3±2.5
FH down the line	35%	−1.8	+3.0	−0.1	+1.2±4.5
FH crosscourt	19%	−0.2	−0.2	+3.3	+2.9±4.3
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−1.0	−0.4	−14.1±1.7
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	+0.1	+0.6	+0.8±1.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.9±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (339 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pablo	Value
BH crosscourt	54%	+1.0	+0.4	+1.3	+2.8±2.2
BH through the middle	33%	−2.9	−0.1	+0.6	−2.4±1.8
BH down the line	4%	−0.2	+1.9	−1.4	+0.2±4.9
FH through the middle	4%	−2.9	+0.4	+0.7	−1.9±2.2
FH inside-out	3%	+1.0	+2.4	−0.1	+3.3±3.6
FH inside-in	2%	+0.6	+3.1	+3.3	+7.0±4.1

Lean FH inside-in: +6.1±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (945 returns charted)

Pablo Carreno Busta returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v David	Value
FH through the middle	40%	+4.3	+1.3	+1.4	+7.0±1.9
FH slice through the middle	20%	−4.2	−0.3	+0.8	−3.7±2.2
FH crosscourt	18%	+5.5	+0.9	−0.6	+5.8±3.7
FH down the line	11%	+1.7	+2.0	+4.2	+7.9±3.8
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	+0.8	−1.1	−4.5±3.2

Lean FH down the line: +4.3±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (638 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v David	Value
BH through the middle	40%	+6.4	+1.6	+1.1	+9.1±1.8
BH crosscourt	25%	+8.8	−0.1	+1.4	+10.1±2.7
BH slice through the middle	18%	−4.2	−1.1	+1.5	−3.9±2.1
BH down the line	8%	+4.2	+3.0	+1.1	+8.2±4.2
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−2.3	+2.6	+0.9±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.2±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (665 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v David	Value
FH through the middle	51%	−3.5	+0.7	+1.1	−1.7±2.4
FH crosscourt	29%	−0.2	−1.4	+1.4	−0.2±4.3
FH down the line	19%	−1.8	−0.1	+1.0	−0.9±4.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +0.9±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (195 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v David	Value
BH crosscourt	40%	+1.0	−1.7	+1.4	+0.7±2.4
BH through the middle	36%	−2.9	+0.2	±0.0	−2.7±1.8
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	+3.3	−0.1	+3.0±4.4
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	−1.3	+1.1	−3.2±2.1
FH inside-out	3%	+1.0	−0.5	+1.0	+1.5±3.1

Lean BH down the line: +3.6±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (495 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

David Ferrer

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	+5.9±4.1	+1.7	+4.1
BH to their forehand · return	+5.5±3.5	+4.4	+1.1
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+4.9±5.9	+4.5	+0.4
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.9±2.4	+1.3	+2.6
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.2±1.3	+1.0	+2.2
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.6±2.2	+0.7	+1.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−4.8±4.3	−3.2	−1.6
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−2.9±1.9	−1.8	−1.1
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−2.6±1.9	−1.9	−0.7
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−1.6±5.6	−3.1	+1.5
BH to their backhand · return +1	−1.2±2.2	−1.1	−0.1

Pablo Carreno Busta

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	+3.7±2.9	+2.6	+1.0
FH to their backhand · return	+3.6±2.8	±0.0	+3.6
BH to the middle · return +1	+2.8±1.8	+2.2	+0.7
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+2.7±1.8	+1.3	+1.3
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.5±1.0	+1.0	+1.5
FH to the middle · return	+2.5±1.5	+0.4	+2.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH slice to the middle · rally	−0.3±2.8	−0.1	−0.2
FH to the middle · return +1	−0.3±2.3	+0.6	−0.9
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−0.1±3.7	−0.1	±0.0
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−0.1±2.0	+0.1	−0.2
FH to their forehand · return +1	±0.0±2.9	−0.1	+0.1

Against Pablo Carreno Busta-like opponents

David Ferrer v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.3%	36.7%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Casper Ruud, Brandon Nakashima, Valentin Vacherot, Tommy Paul, Alejandro Tabilo, Karen Khachanov, Jaume Munar, Miomir Kecmanovic, Luca Nardi, Bernabe Zapata Miralles. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.