Game plan

Elena Rybakina v Caroline Dolehide

Every number combines what Elena Rybakina does well with what Caroline Dolehide allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Elena Rybakina wins, best of 3 89%90%: 68%–98% · best of 5: 94%

Serve points won 65.4% / 55.9% Elena / Caroline · tour 58.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 87%serve 64.8% / 56.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Elena Rybakina's record against Caroline Dolehide's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +2.4 on serve, +1.2 on return vs expectation (1047 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Elena	Caroline
Direction choice	+0.15 ±0.03 better than 80%	−0.27 ±0.08 better than 10%
Shot selection	+0.33 ±0.06 better than 81%	−0.67 ±0.37 better than 7%
Execution	+0.40 ±0.26 better than 75%	−0.35 ±0.61 better than 40%
Points left on the table	2.42 ±0.05 lower than 73%	3.14 ±0.17 lower than 6%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Elena Rybakina serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Elena wins	v Caroline	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	71%	67%	71.5%±6.1	55% ▲
Body	11%	63%	61%	66.4%±8.4	0% ▼
T	50%	78%	63%	74.9%±6.0	45% ▼

Optimal v Caroline Dolehide: +0.6±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Elena wins	v Caroline	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	78%	65%	77.9%±5.4	49% ▼
Body	9%	61%	60%	65.2%±9.1	0% ▼
T	36%	70%	70%	75.1%±6.5	51% ▲

Optimal v Caroline Dolehide: +0.6±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Caroline Dolehide serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Caroline wins	v Elena	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	68%	65%	67.3%±5.9	67% ▲
Body	22%	66%	57%	65.1%±7.9	7% ▼
T	26%	65%	67%	63.8%±8.0	26%

Optimal v Elena Rybakina: +0.2±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Caroline wins	v Elena	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	65%	68%	67.1%±5.9	54% ▲
Body	25%	63%	58%	64.3%±8.0	10% ▼
T	26%	66%	65%	66.6%±8.4	36% ▲

Optimal v Elena Rybakina: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Elena Rybakina returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Caroline	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.2	−0.8	−5.1	−1.7±2.3
FH down the line	31%	+1.5	−0.2	−3.0	−1.6±3.7
FH crosscourt	15%	+5.3	+0.1	−4.9	+0.6±3.7
FH slice through the middle	5%	−6.7	−3.4	−1.1	−11.2±2.4
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−6.6	−0.6	−0.7	−7.9±2.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.6±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (2246 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Caroline	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.0	±0.0	−0.4	+5.6±2.1
BH crosscourt	22%	+7.7	+1.7	−0.9	+8.6±2.9
BH down the line	19%	+2.2	+0.2	−0.4	+2.0±3.9
BH slice through the middle	8%	−6.2	−1.3	−0.9	−8.4±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	4%	−4.2	−1.2	±0.0	−5.3±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.1±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1613 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Caroline	Value
FH through the middle	41%	−3.2	−1.1	−2.1	−6.4±2.8
FH crosscourt	30%	+0.5	+2.4	+3.1	+6.1±4.1
FH down the line	28%	−0.6	−0.8	−1.0	−2.4±4.7
FH slice through the middle	2%	−15.2	−0.7	±0.0	−15.9±1.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +7.8±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (580 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Caroline	Value
BH crosscourt	43%	+1.5	+0.4	−2.2	−0.3±3.1
BH through the middle	40%	−2.6	±0.0	−3.0	−5.6±2.4
BH down the line	16%	−0.5	+0.8	−0.4	±0.0±4.2

Lean BH down the line: +2.3±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (849 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Caroline Dolehide returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elena	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.2	−2.8	−1.3	+0.1±2.5
FH crosscourt	20%	+5.3	−1.2	−1.6	+2.5±3.7
FH slice through the middle	16%	−6.7	+0.7	−0.4	−6.4±2.1
FH down the line	15%	+1.5	−4.2	−1.6	−4.3±4.0
FH slice crosscourt	4%	−6.6	+0.1	+1.6	−4.9±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.1±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (187 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elena	Value
BH through the middle	40%	+6.0	+1.3	−0.8	+6.5±2.3
BH slice through the middle	18%	−6.2	±0.0	−1.5	−7.7±2.3
BH crosscourt	14%	+7.7	+0.2	−2.4	+5.6±2.9
BH slice crosscourt	12%	−4.2	+0.3	−6.1	−10.0±2.8
BH down the line	10%	+2.2	−1.6	−2.3	−1.8±3.7

Lean BH through the middle: +6.9±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (177 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elena	Value
FH through the middle	43%	−3.2	+0.6	−0.5	−3.1±2.4
FH down the line	34%	−0.6	−1.3	−0.2	−2.0±4.4
FH crosscourt	23%	+0.5	±0.0	+0.7	+1.3±3.3

Lean FH down the line: −0.3±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (47 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elena	Value
BH through the middle	51%	−2.6	+0.5	−0.5	−2.5±2.1
BH crosscourt	25%	+1.5	−1.1	−0.3	+0.1±2.7
FH through the middle	10%	−2.7	+0.1	−0.5	−3.1±1.8
BH down the line	8%	−0.5	−1.4	−1.8	−3.7±3.3
FH inside-out	6%	+1.4	−1.5	−0.2	−0.3±3.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.0±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (88 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Elena Rybakina

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.9±4.1	+4.9	−0.9
BH to their backhand · return +1	+0.9±3.9	−0.2	+1.1
FH to their forehand · return	±0.0±4.7	+1.9	−1.9
BH to their backhand · return	−0.1±3.6	+0.8	−0.8
BH to the middle · return	−0.5±2.5	+0.1	−0.6
FH to the middle · return +1	−0.8±3.1	−1.3	+0.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	−6.0±2.8	−1.3	−4.7
BH to their backhand · rally	−5.2±3.4	+0.2	−5.4
BH to the middle · rally	−5.2±2.7	−4.6	−0.6
FH to the middle · rally	−5.1±2.8	−3.4	−1.7
BH to the middle · serve +1	−4.4±2.9	−3.4	−1.0

Caroline Dolehide

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to the middle · rally	+3.0±2.7	+1.2	+1.8
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.4±4.3	+2.6	−0.3
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+1.6±3.4	+2.1	−0.5
FH to the middle · serve +1	+1.4±2.9	−1.7	+3.1
FH to their forehand · return +1	+1.2±4.4	+1.3	−0.1
FH to their forehand · rally	+1.0±3.5	−1.1	+2.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	−9.3±4.3	−3.1	−6.2
FH to their backhand · return	−8.5±4.9	−5.5	−3.0
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−5.5±4.4	−2.4	−3.0
FH to the middle · return	−3.9±2.9	−1.4	−2.6
FH to their forehand · return	−3.1±4.9	+0.5	−3.6

Against Caroline Dolehide-like opponents

Elena Rybakina v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	63.5%	44.2%
Players most similar to Caroline Dolehide	9	65.5%	45.7%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Xin Yu Wang, Tamara Zidansek, Bianca Andreescu, Jasmine Paolini, Emma Raducanu, Peyton Stearns, Nao Hibino, Lucia Bronzetti, Daria Saville, Rebecca Peterson. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.