Game plan

Elina Avanesyan v Ajla Tomljanovic

Every number combines what Elina Avanesyan does well with what Ajla Tomljanovic allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Elina Avanesyan wins, best of 3 46%90%: 13%–82% · best of 5: 45%

Serve points won 54.1% / 54.9% Elina / Ajla · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 50%serve 54.2% / 54.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Elina Avanesyan's record against Ajla Tomljanovic's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −2.2 on serve, −9.8 on return vs expectation (231 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Elina	Ajla
Direction choice	−0.13 ±0.11 better than 30%	−0.42 ±0.09 better than 1%
Shot selection	−0.05 ±0.13 better than 40%	−0.34 ±0.13 better than 19%
Execution	+0.98 ±0.49 better than 91%	+0.24 ±0.70 better than 70%
Points left on the table	2.53 ±0.14 lower than 62%	3.06 ±0.13 lower than 9%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Elina Avanesyan +0.55, Ajla Tomljanovic +1.09. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Elina Avanesyan serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Elina wins	v Ajla	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	56%	68%	58.2%±7.6	43% ▼
Body	28%	54%	59%	55.8%±9.4	17% ▼
T	25%	56%	77%	65.9%±9.1	40% ▲

Optimal v Ajla Tomljanovic: +0.3±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Elina wins	v Ajla	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	62%	77%	73.7%±7.2	69% ▲
Body	26%	57%	64%	64.6%±9.3	11% ▼
T	20%	59%	64%	58.3%±9.4	20%

Optimal v Ajla Tomljanovic: +0.5±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ajla Tomljanovic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Ajla wins	v Elina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	64%	65%	62.4%±7.7	40%
Body	29%	55%	62%	59.1%±9.5	14% ▼
T	30%	72%	69%	73.0%±7.8	46% ▲

Optimal v Elina Avanesyan: +0.5±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +8.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Ajla wins	v Elina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	60%	62%	56.4%±8.5	39%
Body	23%	47%	61%	52.8%±10.8	8% ▼
T	37%	66%	67%	68.5%±8.2	53% ▲

Optimal v Elina Avanesyan: +1.1±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +8.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Elina Avanesyan returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ajla	Value
FH through the middle	56%	+4.2	+4.7	+1.3	+10.1±2.6
FH down the line	20%	+1.5	+0.7	−0.1	+2.1±4.7
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.3	+0.4	+1.6	+7.3±4.3
FH slice through the middle	6%	−6.7	−0.6	+0.3	−7.0±2.3
FH slice crosscourt	3%	−6.6	−2.3	+0.8	−8.1±2.1

Lean FH through the middle: +3.8±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (309 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ajla	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.0	+3.3	−1.2	+8.2±2.6
BH crosscourt	36%	+7.7	+3.7	−3.0	+8.4±3.5
BH down the line	16%	+2.2	+0.7	+2.8	+5.6±4.6
BH slice down the line	2%	−12.5	+0.5	−2.3	−14.3±2.2
BH slice through the middle	2%	−6.2	+1.0	−0.8	−6.0±1.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.3±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (260 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ajla	Value
FH through the middle	51%	−3.2	+2.6	−0.6	−1.2±2.9
FH down the line	34%	−0.6	+4.2	+2.2	+5.9±5.0
FH crosscourt	15%	+0.5	+0.7	−1.2	±0.0±3.7

Lean FH down the line: +4.5±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (65 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ajla	Value
BH through the middle	40%	−2.6	+1.0	+0.1	−1.5±2.8
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.5	+0.6	−1.8	+0.2±3.6
BH down the line	22%	−0.5	+2.3	+1.7	+3.5±5.1

Lean BH down the line: +3.3±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (113 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Ajla Tomljanovic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elina	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.2	−3.0	+1.9	+3.0±2.7
FH slice through the middle	20%	−6.7	+2.0	+0.1	−4.6±2.4
FH down the line	16%	+1.5	+2.6	+3.9	+8.0±4.7
FH crosscourt	11%	+5.3	−1.5	+1.9	+5.7±4.2
FH slice down the line	6%	−10.5	+0.4	±0.0	−10.1±2.2

Lean FH down the line: +6.5±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (312 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elina	Value
BH through the middle	34%	+6.0	−2.0	+1.9	+5.9±2.6
BH crosscourt	24%	+7.7	−0.9	+2.1	+9.0±3.5
BH down the line	16%	+2.2	−0.9	+4.1	+5.4±4.5
BH slice through the middle	13%	−6.2	−0.6	+1.5	−5.3±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	9%	−4.2	−1.7	±0.0	−5.9±1.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.8±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (187 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elina	Value
FH through the middle	51%	−3.2	−0.8	+2.8	−1.2±3.1
FH crosscourt	26%	+0.5	−1.0	+3.0	+2.5±4.3
FH down the line	23%	−0.6	±0.0	+6.9	+6.4±5.0

Lean FH down the line: +4.8±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (86 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elina	Value
BH through the middle	54%	−2.6	−1.8	+1.4	−3.0±2.8
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.5	+0.9	+1.3	+3.7±3.6
BH down the line	11%	−0.5	−3.2	−2.6	−6.3±4.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.8±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (105 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Elina Avanesyan

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+5.9±5.9	+3.3	+2.7
FH to the middle · return	+5.6±3.5	+5.3	+0.3
BH to their forehand · return +1	+5.2±5.8	+2.2	+3.1
BH to the middle · rally	+3.9±2.8	+2.0	+1.9
FH to their backhand · return	+3.8±5.6	+2.0	+1.8
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.9±5.4	+0.8	+2.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−3.3±3.8	−0.6	−2.7
FH to their backhand · return +1	−2.6±5.6	+0.2	−2.8
BH to their backhand · return +1	−2.5±4.7	−0.7	−1.8
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−2.5±6.2	+0.8	−3.2
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.4±4.2	+2.7	−5.2

Ajla Tomljanovic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+7.7±5.3	+3.5	+4.1
FH to their backhand · return	+6.3±5.7	−0.1	+6.4
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+6.2±5.9	−0.2	+6.4
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+4.7±4.7	+2.3	+2.4
BH to their forehand · return	+3.0±5.9	+0.3	+2.8
FH to their forehand · return +1	+2.8±5.3	−0.2	+3.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	−5.0±6.0	−7.5	+2.5
BH to the middle · return	−4.6±3.3	−8.5	+3.9
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.5±5.3	−6.2	+2.7
BH to their backhand · return	−2.4±4.6	−5.0	+2.5
FH to the middle · return	−2.2±3.7	−3.1	+0.9

Against Ajla Tomljanovic-like opponents

Elina Avanesyan v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	51.6%	42.3%
Players most similar to Ajla Tomljanovic	2	49.2%	33.3%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Iva Jovic, Elina Svitolina, Jessica Pegula, Kimberly Birrell, Emma Navarro, Jaqueline Cristian, Emma Raducanu, Nao Hibino, Lin Zhu, Lauren Davis. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.