Game plan

Elsa Jacquemot v Moyuka Uchijima

Every number combines what Elsa Jacquemot does well with what Moyuka Uchijima allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Elsa Jacquemot wins, best of 3 58%90%: 15%–92% · best of 5: 60%

Serve points won 55.5% / 54.0% Elsa / Moyuka · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 59%serve 55.8% / 54.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Elsa Jacquemot's record against Moyuka Uchijima's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (head-to-head: −3.7 on serve, +1.0 on return vs expectation (267 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Elsa	Moyuka
Direction choice	+0.03 ±0.09 better than 59%	−0.13 ±0.14 better than 29%
Shot selection	−0.54 ±0.62 better than 10%	+0.45 ±0.35 better than 93%
Execution	+1.04 ±0.85 better than 93%	−0.17 ±0.93 better than 53%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Elsa Jacquemot serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Elsa wins	v Moyuka	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	60%	67%	61.7%±10.2	51% ▼
Body	14%	57%	55%	54.8%±14.5	0% ▼
T	34%	72%	67%	71.4%±11.8	49% ▲

Optimal v Moyuka Uchijima: +0.9±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +7.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Elsa wins	v Moyuka	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	74%	68%	75.3%±9.5	47%
Body	20%	58%	58%	59.7%±14.2	5% ▼
T	33%	63%	65%	63.5%±11.7	48% ▲

Optimal v Moyuka Uchijima: +1.0±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +6.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Moyuka Uchijima serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Moyuka wins	v Elsa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	59%	65%	71%	70.3%±10.1	74% ▲
Body	13%	60%	53%	56.5%±13.6	0% ▼
T	28%	66%	69%	67.1%±12.8	26% ▼

Optimal v Elsa Jacquemot: +0.3±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Moyuka wins	v Elsa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	65%	66%	65.3%±11.7	55% ▲
Body	21%	52%	49%	45.1%±13.8	6% ▼
T	39%	63%	64%	63.1%±11.7	39%

Optimal v Elsa Jacquemot: +1.4±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +5.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Elsa Jacquemot returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Moyuka	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.2	+0.8	+0.7	+5.7±3.1
FH down the line	34%	+1.5	+3.7	+2.6	+7.9±4.7
FH slice through the middle	13%	−6.7	−0.5	+0.5	−6.7±2.1
FH crosscourt	11%	+5.3	+1.0	±0.0	+6.4±3.7

Lean FH down the line: +3.0±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (90 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Moyuka	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.0	+2.5	−0.2	+8.3±2.9
BH crosscourt	25%	+7.7	+2.7	−0.7	+9.7±3.5
BH slice through the middle	17%	−6.2	+0.4	±0.0	−5.8±1.4
BH down the line	14%	+2.2	+0.7	+0.9	+3.7±3.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.1±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (72 returns charted)

Moyuka Uchijima returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elsa	Value
FH through the middle	35%	+4.2	+0.9	+2.2	+7.2±3.2
FH slice through the middle	25%	−6.7	+0.2	−0.4	−6.9±2.5
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.3	−1.4	+0.2	+4.1±4.3
FH down the line	9%	+1.5	+1.0	−4.0	−1.5±3.8
FH slice crosscourt	8%	−6.6	+0.1	±0.0	−6.5±2.1

Lean FH through the middle: +6.1±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (120 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elsa	Value
BH through the middle	43%	+6.0	+1.8	−2.0	+5.8±3.0
BH crosscourt	28%	+7.7	+1.1	−0.5	+8.3±3.4
BH down the line	23%	+2.2	−1.8	−2.4	−2.0±4.1
BH slice through the middle	6%	−6.2	−0.4	−1.6	−8.3±1.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.4±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (90 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elsa	Value
FH through the middle	40%	−3.2	−1.3	+2.4	−2.1±2.9
FH crosscourt	38%	+0.5	+2.6	+1.1	+4.2±4.1
FH down the line	23%	−0.6	+0.3	+1.0	+0.8±4.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.3±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (40 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Elsa Jacquemot

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return	+5.9±4.5	+3.2	+2.6
BH to their backhand · rally	+5.8±3.1	+3.0	+2.8
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+4.9±4.3	+0.6	+4.3
FH to the middle · rally	+2.0±2.6	−0.1	+2.1
BH to the middle · rally	+1.6±2.5	+1.6	±0.0
BH to their backhand · return	+1.3±3.7	+1.9	−0.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.3±4.3	−0.2	−3.1
FH to their backhand · rally	−0.3±3.8	+1.0	−1.3
FH to the middle · return	+0.6±3.4	+0.4	+0.2
BH to the middle · return	+1.0±2.8	+2.2	−1.2
BH to their backhand · return +1	+1.1±3.7	+0.4	+0.7

Moyuka Uchijima

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.7±4.8	+0.4	+3.3
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.5±3.9	+0.9	+2.6
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.7±4.2	−0.4	+3.1
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.4±4.3	±0.0	+2.4
BH to the middle · rally	+2.0±2.2	+1.6	+0.4
BH to their backhand · rally	+1.6±3.2	+0.8	+0.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · rally	−1.9±2.7	−0.2	−1.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+1.1±4.3	+1.8	−0.8
FH to the middle · return	+1.5±2.9	−0.4	+1.8
BH to their backhand · rally	+1.6±3.2	+0.8	+0.8
BH to the middle · rally	+2.0±2.2	+1.6	+0.4

Against Moyuka Uchijima-like opponents

Elsa Jacquemot v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	55.6%	42.7%
Moyuka Uchijima (charted head-to-head)	1	53.0%	44.2%

Charted head-to-head

Elsa Jacquemot v Moyuka Uchijima US Open Q1 · Hard · 24 Aug 2022