Game plan

Eugenie Bouchard v Ana Ivanovic

Every number combines what Eugenie Bouchard does well with what Ana Ivanovic allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Eugenie Bouchard wins, best of 3 26%90%: 8%–54% · best of 5: 21%

Serve points won 53.8% / 58.8% Eugenie / Ana · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 22%serve 53.5% / 59.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Eugenie Bouchard's record against Ana Ivanovic's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +3.0 on serve, +2.6 on return vs expectation (431 points); head-to-head: −0.8 on serve, +2.1 on return vs expectation (229 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Eugenie	Ana
Direction choice	+0.11 ±0.08 better than 73%	+0.22 ±0.06 better than 88%
Shot selection	+0.34 ±0.09 better than 83%	+0.19 ±0.13 better than 64%
Execution	−0.61 ±0.42 better than 29%	−0.07 ±0.34 better than 58%
Points left on the table	2.30 ±0.11 lower than 86%	2.35 ±0.09 lower than 82%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Eugenie Bouchard serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Eugenie wins	v Ana	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	64%	70%	68.4%±5.1	55% ▲
Body	22%	62%	52%	56.5%±6.4	11% ▼
T	39%	66%	63%	60.8%±5.2	34% ▼

Optimal v Ana Ivanovic: +0.9±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +5.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Eugenie wins	v Ana	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	64%	65%	64.2%±5.0	46% ▲
Body	26%	56%	54%	53.6%±6.9	11% ▼
T	36%	65%	66%	65.7%±5.5	43% ▲

Optimal v Ana Ivanovic: +0.9±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ana Ivanovic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Ana wins	v Eugenie	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	72%	67%	72.9%±4.2	63% ▲
Body	18%	59%	58%	59.9%±6.6	3% ▼
T	34%	74%	64%	70.5%±5.3	34%

Optimal v Eugenie Bouchard: +0.5±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Ana wins	v Eugenie	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	67%	65%	66.9%±5.2	41% ▼
Body	14%	59%	55%	57.2%±7.4	0% ▼
T	44%	71%	67%	72.5%±4.5	59% ▲

Optimal v Eugenie Bouchard: +0.7±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Eugenie Bouchard returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ana	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.2	−0.6	−0.6	+3.0±2.0
FH crosscourt	32%	+5.3	+2.6	−1.9	+6.0±3.5
FH down the line	14%	+1.5	−3.3	−0.4	−2.2±4.0
FH slice through the middle	4%	−6.7	−1.3	−1.6	−9.7±2.5
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−6.6	−0.2	+0.3	−6.5±2.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.7±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (923 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ana	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.0	−0.1	−1.4	+4.5±1.9
BH crosscourt	26%	+7.7	−0.1	−2.3	+5.3±3.0
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	+4.1	+0.8	+7.1±4.5
BH slice through the middle	8%	−6.2	−0.1	−0.4	−6.8±2.6
BH slice crosscourt	4%	−4.2	−3.6	−0.2	−7.9±2.9

Lean BH down the line: +3.8±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (655 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ana	Value
FH crosscourt	47%	+0.5	+1.6	−0.2	+2.0±4.0
FH through the middle	43%	−3.2	+2.3	−0.3	−1.2±2.6
FH down the line	9%	−0.6	−1.1	−4.2	−5.9±4.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.1±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (236 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ana	Value
BH through the middle	45%	−2.6	−1.2	−0.4	−4.2±2.2
BH crosscourt	41%	+1.5	−0.7	−1.8	−1.0±2.9
BH down the line	15%	−0.5	+1.7	−1.9	−0.7±5.2

Lean BH down the line: +1.7±4.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (369 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Ana Ivanovic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Eugenie	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.2	−3.6	−1.9	−1.4±2.2
FH crosscourt	39%	+5.3	−1.3	+1.0	+5.1±3.4
FH down the line	17%	+1.5	+0.8	−1.4	+0.9±4.2
FH slice through the middle	2%	−6.7	−0.1	−3.7	−10.6±2.3
BH through the middle	1%	+5.2	+0.6	−1.0	+4.8±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.7±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (538 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Eugenie	Value
BH through the middle	45%	+6.0	+1.0	−1.0	+6.1±1.8
BH crosscourt	29%	+7.7	+2.1	−0.9	+8.9±2.8
BH slice through the middle	10%	−6.2	−2.1	+0.3	−7.9±2.5
BH down the line	9%	+2.2	+2.2	+0.8	+5.1±4.3
BH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.2	+0.4	−0.5	−4.3±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.3±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (958 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Eugenie	Value
FH crosscourt	40%	+0.5	+1.2	−1.5	+0.2±4.2
FH through the middle	38%	−3.2	−3.3	−1.5	−8.0±2.7
FH down the line	22%	−0.6	−2.0	+1.0	−1.6±5.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.6±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (183 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Eugenie	Value
BH through the middle	37%	−2.6	−0.3	−2.1	−5.0±2.1
BH crosscourt	37%	+1.5	+1.7	−2.5	+0.7±2.8
BH down the line	12%	−0.5	+1.1	+0.1	+0.6±4.9
FH inside-in	7%	+0.7	−3.1	−1.5	−3.9±4.4
FH through the middle	4%	−2.7	−0.2	−1.5	−4.5±2.2
FH inside-out	3%	+1.4	+1.6	+1.0	+3.9±3.8

Lean FH inside-out: +5.8±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (524 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.