Game plan
Fabian Marozsan v Carlos Alcaraz
Every number combines what Fabian Marozsan does well with what Carlos Alcaraz allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Fabian Marozsan's record against Carlos Alcaraz's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (head-to-head: +0.5 on serve, +0.1 on return vs expectation (448 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Fabian | Carlos |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.17 ±0.08 better than 91% | +0.08 ±0.03 better than 77% |
| Shot selection | +0.04 ±0.26 better than 58% | +0.20 ±0.07 better than 73% |
| Execution | +0.87 ±0.78 better than 93% | +0.54 ±0.21 better than 85% |
| Points left on the table | 2.29 ±0.13 lower than 85% | 2.43 ±0.05 lower than 70% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Structural compatibility
Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Fabian Marozsan −0.53, Carlos Alcaraz +2.35. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Fabian Marozsan serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Fabian wins | v Carlos | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 47% | 69% | 66% | 62.1%±5.0 | 46% |
| Body | 10% | 69% | 61% | 67.5%±8.2 | 23% ▲ |
| T | 44% | 69% | 68% | 60.6%±5.4 | 31% ▼ |
Optimal v Carlos Alcaraz: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +5.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Fabian wins | v Carlos | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 50% | 71% | 67% | 65.1%±5.0 | 63% ▲ |
| Body | 11% | 69% | 58% | 64.2%±8.7 | 12% |
| T | 38% | 64% | 65% | 56.2%±5.7 | 25% ▼ |
Optimal v Carlos Alcaraz: +0.3±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Carlos Alcaraz serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Carlos wins | v Fabian | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 73% | 72% | 72.1%±4.5 | 46% |
| Body | 18% | 67% | 61% | 65.2%±9.0 | 4% ▼ |
| T | 37% | 77% | 79% | 80.3%±4.0 | 50% ▲ |
Optimal v Fabian Marozsan: +0.9±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +6.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Carlos wins | v Fabian | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 49% | 72% | 72% | 71.2%±4.9 | 50% |
| Body | 16% | 66% | 64% | 67.0%±10.2 | 3% ▼ |
| T | 34% | 72% | 71% | 71.7%±4.9 | 47% ▲ |
Optimal v Fabian Marozsan: +0.7±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Fabian Marozsan returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Carlos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 39% | +4.3 | +1.4 | +0.5 | +6.1±2.0 |
| FH crosscourt | 19% | +5.5 | +4.6 | +0.8 | +10.9±3.4 |
| FH slice through the middle | 16% | −4.2 | +0.1 | −1.5 | −5.7±2.0 |
| FH down the line | 14% | +1.7 | +4.8 | +1.0 | +7.5±3.5 |
| FH slice down the line | 8% | −4.3 | +1.0 | +0.9 | −2.3±3.0 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +6.6±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (360 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Carlos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 40% | +6.4 | +2.1 | +0.4 | +8.9±1.9 |
| BH crosscourt | 30% | +8.8 | +2.5 | +0.7 | +11.9±2.6 |
| BH slice through the middle | 11% | −4.2 | +0.2 | −2.8 | −6.8±2.1 |
| BH down the line | 11% | +4.2 | −1.2 | +0.1 | +3.1±3.7 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 6% | +0.5 | −0.9 | −0.4 | −0.7±2.5 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +5.6±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (317 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Carlos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 44% | −3.5 | +0.6 | +0.1 | −2.8±2.3 |
| FH down the line | 26% | −1.8 | −0.4 | −2.0 | −4.2±3.8 |
| FH crosscourt | 24% | −0.2 | +1.6 | −1.0 | +0.3±3.6 |
| FH slice through the middle | 6% | −12.7 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −13.2±2.0 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +3.3±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (104 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Carlos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 47% | −2.9 | +2.4 | −1.2 | −1.6±1.8 |
| BH crosscourt | 40% | +1.0 | +1.7 | −0.2 | +2.5±2.4 |
| BH down the line | 13% | −0.2 | +1.8 | −1.6 | ±0.0±4.0 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +2.3±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (229 returns charted)
Carlos Alcaraz returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Fabian | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 49% | +4.3 | +1.2 | +3.4 | +8.9±1.9 |
| FH crosscourt | 24% | +5.5 | +1.3 | +7.1 | +13.9±3.3 |
| FH down the line | 14% | +1.7 | +1.2 | +2.9 | +5.8±3.6 |
| FH slice through the middle | 8% | −4.2 | +0.2 | −0.6 | −4.7±2.0 |
| FH slice down the line | 2% | −4.3 | +0.8 | +0.9 | −2.5±3.0 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +5.9±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (4205 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Fabian | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 40% | +6.4 | +1.0 | +3.5 | +11.0±1.8 |
| BH crosscourt | 34% | +8.8 | +1.5 | +4.9 | +15.2±2.4 |
| BH slice through the middle | 10% | −4.2 | −2.3 | +0.3 | −6.2±2.1 |
| BH down the line | 7% | +4.2 | −0.5 | +3.4 | +7.1±3.9 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 6% | +0.5 | −1.3 | +1.7 | +1.0±2.6 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +6.0±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (4723 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Fabian | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 42% | −3.5 | −1.0 | +1.0 | −3.4±2.3 |
| FH crosscourt | 36% | −0.2 | −0.2 | +0.9 | +0.4±3.7 |
| FH down the line | 17% | −1.8 | −1.0 | −0.7 | −3.5±4.3 |
| FH slice through the middle | 2% | −12.7 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −13.4±1.6 |
| FH slice down the line | 1% | −9.4 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | −11.0±1.7 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +2.7±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1132 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Fabian | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 45% | +1.0 | +0.1 | +1.2 | +2.3±2.2 |
| BH through the middle | 27% | −2.9 | −2.1 | +1.0 | −3.9±1.8 |
| BH down the line | 9% | −0.2 | +1.4 | +3.7 | +4.9±4.4 |
| FH through the middle | 7% | −2.9 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | −1.9±2.2 |
| FH inside-in | 5% | +0.6 | −1.5 | +0.9 | ±0.0±4.2 |
Lean BH down the line: +4.8±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (2787 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.
Fabian Marozsan
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · return | +5.4±3.3 | +4.7 | +0.7 |
| FH to the middle · return | +3.0±1.7 | +1.9 | +1.1 |
| BH to their backhand · return | +2.4±2.0 | +1.9 | +0.5 |
| BH to the middle · return | +2.1±1.5 | +2.0 | +0.1 |
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | +1.4±3.1 | +2.7 | −1.3 |
| FH to their backhand · return +1 | +0.8±3.1 | +1.0 | −0.2 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | −5.2±1.9 | −3.9 | −1.3 |
| FH slice to the middle · rally | −4.2±2.4 | −1.0 | −3.1 |
| BH to the middle · return +1 | −2.5±1.9 | −2.6 | +0.1 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −2.5±1.8 | −0.3 | −2.2 |
| BH to the middle · rally | −2.0±1.5 | −1.6 | −0.4 |
Carlos Alcaraz
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · return | +6.2±3.1 | +0.4 | +5.9 |
| BH to their forehand · return | +5.8±3.5 | +1.1 | +4.8 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | +4.8±2.6 | +2.2 | +2.7 |
| BH to their backhand · return | +4.7±1.9 | +1.0 | +3.8 |
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | +4.2±3.0 | +1.3 | +2.9 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | +4.1±2.3 | +1.7 | +2.4 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to the middle · rally | −4.8±1.9 | −3.8 | −1.0 |
| BH to the middle · serve +1 | −2.2±2.0 | −0.1 | −2.1 |
| FH slice to the middle · rally | −2.0±2.4 | −1.6 | −0.4 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | −1.0±1.9 | +0.2 | −1.2 |
| BH slice to their backhand · return +1 | −0.4±2.2 | +0.1 | −0.5 |
Against Carlos Alcaraz-like opponents
| Fabian Marozsan v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 61.6% | 34.5% |
| Carlos Alcaraz (charted head-to-head) | 3 | 58.3% | 32.7% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Ben Shelton, Tallon Griekspoor, Alejandro Tabilo, Pablo Carreno Busta, Zizou Bergs, Lorenzo Sonego, Francisco Cerundolo, Luca Nardi. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.