Game plan

Francisco Cerundolo v Carlos Alcaraz

Every number combines what Francisco Cerundolo does well with what Carlos Alcaraz allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Francisco Cerundolo wins, best of 3 6%90%: 1%–20% · best of 5: 3%

Serve points won 54.4% / 66.4% Francisco / Carlos · tour 63.5%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 6%serve 54.6% / 66.6%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Francisco Cerundolo's record against Carlos Alcaraz's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −1.0 on serve, +4.2 on return vs expectation (202 points); head-to-head: −2.0 on serve, −0.1 on return vs expectation (277 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Francisco	Carlos
Direction choice	+0.11 ±0.06 better than 82%	+0.08 ±0.03 better than 77%
Shot selection	+0.26 ±0.12 better than 76%	+0.20 ±0.07 better than 73%
Execution	−0.40 ±0.49 better than 48%	+0.54 ±0.21 better than 85%
Points left on the table	2.23 ±0.08 lower than 89%	2.43 ±0.05 lower than 70%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Francisco Cerundolo −1.10, Carlos Alcaraz +1.11. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Francisco Cerundolo serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Francisco wins	v Carlos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	65%	66%	58.0%±3.9	44%
Body	16%	61%	61%	59.2%±6.1	29% ▲
T	40%	69%	68%	61.3%±4.4	27% ▼

Optimal v Carlos Alcaraz: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Francisco wins	v Carlos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	63%	67%	57.1%±3.8	39% ▼
Body	16%	66%	58%	61.7%±6.5	29% ▲
T	32%	67%	65%	59.9%±4.8	32%

Optimal v Carlos Alcaraz: +0.3±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +3.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Carlos Alcaraz serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Carlos wins	v Francisco	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	73%	72%	72.7%±3.3	59% ▲
Body	18%	67%	62%	66.2%±6.7	4% ▼
T	37%	77%	70%	72.0%±3.7	37%

Optimal v Francisco Cerundolo: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Carlos wins	v Francisco	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	72%	68%	67.0%±3.6	50%
Body	16%	66%	61%	64.3%±7.3	3% ▼
T	34%	72%	67%	67.7%±4.3	47% ▲

Optimal v Francisco Cerundolo: +0.4±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +0.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Francisco Cerundolo returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	+0.8	+0.5	+5.6±1.7
FH crosscourt	25%	+5.5	+0.1	+0.8	+6.4±3.0
FH down the line	15%	+1.7	−0.4	+1.0	+2.2±3.4
FH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−1.1	−1.5	−6.9±2.0
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	−1.2	+0.9	−4.5±3.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.1±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (715 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	−0.8	+0.4	+6.0±1.4
BH crosscourt	29%	+8.8	−1.2	+0.7	+8.3±2.1
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	+3.1	+0.1	+7.4±3.6
BH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	−2.6	−2.8	−9.6±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	5%	+0.5	−1.6	−0.4	−1.4±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.5±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (857 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.5	+1.8	+0.1	−1.6±2.3
FH crosscourt	35%	−0.2	+2.4	−1.0	+1.1±3.7
FH down the line	18%	−1.8	−0.7	−2.0	−4.5±3.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.3±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (152 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	−1.2	−0.2	−0.4±2.0
BH through the middle	37%	−2.9	−1.0	−1.2	−5.1±1.6
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	−3.7	−1.6	−5.5±4.1
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	+1.0	+0.1	−1.8±1.9
FH inside-out	6%	+1.0	−1.1	−2.0	−2.1±3.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.3±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (564 returns charted)

Carlos Alcaraz returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francisco	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	+1.2	+1.8	+7.2±1.6
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.5	+1.3	+3.0	+9.9±3.0
FH down the line	14%	+1.7	+1.2	+4.2	+7.1±3.1
FH slice through the middle	8%	−4.2	+0.2	+0.8	−3.2±2.0
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	+0.8	+1.1	−2.4±3.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.3±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (4205 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francisco	Value
BH through the middle	40%	+6.4	+1.0	+0.7	+8.2±1.4
BH crosscourt	34%	+8.8	+1.5	+1.5	+11.8±1.8
BH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−2.3	−0.3	−6.8±2.0
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	−0.5	+1.7	+5.5±3.9
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−1.3	−0.8	−1.6±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.3±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (4723 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francisco	Value
FH through the middle	42%	−3.5	−1.0	+1.3	−3.1±2.1
FH crosscourt	36%	−0.2	−0.2	+6.4	+5.9±3.6
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	−1.0	−1.0	−3.7±4.0
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−0.8	±0.0	−13.4±1.6
FH slice down the line	1%	−9.4	−1.6	±0.0	−11.0±1.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.1±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1132 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francisco	Value
BH crosscourt	45%	+1.0	+0.1	+0.2	+1.3±1.9
BH through the middle	27%	−2.9	−2.1	+0.2	−4.8±1.7
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	+1.4	−2.4	−1.2±4.4
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	±0.0	+1.3	−1.6±2.0
FH inside-in	5%	+0.6	−1.5	+6.4	+5.5±4.1

Lean FH inside-in: +6.4±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (2787 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.