Game plan

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard v Magnus Gustafsson

Every number combines what Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard does well with what Magnus Gustafsson allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard wins, best of 3 71%90%: 47%–88% · best of 5: 76%

Serve points won 73.3% / 68.5% Giovanni / Magnus · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 71%serve 73.3% / 68.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard's record against Magnus Gustafsson's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Giovanni	Magnus
Direction choice	−0.26 ±0.07 better than 9%	−0.64 ±0.17 better than 0%
Shot selection	−0.11 ±0.24 better than 38%	−0.30 ±0.52 better than 23%
Execution	+0.77 ±0.79 better than 90%	−1.97 ±0.69 better than 3%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Giovanni wins	v Magnus	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	79%	74%	80.1%±6.4	58% ▲
Body	8%	62%	55%	53.5%±14.8	0% ▼
T	47%	79%	82%	85.0%±6.4	42% ▼

Optimal v Magnus Gustafsson: +0.9±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Giovanni wins	v Magnus	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	82%	69%	79.1%±7.3	67% ▲
Body	5%	61%	69%	67.2%±15.4	0% ▼
T	41%	77%	79%	83.5%±6.6	33% ▼

Optimal v Magnus Gustafsson: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Magnus Gustafsson serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Magnus wins	v Giovanni	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	63%	83%	75.3%±7.1	45%
Body	21%	62%	69%	67.6%±12.6	8% ▼
T	34%	73%	81%	79.3%±7.4	47% ▲

Optimal v Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: +1.4±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Magnus wins	v Giovanni	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	72%	66%	79%	73.2%±6.7	72%
Body	13%	57%	67%	60.9%±15.5	0% ▼
T	15%	66%	78%	72.6%±10.1	28% ▲

Optimal v Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: +1.3±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +1.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Magnus	Value
FH through the middle	36%	+4.3	+1.8	±0.0	+6.0±2.9
FH slice through the middle	21%	−4.2	+1.4	±0.0	−2.8±1.6
FH down the line	20%	+1.7	−0.5	+1.1	+2.2±4.0
FH crosscourt	9%	+5.5	−2.0	+2.0	+5.5±4.4
FH slice down the line	8%	−4.3	+2.2	±0.0	−2.0±2.3

Lean FH through the middle: +3.8±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (466 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Magnus	Value
BH through the middle	29%	+6.4	+0.9	+0.3	+7.5±2.7
BH slice through the middle	25%	−4.2	+2.9	−1.0	−2.3±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	17%	+0.5	+1.4	−0.1	+1.8±3.0
BH crosscourt	11%	+8.8	+1.6	+0.1	+10.5±3.5
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	−3.5	−1.4	−0.7±4.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.7±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (551 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Magnus	Value
FH through the middle	45%	−3.5	−1.8	+0.5	−4.8±2.9
FH down the line	34%	−1.8	−5.4	−0.7	−7.8±4.4
FH crosscourt	12%	−0.2	−0.8	−0.1	−1.1±3.9
FH slice through the middle	5%	−12.7	−0.2	−0.4	−13.3±1.6
FH slice down the line	4%	−9.4	−0.8	±0.0	−10.3±1.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.9±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (139 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Magnus	Value
BH through the middle	34%	−2.9	−1.8	−0.9	−5.6±2.4
BH down the line	20%	−0.2	−0.1	±0.0	−0.3±3.5
BH crosscourt	15%	+1.0	−4.5	−2.6	−6.0±3.1
BH slice through the middle	8%	−11.3	−0.5	+1.3	−10.5±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	8%	−4.0	−1.4	±0.0	−5.4±1.8

Lean BH down the line: +4.3±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (384 returns charted)

Magnus Gustafsson returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Giovanni	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.3	−2.3	+0.7	+2.6±2.8
FH crosscourt	32%	+5.5	+0.4	+0.6	+6.5±4.3
FH down the line	20%	+1.7	−1.9	−2.2	−2.5±4.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.7±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (88 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Giovanni	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.4	−5.2	+0.5	+1.7±2.6
BH crosscourt	21%	+8.8	±0.0	−2.2	+6.6±3.2
BH down the line	17%	+4.2	−5.4	−0.6	−1.8±4.3
BH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	−0.5	+1.1	−3.6±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.2±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (84 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Giovanni	Value
FH through the middle	52%	−3.5	+0.5	±0.0	−3.0±2.6
FH crosscourt	33%	−0.2	−0.7	+3.1	+2.2±4.1
FH down the line	14%	−1.8	+2.0	−1.4	−1.1±3.8

Lean FH through the middle: −2.0±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (42 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Giovanni	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.9	−1.2	+1.6	−2.5±2.5
BH crosscourt	28%	+1.0	−0.2	−0.4	+0.4±3.2
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	−2.7	+0.3	−2.6±4.2
FH inside-in	9%	+0.6	−1.7	+3.1	+2.0±3.8
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	−1.2	±0.0	−4.2±1.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.8±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (86 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · return	+5.3±3.9	+1.4	+3.9
BH slice to the middle · return	+2.4±3.2	+1.7	+0.7
FH to the middle · return	+0.1±3.6	−1.3	+1.4
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.0±4.6	−2.2	+0.3
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.0±3.9	−2.4	+0.4
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.2±4.4	−2.3	+0.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	−3.5±3.5	−3.1	−0.4
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.2±4.4	−2.3	+0.1
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.0±3.9	−2.4	+0.4
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.0±4.6	−2.2	+0.3
FH to the middle · return	+0.1±3.6	−1.3	+1.4

Magnus Gustafsson

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+2.4±6.6	+0.3	+2.1
BH to their backhand · rally	±0.0±3.6	−1.0	+1.0
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−0.4±5.2	+1.5	−1.9
BH to the middle · rally	−1.3±3.2	−2.8	+1.5
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.9±4.3	−2.6	+0.7
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.3±4.4	−3.0	+0.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · rally	−6.7±3.3	−7.6	+0.8
FH to the middle · return	−4.0±3.6	−4.2	+0.3
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−2.9±4.5	−2.2	−0.7
BH to the middle · return	−2.4±3.3	−6.2	+3.8
FH to the middle · serve +1	−2.4±4.0	−3.0	+0.6

Against Magnus Gustafsson-like opponents

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	70.3%	26.0%