Game plan

Grigor Dimitrov v Marton Fucsovics

Every number combines what Grigor Dimitrov does well with what Marton Fucsovics allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Grigor Dimitrov wins, best of 3 84%90%: 60%–96% · best of 5: 90%

Serve points won 67.8% / 59.7% Grigor / Marton · tour 63.5%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 79%serve 67.1% / 60.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Grigor Dimitrov's record against Marton Fucsovics's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +2.0 on serve, +2.3 on return vs expectation (1642 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Grigor	Marton
Direction choice	−0.07 ±0.05 better than 38%	−0.08 ±0.08 better than 36%
Shot selection	−0.42 ±0.09 better than 15%	−0.45 ±0.12 better than 13%
Execution	−0.13 ±0.23 better than 61%	−0.38 ±0.31 better than 49%
Points left on the table	2.78 ±0.07 lower than 32%	2.57 ±0.09 lower than 53%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Grigor Dimitrov −0.88, Marton Fucsovics −1.51. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Grigor Dimitrov serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Grigor wins	v Marton	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	74%	74%	75.0%±3.2	59% ▲
Body	7%	67%	56%	60.3%±7.4	0% ▼
T	47%	79%	72%	76.2%±3.3	41% ▼

Optimal v Marton Fucsovics: +0.5±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Grigor wins	v Marton	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	76%	69%	72.5%±3.4	47% ▼
Body	10%	64%	56%	56.7%±8.3	0% ▼
T	40%	72%	73%	72.6%±3.7	53% ▲

Optimal v Marton Fucsovics: +0.7±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Marton Fucsovics serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Marton wins	v Grigor	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	69%	72%	68.4%±3.9	39%
Body	14%	68%	64%	68.8%±6.1	1% ▼
T	47%	69%	74%	67.5%±3.8	60% ▲

Optimal v Grigor Dimitrov: +0.1±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +0.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Marton wins	v Grigor	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	68%	74%	69.7%±3.6	67% ▲
Body	13%	63%	65%	64.6%±6.7	0% ▼
T	33%	71%	72%	71.1%±4.4	33%

Optimal v Grigor Dimitrov: +0.2±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Grigor Dimitrov returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marton	Value
FH through the middle	51%	+4.3	+0.4	+0.1	+4.8±1.7
FH down the line	25%	+1.7	−0.4	−3.3	−2.0±3.4
FH crosscourt	13%	+5.5	−0.9	+2.3	+6.9±3.5
FH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	+0.2	+1.1	−3.0±2.1
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	+1.0	+0.7	−2.6±3.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.5±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (2614 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marton	Value
BH slice through the middle	45%	−4.2	+0.4	−1.5	−5.3±1.6
BH slice crosscourt	19%	+0.5	+1.0	−1.6	±0.0±2.3
BH through the middle	14%	+6.4	−2.7	+0.3	+4.0±1.7
BH slice down the line	9%	−8.4	+1.8	−2.4	−9.0±3.0
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	−0.8	−2.8	+0.6±4.0
BH crosscourt	5%	+8.8	±0.0	+0.4	+9.2±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +11.2±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (3178 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marton	Value
FH through the middle	53%	−3.5	+0.5	−0.2	−3.2±2.1
FH down the line	25%	−1.8	+3.1	−3.6	−2.2±4.3
FH crosscourt	18%	−0.2	+1.9	+0.9	+2.6±4.2
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	+0.5	±0.0	−12.3±1.8
FH slice crosscourt	1%	−12.5	+0.3	±0.0	−12.2±1.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.8±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (631 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marton	Value
BH through the middle	24%	−2.9	−1.1	+1.2	−2.8±1.5
BH slice through the middle	21%	−11.3	−1.7	−0.2	−13.2±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	19%	−4.0	−1.6	−0.6	−6.1±2.1
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	−0.6	+1.6	+0.8±4.1
BH crosscourt	8%	+1.0	+0.4	−1.6	−0.2±2.4
FH inside-in	4%	+0.6	+0.5	+0.9	+1.9±4.3

Lean FH inside-in: +7.0±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (2339 returns charted)

Marton Fucsovics returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Grigor	Value
FH through the middle	50%	+4.3	+0.8	−0.5	+4.6±1.5
FH down the line	18%	+1.7	−1.8	−0.1	−0.2±3.2
FH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	−0.8	+0.3	−4.7±1.9
FH crosscourt	11%	+5.5	−2.1	+0.5	+3.9±3.4
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	−2.4	−0.6	−7.2±3.2

Lean FH through the middle: +3.1±1.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (913 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Grigor	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+2.0	+0.7	+9.1±1.6
BH crosscourt	22%	+8.8	+1.8	−0.2	+10.4±2.4
BH slice through the middle	19%	−4.2	−1.9	−0.2	−6.4±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	−1.2	+1.4	+0.7±2.6
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+1.9	−4.7	+1.4±3.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.2±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (925 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Grigor	Value
FH through the middle	60%	−3.5	+0.5	−0.9	−3.8±2.2
FH down the line	21%	−1.8	+2.2	+0.9	+1.3±4.0
FH crosscourt	18%	−0.2	−0.7	−2.4	−3.3±3.8

Lean FH down the line: +3.9±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (197 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Grigor	Value
BH through the middle	43%	−2.9	+0.4	−0.3	−2.7±1.5
BH crosscourt	35%	+1.0	+0.7	+0.2	+2.0±2.0
BH down the line	11%	−0.2	−0.4	+2.0	+1.4±4.2
FH through the middle	4%	−2.9	+0.9	−0.9	−2.8±1.9
FH inside-in	3%	+0.6	−0.4	−2.4	−2.3±3.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.7±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (602 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Grigor Dimitrov

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+2.2±3.1	+0.1	+2.1
BH volley to their backhand · rally	+1.6±5.2	−2.2	+3.8
FH to their forehand · return +1	+1.6±2.5	+1.5	+0.1
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+1.4±1.9	+1.9	−0.5
FH slice to the middle · return	+1.4±2.1	+0.3	+1.1
FH to the middle · rally	+1.2±1.0	+0.4	+0.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−4.9±2.3	−1.8	−3.2
FH slice to the middle · rally	−4.1±2.5	−3.5	−0.6
BH to the middle · serve +1	−4.0±1.7	−2.8	−1.2
FH to their backhand · return	−3.8±2.6	+0.2	−4.0
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−3.7±5.1	−0.8	−2.9

Marton Fucsovics

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+1.8±1.1	+1.8	±0.0
FH to the middle · return	+1.6±1.2	+1.5	+0.2
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+1.1±5.3	+4.8	−3.6
BH to their backhand · return	+1.0±1.6	+1.5	−0.4
FH to their forehand · return	+0.8±2.9	+0.6	+0.2
BH to the middle · return +1	+0.8±1.6	+1.3	−0.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	−7.7±3.8	−3.3	−4.4
BH slice to their backhand · serve +1	−7.4±2.5	−1.6	−5.8
BH to their forehand · rally	−6.8±2.4	−4.4	−2.4
BH volley to their backhand · rally	−6.5±5.3	−2.9	−3.6
FH slice to their forehand · rally	−5.2±3.9	−3.4	−1.8

Against Marton Fucsovics-like opponents

Grigor Dimitrov v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	65.2%	35.7%
Players most similar to Marton Fucsovics	11	67.2%	39.8%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Lorenzo Musetti, Gael Monfils, Marcos Giron, Miomir Kecmanovic, Dominic Thiem, Radu Albot, Robin Haase, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Paolo Lorenzi, Guillermo Garcia Lopez. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.