Game plan

Jaume Munar v Alexis Galarneau

Every number combines what Jaume Munar does well with what Alexis Galarneau allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Jaume Munar wins, best of 3 34%90%: 9%–69% · best of 5: 30%

Serve points won 56.9% / 60.2% Jaume / Alexis · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 34%serve 56.9% / 60.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Jaume Munar's record against Alexis Galarneau's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Jaume Munar serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Jaume wins	v Alexis	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	68%	74%	69.5%±9.9	68% ▲
Body	10%	65%	63%	65.5%±13.7	0% ▼
T	35%	73%	74%	72.2%±10.5	32% ▼

Optimal v Alexis Galarneau: +0.2±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Jaume wins	v Alexis	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	68%	74%	69.0%±10.8	51%
Body	14%	64%	52%	53.5%±14.3	1% ▼
T	35%	66%	66%	59.2%±11.9	48% ▲

Optimal v Alexis Galarneau: +0.3±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Alexis Galarneau serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alexis wins	v Jaume	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	69%	72%	67.9%±9.8	61% ▲
Body	20%	65%	54%	56.6%±13.7	7% ▼
T	33%	68%	71%	64.1%±11.7	32%

Optimal v Jaume Munar: +0.8±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alexis wins	v Jaume	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	67%	70%	63.5%±9.5	50% ▼
Body	10%	61%	63%	61.1%±14.6	0% ▼
T	37%	76%	69%	74.1%±10.2	50% ▲

Optimal v Jaume Munar: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Jaume Munar returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexis	Value
FH through the middle	44%	+4.3	−0.4	+0.6	+4.5±2.7
FH slice through the middle	22%	−4.2	+0.7	−0.4	−3.9±1.7
FH down the line	13%	+1.7	−0.2	+1.1	+2.6±4.0
FH crosscourt	11%	+5.5	+2.3	+3.2	+11.0±4.1
FH slice down the line	7%	−4.3	+1.8	±0.0	−2.4±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +8.6±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (701 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexis	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.4	+2.3	−0.9	+7.9±2.4
BH crosscourt	27%	+8.8	+1.2	+0.9	+10.8±3.2
BH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	−0.1	+0.3	−4.0±2.0
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	+1.9	−0.5	+5.7±3.8
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−1.6	±0.0	−1.1±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.8±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (760 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexis	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.5	+2.5	−0.8	−1.8±2.8
FH crosscourt	25%	−0.2	+0.4	−0.7	−0.6±3.9
FH down the line	21%	−1.8	+0.8	+1.2	+0.3±4.1
FH slice through the middle	6%	−12.7	+0.8	±0.0	−11.9±1.3
FH slice down the line	4%	−9.4	+0.6	±0.0	−8.8±1.4

Lean FH down the line: +2.2±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (170 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexis	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.9	−0.7	−1.8	−5.4±2.3
BH crosscourt	29%	+1.0	+1.3	−2.4	−0.1±3.1
BH down the line	13%	−0.2	+2.2	±0.0	+1.9±3.5
FH through the middle	6%	−2.9	−1.1	−0.8	−4.8±2.3
FH inside-in	3%	+0.6	−0.1	−0.7	−0.2±3.5

Lean BH down the line: +4.5±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (456 returns charted)

Alexis Galarneau returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jaume	Value
FH through the middle	59%	+4.3	+0.4	+1.2	+5.9±2.5
FH down the line	23%	+1.7	+2.3	+0.3	+4.2±3.8
FH crosscourt	9%	+5.5	−1.9	+2.3	+6.0±3.1
FH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−0.8	−0.5	−5.5±1.9

Lean FH through the middle: +1.4±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (56 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jaume	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	−2.5	−0.8	+3.2±2.3
BH crosscourt	30%	+8.8	−1.6	+0.3	+7.6±2.9
BH down the line	14%	+4.2	+0.7	+1.6	+6.5±3.7
BH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	−0.5	−1.1	−5.8±2.0

Lean BH through the middle: −0.7±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (43 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Jaume Munar

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	+4.7±3.2	+2.5	+2.2
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+2.8±3.0	+1.3	+1.5
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.3±3.8	+0.4	+1.9
BH to their backhand · return	+2.3±4.3	+3.9	−1.6
BH to the middle · rally	+1.6±2.8	+1.8	−0.2
FH to the middle · rally	±0.0±3.0	+1.7	−1.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−4.2±5.5	+2.0	−6.2
BH to the middle · return	−2.1±3.3	+1.1	−3.2
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.8±4.2	+0.6	−2.4
FH to the middle · rally	±0.0±3.0	+1.7	−1.7
BH to the middle · rally	+1.6±2.8	+1.8	−0.2

Alexis Galarneau

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · rally	+5.4±2.8	+3.3	+2.1
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.1±3.5	+2.0	+1.1
FH to the middle · return	+3.0±3.5	+1.3	+1.7
BH to their backhand · rally	+1.4±3.2	+0.9	+0.4
BH to the middle · rally	+1.3±2.9	+1.7	−0.4
FH to their forehand · rally	+1.3±4.0	−0.9	+2.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+1.3±4.0	−0.9	+2.1
BH to the middle · rally	+1.3±2.9	+1.7	−0.4
BH to their backhand · rally	+1.4±3.2	+0.9	+0.4
FH to the middle · return	+3.0±3.5	+1.3	+1.7
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.1±3.5	+2.0	+1.1

Against Alexis Galarneau-like opponents

Jaume Munar v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	60.1%	37.4%