Game plan

Jaume Munar v Nicolas Lapentti

Every number combines what Jaume Munar does well with what Nicolas Lapentti allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Jaume Munar wins, best of 3 79%90%: 51%–95% · best of 5: 85%

Serve points won 64.3% / 57.9% Jaume / Nicolas · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 79%serve 64.3% / 57.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Jaume Munar's record against Nicolas Lapentti's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Jaume	Nicolas
Direction choice	−0.01 ±0.08 better than 53%	−0.23 ±0.09 better than 10%
Shot selection	−0.31 ±0.21 better than 22%	−0.67 ±0.44 better than 6%
Execution	+0.60 ±0.36 better than 86%	−0.88 ±1.05 better than 29%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Jaume Munar serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Jaume wins	v Nicolas	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	68%	79%	74.6%±8.2	51% ▼
Body	10%	65%	64%	65.8%±14.9	0% ▼
T	35%	73%	76%	74.5%±9.4	49% ▲

Optimal v Nicolas Lapentti: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Jaume wins	v Nicolas	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	68%	68%	62.3%±10.5	38% ▼
Body	14%	64%	64%	65.4%±15.2	14%
T	35%	66%	69%	63.0%±10.8	48% ▲

Optimal v Nicolas Lapentti: ±0.0±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Nicolas Lapentti serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Nicolas wins	v Jaume	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	30%	71%	72%	70.1%±9.9	43% ▲
Body	8%	52%	54%	43.0%±14.0	0% ▼
T	62%	73%	71%	69.1%±9.1	57% ▼

Optimal v Jaume Munar: +0.6±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Nicolas wins	v Jaume	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	68%	70%	65.2%±9.3	56% ▲
Body	13%	64%	63%	64.2%±13.3	0% ▼
T	44%	59%	69%	55.8%±10.2	44%

Optimal v Jaume Munar: +0.2±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Jaume Munar returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nicolas	Value
FH through the middle	44%	+4.3	−0.4	−0.1	+3.7±2.7
FH slice through the middle	22%	−4.2	+0.7	±0.0	−3.5±1.4
FH down the line	13%	+1.7	−0.2	+1.4	+2.9±4.2
FH crosscourt	11%	+5.5	+2.3	−2.0	+5.7±4.3
FH slice down the line	7%	−4.3	+1.8	±0.0	−2.4±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.2±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (701 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nicolas	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.4	+2.3	−0.2	+8.5±2.4
BH crosscourt	27%	+8.8	+1.2	+0.9	+10.9±3.1
BH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	−0.1	+0.5	−3.8±2.4
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	+1.9	+1.8	+7.9±4.3
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−1.6	+0.6	−0.5±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.2±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (760 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nicolas	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.5	+2.5	+0.1	−0.8±2.8
FH crosscourt	25%	−0.2	+0.4	+1.3	+1.4±4.3
FH down the line	21%	−1.8	+0.8	−1.1	−2.1±4.5
FH slice through the middle	6%	−12.7	+0.8	±0.0	−11.9±1.3
FH slice down the line	4%	−9.4	+0.6	±0.0	−8.8±1.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.9±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (170 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nicolas	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.9	−0.7	+0.7	−2.9±2.2
BH crosscourt	29%	+1.0	+1.3	+1.2	+3.5±3.1
BH down the line	13%	−0.2	+2.2	+0.5	+2.5±4.6
FH through the middle	6%	−2.9	−1.1	+0.1	−3.9±2.3
FH inside-in	3%	+0.6	−0.1	+1.3	+1.7±3.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.7±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (456 returns charted)

Nicolas Lapentti returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jaume	Value
FH down the line	27%	+1.7	−0.1	+0.3	+1.8±4.1
FH slice through the middle	26%	−4.2	+0.6	−0.5	−4.1±2.2
FH through the middle	24%	+4.3	−3.0	+1.2	+2.5±2.4
FH crosscourt	13%	+5.5	+0.1	+2.3	+7.9±3.5
FH slice down the line	10%	−4.3	+1.3	+1.2	−1.7±2.7

Lean FH through the middle: +1.6±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (84 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jaume	Value
BH through the middle	25%	+6.4	−1.0	−0.8	+4.7±2.3
BH slice through the middle	25%	−4.2	−1.0	−1.1	−6.3±2.4
BH down the line	15%	+4.2	+0.6	+1.6	+6.4±4.0
BH crosscourt	14%	+8.8	−0.4	+0.3	+8.7±2.8
BH slice crosscourt	14%	+0.5	−0.4	−1.9	−1.8±2.6

Lean BH through the middle: +3.8±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (73 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jaume	Value
BH through the middle	35%	−2.9	+0.5	−1.6	−4.0±2.3
BH crosscourt	28%	+1.0	+1.2	−1.1	+1.2±2.8
FH through the middle	17%	−2.9	±0.0	+1.1	−1.8±1.8
FH inside-out	12%	+1.0	+0.4	−0.2	+1.2±2.9
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	−2.2	+3.3	+0.9±4.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (60 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Jaume Munar

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.9±2.8	+2.5	+0.4
FH to their forehand · rally	+1.8±3.8	+0.4	+1.5
FH to the middle · return	+0.5±3.6	+1.1	−0.5
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.1±4.0	+0.6	−0.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.1±4.0	+0.6	−0.5
FH to the middle · return	+0.5±3.6	+1.1	−0.5
FH to their forehand · rally	+1.8±3.8	+0.4	+1.5
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.9±2.8	+2.5	+0.4

Nicolas Lapentti

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.9±4.2	+1.7	+2.1
FH to the middle · rally	+1.6±3.1	−0.4	+2.1
BH to their backhand · rally	+0.5±3.5	+0.1	+0.4
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+0.4±5.0	+2.1	−1.7
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−1.0±3.2	−0.1	−0.9
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−1.3±4.6	+0.8	−2.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · rally	−2.5±2.9	−2.1	−0.4
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.7±3.8	−2.8	+1.1
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−1.3±4.6	+0.8	−2.2
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−1.0±3.2	−0.1	−0.9
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+0.4±5.0	+2.1	−1.7

Against Nicolas Lapentti-like opponents

Jaume Munar v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	60.1%	37.4%