Game plan

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo v Guillermo Vilas

Every number combines what Juan Carlos Prado Angelo does well with what Guillermo Vilas allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo wins, best of 3 61%90%: 25%–90% · best of 5: 64%

Serve points won 60.7% / 58.5% Juan / Guillermo · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 61%serve 60.7% / 58.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Juan Carlos Prado Angelo's record against Guillermo Vilas's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Juan	Guillermo
Direction choice	−0.03 ±0.13 better than 48%	−0.79 ±0.13 better than 0%
Shot selection	+0.49 ±0.18 better than 92%	−0.45 ±0.60 better than 13%
Execution	−1.24 ±0.54 better than 17%	+0.88 ±1.06 better than 94%
Points left on the table	2.38 ±0.15 lower than 75%	4.15 ±0.84 lower than 3%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Juan wins	v Guillermo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	27%	69%	67%	63.4%±12.1	40% ▲
Body	2%	65%	65%	66.3%±16.5	2%
T	71%	64%	75%	63.7%±11.8	58% ▼

Optimal v Guillermo Vilas: +0.2±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Juan wins	v Guillermo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	67%	76%	71.3%±10.8	67% ▲
Body	1%	65%	71%	72.8%±15.1	1%
T	45%	63%	65%	55.3%±12.7	32% ▼

Optimal v Guillermo Vilas: +0.4±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +8.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Guillermo Vilas serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Guillermo wins	v Juan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	22%	62%	70%	58.2%±13.4	35% ▲
Body	13%	52%	64%	52.8%±18.2	0% ▼
T	64%	61%	67%	51.6%±10.2	65%

Optimal v Juan Carlos Prado Angelo: +0.6±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Guillermo wins	v Juan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	63%	63%	65%	54.0%±10.2	50% ▼
Body	13%	66%	66%	69.1%±16.5	13%
T	24%	72%	69%	69.0%±12.6	37% ▲

Optimal v Juan Carlos Prado Angelo: +0.5±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +9.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Guillermo	Value
FH through the middle	60%	+4.3	+2.8	−1.7	+5.4±3.1
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.5	+3.1	+1.3	+9.9±4.1
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	+2.4	+4.0	+8.2±4.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.0±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (94 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Guillermo	Value
BH through the middle	52%	+6.4	+2.8	+1.5	+10.7±2.8
BH crosscourt	31%	+8.8	+3.1	+0.9	+12.8±3.4
BH down the line	15%	+4.2	+3.7	+1.4	+9.3±4.5
BH slice through the middle	3%	−4.2	+0.2	+2.2	−1.8±2.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.0±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (185 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Guillermo	Value
BH through the middle	38%	−2.9	+0.7	+0.1	−2.1±2.6
BH crosscourt	22%	+1.0	−2.2	+1.0	−0.2±3.1
FH through the middle	16%	−2.9	−0.4	+0.7	−2.6±2.4
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	−2.2	−3.3	−5.7±4.0
FH inside-out	8%	+1.0	−1.8	−0.7	−1.5±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.7±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (141 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Guillermo Vilas returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
FH through the middle	55%	+4.3	−2.6	+2.8	+4.5±3.1
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.5	+1.7	+2.2	+9.4±3.8
FH down the line	21%	+1.7	−3.3	+1.8	+0.3±3.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.7±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (84 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.4	+0.7	+3.6	+10.7±2.8
BH slice through the middle	21%	−4.2	+0.8	+0.4	−2.9±2.0
BH down the line	19%	+4.2	+0.9	+3.4	+8.5±4.5
BH crosscourt	9%	+8.8	−1.9	+3.5	+10.4±3.2
BH slice down the line	6%	−8.4	−0.9	±0.0	−9.3±1.6

Lean BH through the middle: +4.9±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (121 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
BH through the middle	45%	−2.9	−0.1	−1.0	−4.0±2.6
BH down the line	19%	−0.2	+1.5	+1.1	+2.5±4.7
BH crosscourt	13%	+1.0	+0.7	+0.6	+2.4±2.8
FH inside-in	12%	+0.6	+0.1	+2.1	+2.8±3.8
FH through the middle	12%	−2.9	+0.9	±0.0	−2.0±2.2

Lean BH down the line: +3.4±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (95 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+5.2±2.5	+3.2	+1.9
BH to the middle · rally	+5.0±1.9	+2.5	+2.5
BH to their backhand · return	+3.1±3.4	+2.3	+0.8
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.0±4.0	+2.1	+0.9
FH to the middle · rally	+2.5±2.3	+2.0	+0.5
FH to the middle · return	+0.5±2.9	+1.5	−1.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.9±3.1	−0.9	−1.1
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.2±2.4	−1.0	+0.8
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.1±2.7	−1.1	+1.2
FH to the middle · return	+0.5±2.9	+1.5	−1.0
FH to the middle · rally	+2.5±2.3	+2.0	+0.5

Guillermo Vilas

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · rally	+5.2±2.2	+1.9	+3.3
BH to their backhand · rally	+4.3±2.7	+3.7	+0.6
BH to the middle · return	+3.7±2.5	+1.0	+2.7
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.5±2.7	+2.6	+0.9
BH to the middle · rally	+3.2±1.9	+1.7	+1.5
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.3±3.3	+0.2	+2.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	−1.1±2.8	−2.4	+1.2
BH to their forehand · rally	+1.1±4.3	+3.6	−2.6
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.3±3.3	+0.2	+2.2
BH to the middle · rally	+3.2±1.9	+1.7	+1.5
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.5±2.7	+2.6	+0.9

Against Guillermo Vilas-like opponents

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	57.1%	40.6%