Game plan
Kurumi Nara v Darja Vidmanova
Every number combines what Kurumi Nara does well with what Darja Vidmanova allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Kurumi Nara's record against Darja Vidmanova's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Kurumi Nara serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Kurumi wins | v Darja | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 37% | 56% | 59% | 49.1%±12.8 | 44% ▲ |
| Body | 35% | 55% | 59% | 57.0%±13.5 | 39% ▲ |
| T | 28% | 54% | 64% | 49.3%±15.1 | 17% ▼ |
Optimal v Darja Vidmanova: ±0.0±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +5.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Kurumi wins | v Darja | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 39% | 64% | 62% | 61.0%±12.5 | 54% ▲ |
| Body | 29% | 55% | 59% | 58.2%±14.6 | 13% ▼ |
| T | 32% | 57% | 67% | 59.8%±14.2 | 33% |
Optimal v Darja Vidmanova: +0.6±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Darja Vidmanova serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Darja wins | v Kurumi | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 51% | 61% | 60% | 54.9%±11.7 | 51% |
| Body | 19% | 57% | 55% | 54.8%±15.5 | 3% ▼ |
| T | 31% | 68% | 74% | 74.1%±12.6 | 46% ▲ |
Optimal v Kurumi Nara: +0.9±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +13.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Darja wins | v Kurumi | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 52% | 69% | 66% | 69.1%±12.5 | 47% ▼ |
| Body | 11% | 53% | 61% | 57.6%±16.2 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 38% | 64% | 72% | 71.2%±11.3 | 53% ▲ |
Optimal v Kurumi Nara: +0.7±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Kurumi Nara returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Darja | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 61% | +4.2 | −2.6 | −1.7 | −0.1±3.2 |
| FH crosscourt | 22% | +5.3 | −0.8 | −2.1 | +2.4±4.1 |
| FH down the line | 17% | +1.5 | +3.0 | −1.5 | +3.1±3.9 |
Lean FH down the line: +2.1±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (108 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Darja | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 50% | +6.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 | +4.5±2.8 |
| BH crosscourt | 33% | +7.7 | −1.6 | +0.5 | +6.6±3.3 |
| BH down the line | 17% | +2.2 | +1.6 | −2.6 | +1.2±3.5 |
Lean BH through the middle: −0.2±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (42 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Darja Vidmanova returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Kurumi | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH slice through the middle | 43% | −6.7 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | −5.7±1.8 |
| FH through the middle | 31% | +4.2 | +2.0 | −1.2 | +4.9±3.1 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 16% | −6.6 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | −5.4±1.6 |
| FH down the line | 11% | +1.5 | +0.5 | +4.3 | +6.3±3.8 |
Lean FH through the middle: +6.1±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (75 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Kurumi | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 55% | +6.0 | +1.6 | +0.9 | +8.5±2.9 |
| BH crosscourt | 23% | +7.7 | +2.4 | +1.3 | +11.4±3.4 |
| BH down the line | 22% | +2.2 | −0.8 | +2.1 | +3.5±4.0 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +3.3±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (64 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Kurumi Nara
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · rally | +4.2±4.9 | −2.8 | +7.0 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +2.9±4.4 | −0.1 | +3.0 |
| FH to the middle · rally | +2.8±3.4 | +1.3 | +1.5 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | +0.2±4.8 | +0.5 | −0.3 |
| FH to the middle · return | −1.1±4.3 | −0.4 | −0.7 |
| BH to the middle · return | −1.3±4.1 | −1.7 | +0.4 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to the middle · return | −1.3±4.1 | −1.7 | +0.4 |
| FH to the middle · return | −1.1±4.3 | −0.4 | −0.7 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | +0.2±4.8 | +0.5 | −0.3 |
| FH to the middle · rally | +2.8±3.4 | +1.3 | +1.5 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +2.9±4.4 | −0.1 | +3.0 |
Darja Vidmanova
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to the middle · rally | +5.6±2.9 | +4.1 | +1.5 |
| FH to the middle · return | +4.4±4.4 | +4.0 | +0.4 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +4.0±4.9 | +4.6 | −0.6 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +3.0±6.1 | +4.2 | −1.2 |
| BH to the middle · return | +2.7±4.0 | +2.0 | +0.8 |
| FH to the middle · rally | +2.6±3.3 | +3.0 | −0.4 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their backhand · rally | +1.5±4.8 | +3.6 | −2.1 |
| FH to the middle · rally | +2.6±3.3 | +3.0 | −0.4 |
| BH to the middle · return | +2.7±4.0 | +2.0 | +0.8 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +3.0±6.1 | +4.2 | −1.2 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +4.0±4.9 | +4.6 | −0.6 |
Against Darja Vidmanova-like opponents
| Kurumi Nara v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 49.9% | 42.2% |