Game plan

Lauren Davis v Ajla Tomljanovic

Every number combines what Lauren Davis does well with what Ajla Tomljanovic allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Lauren Davis wins, best of 3 53%90%: 15%–89% · best of 5: 54%

Serve points won 56.7% / 56.1% Lauren / Ajla · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 49%serve 56.3% / 56.4%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Lauren Davis's record against Ajla Tomljanovic's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +4.1 on serve, +4.3 on return vs expectation (273 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Lauren	Ajla
Direction choice	−0.46 ±0.13 better than 0%	−0.42 ±0.09 better than 1%
Shot selection	−0.22 ±0.24 better than 27%	−0.34 ±0.13 better than 19%
Execution	−1.15 ±0.69 better than 16%	+0.24 ±0.70 better than 70%
Points left on the table	3.09 ±0.14 lower than 8%	3.06 ±0.13 lower than 9%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Lauren Davis serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Lauren wins	v Ajla	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	59%	68%	61.4%±8.5	44% ▲
Body	33%	56%	59%	57.5%±9.5	18% ▼
T	32%	64%	77%	73.0%±8.6	38% ▲

Optimal v Ajla Tomljanovic: +0.2±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +9.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Lauren wins	v Ajla	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	30%	59%	77%	70.9%±8.7	45% ▲
Body	29%	55%	64%	62.6%±10.1	18% ▼
T	41%	60%	64%	59.1%±8.7	37% ▼

Optimal v Ajla Tomljanovic: +0.3±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +7.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ajla Tomljanovic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Ajla wins	v Lauren	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	64%	72%	69.9%±7.4	40%
Body	29%	55%	56%	53.2%±10.3	14% ▼
T	30%	72%	73%	76.9%±7.7	46% ▲

Optimal v Lauren Davis: +1.4±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +9.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Ajla wins	v Lauren	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	60%	64%	58.4%±9.1	39%
Body	23%	47%	62%	53.8%±11.4	8% ▼
T	37%	66%	66%	67.6%±8.4	53% ▲

Optimal v Lauren Davis: +1.0±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Lauren Davis returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ajla	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.2	+0.8	+1.3	+6.2±2.8
FH down the line	21%	+1.5	−1.1	−0.1	+0.3±4.7
FH slice through the middle	17%	−6.7	−0.1	+0.3	−6.5±2.5
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.3	−2.2	+1.6	+4.6±4.3
FH slice down the line	3%	−10.5	+0.7	−0.5	−10.3±2.1

Lean FH through the middle: +4.2±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (236 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ajla	Value
BH through the middle	54%	+6.0	+1.4	−1.2	+6.3±2.6
BH crosscourt	20%	+7.7	+2.1	−3.0	+6.8±3.6
BH down the line	14%	+2.2	+1.8	+2.8	+6.7±4.4
BH slice through the middle	9%	−6.2	−0.9	−0.8	−7.9±2.2
BH slice down the line	3%	−12.5	−0.6	−2.3	−15.3±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.3±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (162 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ajla	Value
FH through the middle	52%	−3.2	−0.4	−0.6	−4.2±2.8
FH crosscourt	33%	+0.5	−1.2	−1.2	−1.9±4.0
FH down the line	15%	−0.6	+0.2	+2.2	+1.9±4.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +0.6±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (52 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ajla	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.6	−1.3	+0.1	−3.8±2.8
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.5	−2.9	−1.8	−3.3±3.5
BH down the line	19%	−0.5	−2.4	+1.7	−1.2±4.9

Lean BH down the line: +1.9±4.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (100 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Ajla Tomljanovic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lauren	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.2	−3.0	+0.8	+1.9±2.8
FH slice through the middle	20%	−6.7	+2.0	+0.1	−4.7±2.3
FH down the line	16%	+1.5	+2.6	+2.0	+6.1±4.7
FH crosscourt	11%	+5.3	−1.5	+2.1	+5.8±4.2
FH slice down the line	6%	−10.5	+0.4	±0.0	−10.1±2.2

Lean FH down the line: +5.4±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (312 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lauren	Value
BH through the middle	34%	+6.0	−2.0	+0.4	+4.5±2.8
BH crosscourt	24%	+7.7	−0.9	+2.6	+9.4±3.7
BH down the line	16%	+2.2	−0.9	+0.2	+1.5±4.6
BH slice through the middle	13%	−6.2	−0.6	−0.3	−7.1±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	9%	−4.2	−1.7	±0.0	−5.9±1.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.5±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (187 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lauren	Value
FH through the middle	51%	−3.2	−0.8	+1.5	−2.4±3.1
FH crosscourt	26%	+0.5	−1.0	+1.9	+1.4±4.3
FH down the line	23%	−0.6	±0.0	+1.0	+0.5±5.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.2±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (86 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lauren	Value
BH through the middle	54%	−2.6	−1.8	+0.8	−3.6±2.7
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.5	+0.9	+1.5	+3.9±3.7
BH down the line	11%	−0.5	−3.2	−1.4	−5.2±4.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.1±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (105 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Lauren Davis

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · rally	+4.6±3.0	+2.7	+1.9
FH to the middle · return	+3.3±3.6	+3.0	+0.3
FH to the middle · rally	+2.6±3.2	+2.0	+0.6
BH to their forehand · return	+2.6±5.3	−0.1	+2.7
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.5±5.2	−2.0	+3.4
FH to their forehand · return	+0.6±5.1	−1.2	+1.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return +1	−8.2±4.2	−6.3	−1.8
FH to their backhand · return +1	−7.4±5.0	−4.6	−2.8
BH to their backhand · return	−5.6±4.7	−0.8	−4.7
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−5.0±5.6	−1.7	−3.2
BH to the middle · serve +1	−4.6±3.3	−1.7	−2.9

Ajla Tomljanovic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+4.3±4.8	+2.3	+2.0
FH to their backhand · return	+1.8±5.1	−0.1	+2.0
BH to the middle · return +1	+1.6±3.3	+1.1	+0.6
BH to their forehand · rally	+1.5±5.8	+3.5	−2.0
FH to the middle · return +1	+1.1±2.7	+2.3	−1.2
FH to the middle · rally	+0.5±2.6	+1.4	−0.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	−7.1±3.4	−8.5	+1.4
BH to the middle · rally	−5.7±2.9	−3.4	−2.3
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−5.3±5.4	−6.2	+0.9
FH to their backhand · rally	−3.9±5.2	−3.5	−0.4
FH to their forehand · return	−3.2±5.7	−7.5	+4.3

Against Ajla Tomljanovic-like opponents

Lauren Davis v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	49.6%	39.2%
Players most similar to Ajla Tomljanovic	2	54.4%	43.8%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Iva Jovic, Elina Svitolina, Jessica Pegula, Kimberly Birrell, Emma Navarro, Jaqueline Cristian, Emma Raducanu, Nao Hibino, Lin Zhu. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.