Game plan

Lulu Sun v Robin Montgomery

Every number combines what Lulu Sun does well with what Robin Montgomery allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Lulu Sun wins, best of 3 61%90%: 27%–88% · best of 5: 64%

Serve points won 63.4% / 61.2% Lulu / Robin · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 61%serve 63.4% / 61.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Lulu Sun's record against Robin Montgomery's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Lulu	Robin
Direction choice	−0.04 ±0.13 better than 48%	−0.38 ±0.19 better than 2%
Shot selection	+0.31 ±0.35 better than 79%	+0.05 ±0.23 better than 50%
Execution	−0.39 ±1.24 better than 39%	−1.17 ±1.25 better than 16%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Lulu Sun serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Lulu wins	v Robin	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	30%	67%	69%	70.2%±10.7	31%
Body	24%	53%	61%	55.9%±12.5	9% ▼
T	45%	69%	74%	74.3%±10.0	60% ▲

Optimal v Robin Montgomery: +0.7±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Lulu wins	v Robin	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	73%	65%	72.3%±9.9	41%
Body	16%	62%	43%	49.6%±15.0	1% ▼
T	42%	84%	63%	83.2%±8.3	58% ▲

Optimal v Robin Montgomery: +1.3±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +9.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Robin Montgomery serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Robin wins	v Lulu	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	32%	72%	70%	75.8%±9.4	48% ▲
Body	28%	62%	53%	57.6%±12.5	13% ▼
T	40%	69%	71%	71.6%±10.9	39%

Optimal v Lulu Sun: +1.1±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +6.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Robin wins	v Lulu	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	61%	71%	67.0%±10.6	54% ▲
Body	21%	60%	58%	61.5%±13.0	6% ▼
T	40%	73%	65%	73.9%±9.4	40%

Optimal v Lulu Sun: +0.7±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Lulu Sun returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Robin	Value
FH through the middle	59%	+4.2	−0.2	+1.2	+5.2±3.2
FH crosscourt	26%	+5.3	+0.9	−5.1	+1.1±4.2
FH down the line	15%	+1.5	−3.0	−2.1	−3.6±4.0

Lean FH through the middle: +2.3±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (95 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Robin	Value
BH through the middle	46%	+6.0	−1.6	+1.4	+5.8±2.9
BH crosscourt	27%	+7.7	+2.1	−3.4	+6.4±3.6
BH slice through the middle	12%	−6.2	±0.0	−1.4	−7.6±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	8%	−4.2	−3.5	±0.0	−7.7±1.9
BH down the line	7%	+2.2	−0.5	+1.7	+3.5±4.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.3±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (214 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Robin	Value
BH crosscourt	48%	+1.5	−1.3	−2.3	−2.1±3.1
BH through the middle	46%	−2.6	−0.1	−0.1	−2.7±2.8
FH through the middle	6%	−2.7	−0.5	+1.4	−1.7±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.3±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (87 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Robin Montgomery returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lulu	Value
FH through the middle	65%	+4.2	+0.2	−0.1	+4.3±3.2
FH down the line	20%	+1.5	−1.1	−2.7	−2.3±4.5
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.3	±0.0	−2.8	+2.5±3.8

Lean FH through the middle: +1.6±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (98 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lulu	Value
BH through the middle	45%	+6.0	+0.1	+1.2	+7.3±2.9
BH crosscourt	24%	+7.7	−0.2	−5.2	+2.3±3.6
BH slice through the middle	14%	−6.2	−3.1	+1.3	−8.0±2.2
BH down the line	13%	+2.2	−1.7	−1.4	−1.0±4.2
BH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.2	−1.1	−1.5	−6.8±1.9

Lean BH through the middle: +5.0±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (118 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lulu	Value
BH through the middle	59%	−2.6	+0.5	−0.1	−2.2±2.8
BH crosscourt	22%	+1.5	−1.8	−2.3	−2.7±3.2
BH down the line	19%	−0.5	−3.1	+2.5	−1.1±4.7

Lean BH through the middle: −0.1±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (63 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Lulu Sun

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+3.8±6.6	+4.0	−0.1
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.7±5.5	+1.9	−0.2
FH to the middle · rally	+1.7±3.6	+0.8	+0.8
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+1.1±6.0	+3.0	−1.9
BH to the middle · return	+0.2±3.5	−0.1	+0.3
FH to the middle · serve +1	+0.1±4.1	−1.8	+1.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.6±6.4	−0.2	−3.4
BH to the middle · rally	−3.3±3.5	−4.8	+1.5
FH to the middle · return	−2.6±4.3	−4.1	+1.5
FH to their forehand · rally	−0.8±5.4	+3.1	−3.9
BH to their forehand · rally	−0.6±6.4	+0.2	−0.8

Robin Montgomery

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	+5.8±6.5	±0.0	+5.8
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.4±5.3	+0.6	+0.9
FH to their forehand · rally	+0.1±5.4	−2.6	+2.7
BH to the middle · return	−0.1±3.8	+1.2	−1.3
FH to the middle · return	−0.6±4.0	±0.0	−0.5
FH to the middle · rally	−2.1±3.7	−0.9	−1.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−9.2±6.2	−9.6	+0.4
BH to their forehand · rally	−3.8±6.7	−2.1	−1.7
BH to the middle · rally	−3.8±3.3	−2.5	−1.3
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−2.5±6.2	−6.6	+4.2
FH to the middle · rally	−2.1±3.7	−0.9	−1.1

Against Robin Montgomery-like opponents

Lulu Sun v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	62.3%	39.1%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Alexandra Eala, Jasmine Paolini, Maya Joint, Shuai Zhang, Xiyu Wang, Nao Hibino, Bernarda Pera, Irina Camelia Begu, Dominika Cibulkova. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.