Game plan
Maja Chwalinska v Maria Kirilenko
Every number combines what Maja Chwalinska does well with what Maria Kirilenko allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Maja Chwalinska's record against Maria Kirilenko's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Maja Chwalinska serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Maja wins | v Maria | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 26% | 62% | 65% | 60.3%±12.2 | 36% ▲ |
| Body | 28% | 55% | 54% | 52.1%±13.7 | 13% ▼ |
| T | 46% | 65% | 79% | 76.6%±10.0 | 51% ▲ |
Optimal v Maria Kirilenko: +0.7±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +11.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Maja wins | v Maria | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 53% | 60% | 63% | 57.1%±12.0 | 52% |
| Body | 22% | 53% | 57% | 53.6%±14.2 | 7% ▼ |
| T | 26% | 67% | 71% | 73.3%±10.4 | 41% ▲ |
Optimal v Maria Kirilenko: +1.1±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +12.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Maria Kirilenko serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Maria wins | v Maja | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 44% | 63% | 58% | 55.2%±11.4 | 59% ▲ |
| Body | 24% | 62% | 57% | 61.2%±13.3 | 24% |
| T | 32% | 53% | 62% | 46.2%±13.3 | 17% ▼ |
Optimal v Maja Chwalinska: +0.3±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +7.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Maria wins | v Maja | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 29% | 70% | 59% | 63.8%±13.7 | 44% ▲ |
| Body | 20% | 52% | 53% | 48.2%±13.9 | 4% ▼ |
| T | 51% | 56% | 58% | 49.3%±11.4 | 52% |
Optimal v Maja Chwalinska: +0.6±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +10.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Maja Chwalinska returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Maria | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 41% | +4.2 | +3.2 | +0.6 | +7.9±3.2 |
| FH crosscourt | 21% | +5.3 | +3.3 | +0.7 | +9.3±4.2 |
| FH slice through the middle | 17% | −6.7 | +1.6 | ±0.0 | −5.2±1.6 |
| FH down the line | 14% | +1.5 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +3.4±4.4 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 7% | −6.6 | +1.5 | ±0.0 | −5.2±1.4 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +4.9±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (111 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Maria | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 43% | +6.0 | +1.2 | +1.5 | +8.7±2.9 |
| BH crosscourt | 33% | +7.7 | +2.4 | −0.5 | +9.7±3.2 |
| BH down the line | 16% | +2.2 | +3.6 | −0.3 | +5.4±4.5 |
| BH slice through the middle | 3% | −6.2 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −6.8±1.2 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 3% | −4.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −4.1±1.3 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +2.5±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (236 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Maria | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 31% | −2.6 | +1.6 | +1.4 | +0.4±2.7 |
| BH crosscourt | 29% | +1.5 | ±0.0 | +3.3 | +4.8±3.3 |
| FH through the middle | 18% | −2.7 | −1.1 | −0.3 | −4.1±2.5 |
| BH down the line | 11% | −0.5 | −1.3 | +0.3 | −1.6±4.4 |
| FH inside-in | 5% | +0.7 | +0.5 | +2.6 | +3.9±3.3 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +4.0±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (110 returns charted)
Maria Kirilenko returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Maja | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 40% | +4.2 | +1.4 | +0.2 | +5.7±3.1 |
| FH crosscourt | 24% | +5.3 | +0.7 | +2.7 | +8.7±4.2 |
| FH down the line | 17% | +1.5 | −0.9 | +3.2 | +3.8±4.4 |
| FH slice through the middle | 11% | −6.7 | +0.3 | −1.2 | −7.7±1.8 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 8% | −6.6 | +0.1 | +1.0 | −5.5±2.0 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +5.0±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (88 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Maja | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 44% | +6.0 | −4.1 | +2.1 | +4.0±2.6 |
| BH crosscourt | 33% | +7.7 | +1.4 | +1.3 | +10.5±3.4 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 13% | −4.2 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −4.8±1.4 |
| BH down the line | 9% | +2.2 | +0.5 | +2.7 | +5.4±3.8 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +5.3±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (54 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Maja Chwalinska
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to the middle · return | +6.5±4.1 | +4.6 | +2.0 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | +5.5±4.3 | +3.6 | +1.9 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +5.3±6.0 | −0.6 | +5.9 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +4.7±5.4 | +2.8 | +2.0 |
| BH to the middle · rally | +4.3±3.2 | +2.0 | +2.3 |
| FH to the middle · return | +3.6±3.8 | +1.8 | +1.8 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their forehand · rally | +0.2±5.9 | +2.9 | −2.7 |
| FH to the middle · return | +3.6±3.8 | +1.8 | +1.8 |
| BH to the middle · rally | +4.3±3.2 | +2.0 | +2.3 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +4.7±5.4 | +2.8 | +2.0 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +5.3±6.0 | −0.6 | +5.9 |
Maria Kirilenko
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to the middle · rally | +3.5±4.0 | +3.6 | −0.2 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +2.0±5.9 | +2.6 | −0.5 |
| BH to the middle · rally | +0.6±3.6 | −0.1 | +0.6 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −0.9±5.3 | +1.1 | −2.0 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −7.3±4.9 | −4.4 | −3.0 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their backhand · rally | −7.3±4.9 | −4.4 | −3.0 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −0.9±5.3 | +1.1 | −2.0 |
| BH to the middle · rally | +0.6±3.6 | −0.1 | +0.6 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +2.0±5.9 | +2.6 | −0.5 |
| FH to the middle · rally | +3.5±4.0 | +3.6 | −0.2 |
Against Maria Kirilenko-like opponents
| Maja Chwalinska v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 58.7% | 49.2% |