Game plan

Marc Polmans v Raphael Collignon

Every number combines what Marc Polmans does well with what Raphael Collignon allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Marc Polmans wins, best of 3 39%90%: 10%–77% · best of 5: 37%

Serve points won 59.1% / 61.2% Marc / Raphael · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 39%serve 59.1% / 61.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Marc Polmans's record against Raphael Collignon's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Marc	Raphael
Direction choice	−0.06 ±0.12 better than 41%	±0.00 ±0.08 better than 56%
Shot selection	−0.65 ±0.46 better than 7%	+0.31 ±0.27 better than 81%
Execution	+0.69 ±0.94 better than 88%	−0.34 ±0.59 better than 52%
Points left on the table	2.26 ±0.13 lower than 87%	2.32 ±0.21 lower than 82%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Marc Polmans serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Marc wins	v Raphael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	71%	75%	72.7%±9.5	46%
Body	14%	53%	67%	57.4%±14.5	1% ▼
T	40%	76%	76%	77.0%±9.2	53% ▲

Optimal v Raphael Collignon: +0.6±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Marc wins	v Raphael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	57%	66%	70%	63.3%±11.3	57%
Body	13%	60%	62%	59.1%±15.2	0% ▼
T	30%	63%	67%	56.5%±11.7	43% ▲

Optimal v Raphael Collignon: +0.2±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Raphael Collignon serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Raphael wins	v Marc	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	72%	70%	69.0%±10.0	55% ▲
Body	12%	67%	61%	64.8%±14.1	0% ▼
T	46%	72%	73%	70.6%±10.2	45% ▼

Optimal v Marc Polmans: +0.4±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Raphael wins	v Marc	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	74%	70%	71.2%±10.7	51% ▲
Body	10%	59%	57%	52.9%±16.4	0% ▼
T	52%	72%	65%	64.9%±11.2	49% ▼

Optimal v Marc Polmans: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Marc Polmans returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Raphael	Value
FH through the middle	44%	+4.3	+2.1	+3.1	+9.4±3.0
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.5	+1.6	−2.9	+4.2±4.2
FH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	+0.2	+0.7	−3.4±2.1
FH down the line	10%	+1.7	+1.3	+6.0	+9.0±4.0
FH slice down the line	8%	−4.3	+2.0	−1.2	−3.5±2.4

Lean FH through the middle: +4.1±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (108 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Raphael	Value
BH through the middle	43%	+6.4	+2.0	+2.3	+10.7±2.9
BH crosscourt	26%	+8.8	+1.6	+1.6	+12.0±3.5
BH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	+2.0	−0.8	−3.0±2.0
BH slice crosscourt	13%	+0.5	+0.4	+1.1	+2.1±2.4
BH slice down the line	4%	−8.4	−0.1	±0.0	−8.5±1.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.9±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (120 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Raphael	Value
BH through the middle	55%	−2.9	+0.7	+0.7	−1.4±2.6
BH crosscourt	45%	+1.0	+0.1	−2.8	−1.7±3.1

Lean BH through the middle: +0.1±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (56 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Raphael Collignon returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marc	Value
FH through the middle	61%	+4.3	+1.9	−0.1	+6.1±3.0
FH crosscourt	25%	+5.5	+0.9	−0.3	+6.1±4.4
FH down the line	14%	+1.7	−0.3	+1.8	+3.2±4.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +0.4±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (150 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marc	Value
BH through the middle	43%	+6.4	+1.4	+1.7	+9.5±2.8
BH crosscourt	30%	+8.8	+3.3	+0.2	+12.3±3.6
BH slice crosscourt	9%	+0.5	−1.2	−2.1	−2.7±2.1
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	+0.1	−1.6	−5.7±2.0
BH slice down the line	5%	−8.4	+0.7	±0.0	−7.7±1.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.5±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (122 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marc	Value
BH through the middle	49%	−2.9	+1.4	−0.1	−1.6±2.6
BH crosscourt	35%	+1.0	+0.2	−2.8	−1.7±3.2
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	+0.6	−0.5	−0.1±3.3
FH through the middle	8%	−2.9	+0.3	+0.3	−2.2±2.0

Lean BH through the middle: −0.1±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (65 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Marc Polmans

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+5.1±3.9	+0.3	+4.8
FH to the middle · return	+4.7±2.7	+2.5	+2.2
BH to their forehand · rally	+4.6±4.5	+2.9	+1.7
FH to the middle · rally	+4.5±2.3	+1.8	+2.7
BH to the middle · rally	+4.5±2.1	+2.1	+2.4
BH to the middle · return	+3.5±2.6	+1.3	+2.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.7±2.5	+0.1	−0.8
FH to their backhand · rally	−0.3±3.1	−2.1	+1.8
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+0.4±4.2	+0.5	−0.1
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.4±3.0	+0.7	+1.7
BH to the middle · return	+3.5±2.6	+1.3	+2.2

Raphael Collignon

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · rally	+4.6±2.0	+2.5	+2.1
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.8±4.5	+0.6	+3.2
BH to the middle · return	+3.7±2.6	+1.9	+1.9
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.5±3.8	+2.6	+1.0
FH to the middle · rally	+3.3±2.3	+2.8	+0.4
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.9±2.3	+1.0	+1.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−1.4±3.4	+0.7	−2.2
FH to their forehand · rally	+0.6±3.0	+0.5	+0.1
BH to their backhand · return	+1.2±3.3	+2.6	−1.4
FH to the middle · return	+1.3±2.7	+0.9	+0.4
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.4±4.2	+1.0	+1.5

Against Raphael Collignon-like opponents

Marc Polmans v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.9%	40.2%