Game plan

Marketa Vondrousova v Olga Danilovic

Every number combines what Marketa Vondrousova does well with what Olga Danilovic allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Marketa Vondrousova wins, best of 3 83%90%: 65%–94% · best of 5: 88%

Serve points won 59.8% / 52.6% Marketa / Olga · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 84%serve 59.8% / 52.4%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Marketa Vondrousova's record against Olga Danilovic's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −1.1 on serve, −6.6 on return vs expectation (143 points); head-to-head: +0.5 on serve, +1.7 on return vs expectation (274 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Marketa	Olga
Direction choice	−0.04 ±0.07 better than 47%	−0.03 ±0.07 better than 49%
Shot selection	−0.68 ±0.17 better than 7%	+0.44 ±0.13 better than 92%
Execution	+0.63 ±0.43 better than 83%	−1.00 ±0.59 better than 18%
Points left on the table	2.99 ±0.12 lower than 11%	2.96 ±0.16 lower than 12%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Marketa Vondrousova +1.42, Olga Danilovic −1.34. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Marketa Vondrousova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Marketa wins	v Olga	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	22%	68%	66%	67.9%±6.9	37% ▲
Body	21%	61%	65%	67.6%±7.8	6% ▼
T	57%	63%	72%	67.2%±6.6	57%

Optimal v Olga Danilovic: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Marketa wins	v Olga	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	65%	72%	72.1%±5.6	51%
Body	17%	58%	51%	53.3%±9.2	2% ▼
T	32%	69%	71%	74.6%±6.2	47% ▲

Optimal v Olga Danilovic: +1.3±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Olga Danilovic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Olga wins	v Marketa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	26%	64%	61%	59.3%±7.1	41% ▲
Body	29%	54%	59%	55.4%±7.4	14% ▼
T	45%	64%	65%	61.5%±6.3	45%

Optimal v Marketa Vondrousova: +0.2±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Olga wins	v Marketa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	58%	61%	64%	59.4%±6.0	58%
Body	18%	57%	56%	56.4%±8.4	3% ▼
T	23%	73%	63%	71.2%±7.5	39% ▲

Optimal v Marketa Vondrousova: +0.9±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +9.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Marketa Vondrousova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Olga	Value
FH slice through the middle	52%	−6.7	+2.4	+1.3	−3.1±2.2
FH slice crosscourt	21%	−6.6	+3.7	+0.5	−2.4±2.4
FH through the middle	10%	+4.2	−0.9	−2.8	+0.4±2.9
FH slice down the line	8%	−10.5	−2.1	+1.1	−11.5±3.2
FH crosscourt	5%	+5.3	−1.3	−1.6	+2.4±4.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.2±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (532 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Olga	Value
BH through the middle	52%	+6.0	+1.3	+0.2	+7.5±1.9
BH crosscourt	19%	+7.7	+0.3	−3.8	+4.3±3.2
BH slice through the middle	13%	−6.2	+0.7	−0.3	−5.8±2.5
BH down the line	11%	+2.2	+2.0	+1.4	+5.5±4.2
BH slice down the line	3%	−12.5	+1.2	+0.3	−10.9±3.4

Lean BH through the middle: +3.4±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (740 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Olga	Value
FH through the middle	41%	−3.2	−0.7	−1.7	−5.5±2.8
FH crosscourt	35%	+0.5	+0.6	−4.9	−3.7±4.4
FH down the line	18%	−0.6	+1.6	+1.6	+2.6±4.9
FH slice through the middle	6%	−15.2	−1.1	+0.6	−15.7±1.7

Lean FH down the line: +6.7±4.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (142 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Olga	Value
BH through the middle	50%	−2.6	+2.6	+0.3	+0.3±2.4
BH crosscourt	36%	+1.5	+0.5	−1.0	+1.0±3.4
BH down the line	13%	−0.5	−1.8	−2.4	−4.7±5.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.1±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (351 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Olga Danilovic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marketa	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.2	+0.6	−2.2	+2.6±2.6
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.3	+2.3	−5.7	+2.0±4.3
FH down the line	14%	+1.5	−3.6	+1.9	−0.1±4.7
FH slice through the middle	8%	−6.7	−1.6	+1.0	−7.3±2.5
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−6.6	−2.0	−0.9	−9.6±2.4

Lean FH through the middle: +2.3±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (304 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marketa	Value
BH through the middle	39%	+6.0	−1.7	+1.3	+5.6±2.1
BH crosscourt	25%	+7.7	−1.6	−2.5	+3.6±3.2
BH down the line	16%	+2.2	−1.3	−1.7	−0.8±4.3
BH slice through the middle	10%	−6.2	−2.3	+1.1	−7.4±2.5
BH slice crosscourt	7%	−4.2	−1.4	−0.5	−6.1±3.0

Lean BH through the middle: +4.1±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (485 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marketa	Value
FH crosscourt	42%	+0.5	−0.2	−5.3	−5.0±4.4
FH through the middle	38%	−3.2	−0.5	+1.6	−2.1±2.8
FH down the line	20%	−0.6	−2.5	−1.0	−4.1±4.9

Lean FH through the middle: +1.6±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (74 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marketa	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.6	+0.7	−0.2	−2.1±2.2
BH crosscourt	36%	+1.5	+0.9	+0.9	+3.3±3.5
BH down the line	9%	−0.5	−6.6	+1.6	−5.5±4.7
FH inside-in	4%	+0.7	+0.9	−5.3	−3.6±4.3
FH through the middle	3%	−2.7	+0.7	+1.6	−0.5±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.8±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (294 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.