RallyIQ

WTA · Left-handed · 9 charted matches · 2015–2021

Misaki Doi

Archetype: Ad-court slider · Avoids the wide serve

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 54.8% ±3.4 raw 52.5% · tour 56.3% · 726 points
Return points won 44.7% ±3.5 raw 43.2% · tour 43.7% · 666 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.10 ±0.11 better than 36% of WTA · raw −0.09
Shot selection +0.11 ±0.24 better than 56% of WTA · raw +0.13
Execution −0.93 ±0.51 better than 19% of WTA · raw −0.79
Points left on the table 2.84 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 21% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,689 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Misaki Doi goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 244 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 32% 56.2%±8.3 52.7%
FH down the line 28% 57.8%±8.6 52.2%
FH through the middle 17% 38.0%±10.2 45.8%
BH crosscourt 11% 46.1%±12.1 50.9%
BH through the middle 7% 37.5%±12.9 46.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 239 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 41% 39.9%±7.4 47.6%
BH through the middle 30% 40.3%±8.5 43.3%
BH down the line 10% 42.7%±12.4 46.8%
BH slice through the middle 7% 35.8%±13.1 34.4%
BH slice crosscourt 5% 33.6%±13.5 40.4%
FH inside-out 5% 46.8%±14.7 52.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 187 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 56% 41.9%±7.3 46.7%
FH through the middle 22% 39.8%±10.3 41.3%
FH down the line 19% 43.6%±11.0 44.9%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 127 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 39% 49.7%±9.8 54.0%
FH down the line 28% 54.7%±10.9 53.3%
FH through the middle 14% 42.4%±13.2 45.5%
BH crosscourt 9% 54.7%±14.5 52.5%
BH through the middle 9% 39.6%±14.4 46.3%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −1 How much less varied Misaki Doi's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 99 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 23% 25% 69% / 66%
Body 36% 35% 51% / 57%
T 42% 40% 62% / 68%

355 normal · 20 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 42% 35% 61% / 66%
Body 36% 41% 53% / 56%
T 22% 24% 57% / 64%

272 normal · 79 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide23% 56.1%±7.6 n=85 38% ▲
Body36% 53.6%±6.4 n=134 21% ▼
T42% 51.4%±6.0 n=156 41%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.64).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide41% 53.7%±6.2 n=143 51% ▲
Body37% 49.3%±6.5 n=130 22% ▼
T22% 51.5%±7.9 n=78 27% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.66).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.74 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +2.5±4.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (221 repeats, 487 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 42 50% +6.3±9.7
1stAd courtT 87 35% −0.8±7.2
1stAd courtWide 55 29% −5.8±8.1
1stDeuce courtBody 40 40% −2.9±9.6
1stDeuce courtT 61 34% +1.5±8.1
1stDeuce courtWide 109 35% +1.4±6.7
2ndAd courtBody 59 52% −2.8±8.7
2ndAd courtT 51 56% +1.2±9.1
2ndAd courtWide 24 52% −1.6±11.2
2ndDeuce courtBody 46 61% +6.5±9.2
2ndDeuce courtT 17 57% +1.0±11.9
2ndDeuce courtWide 74 48% −5.6±8.1

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Misaki Doi's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 4.7% · won 60% · +4.7±10.8 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 5.4% · won 58% · +2.3±10.5 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 5.6% · won 52% · −3.5±10.5 vs own baseline
  4. Body serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 6.2% · won 51% · −4.4±10.2 vs own baseline
  5. Body serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 3.6% · won 49% · −6.1±11.7 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 12.5% · won 56% · +9.5±9.9 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 8.0% · won 53% · +6.2±11.4 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 9.4% · won 51% · +4.3±10.9 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt, deep used 6.9% · won 50% · +3.4±11.8 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 8.7% · won 47% · +0.7±11.1 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 10.2% · won 50% · +5.9±9.1 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 5.1% · won 49% · +4.3±11.2 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 4.5% · won 48% · +3.2±11.6 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 12.2% · won 46% · +1.8±8.5 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 6.8% · won 46% · +1.2±10.4 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Misaki Doi wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH down the line → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 55% · +10.1±12.4 vs own baseline · +14.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. FH down the line → FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.8% · won 52% · +7.2±11.0 vs own baseline · +9.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Elina Svitolina (5/9), Harriet Dart (5/8)
  3. FH crosscourt → BH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 49% · +4.5±12.0 vs own baseline · +5.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Nao Hibino (4/7), Harriet Dart (6/8)
  4. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.5% · won 48% · +3.1±10.0 vs own baseline · +1.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Kiki Bertens (3/9), Nao Hibino (7/14)
  5. T serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 49% · +4.4±12.6 vs own baseline · +2.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. BH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 49% · +4.4±12.6 vs own baseline · +0.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally+0.3208
FH to their backhand · rally−0.1326
FH to their backhand · serve +1−0.2155
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.3143
Body 1st serve · ad court−0.4130

Most exposed to

BH to their forehand · rally−2.6162
FH to their forehand · rally−2.1151
BH to the middle · return−1.1200
FH to their backhand · rally−0.9230
T 1st serve · ad court+0.3137

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Sara Sorribes Tormo, Alexandra Eala, Kayla Day, Caroline Wozniacki, Alize Cornet

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Forehand share64%
Run-around forehands15%
Unforced errors / shot12.4%
T serves · deuce42%
Deep returns35%
Point-ending shots25.3%
Avg rally length4.2
Backhand slice16%
Wide serves · ad41%
Chipped returns10%
Serve & volley0%
Points at net6%
FH down the line27%
1st serve in61%
Through the middle26%
Drop shots / shot0.6%
T serves · ad22%
BH down the line11%
Wide serves · deuce23%

Plays most like

  1. Olga Danilovic 2019–2026 plan v
  2. Xiyu Wang 2019–2025 plan v
  3. Beatriz Haddad Maia 2019–2025 plan v
  4. Lulu Sun 2022–2025 plan v
  5. Marta Kostyuk 2018–2026 plan v
  6. Diana Shnaider 2022–2026 plan v
  7. Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 2020–2025 plan v
  8. Jasmine Paolini 2016–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Monica Seles 1990–2003
  2. Lindsay Davenport 1995–2006
  3. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario 1988–2001

Charted matches