Game plan

Marta Kostyuk v Alina Korneeva

Every number combines what Marta Kostyuk does well with what Alina Korneeva allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Marta Kostyuk wins, best of 3 50%90%: 18%–82% · best of 5: 50%

Serve points won 57.5% / 57.5% Marta / Alina · tour 58.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 49%serve 57.6% / 57.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Marta Kostyuk's record against Alina Korneeva's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −1.5 on serve, +4.4 on return vs expectation (291 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Marta	Alina
Direction choice	−0.06 ±0.05 better than 43%	−0.01 ±0.10 better than 51%
Shot selection	+0.13 ±0.09 better than 60%	+0.25 ±0.25 better than 73%
Execution	−0.34 ±0.29 better than 41%	+0.66 ±0.76 better than 84%
Points left on the table	2.69 ±0.07 lower than 36%	2.48 ±0.14 lower than 67%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Marta Kostyuk +0.71, Alina Korneeva −0.42. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Marta Kostyuk serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Marta wins	v Alina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	36%	70%	60%	65.2%±6.7	51% ▲
Body	24%	60%	52%	55.0%±8.5	9% ▼
T	40%	72%	64%	67.9%±8.5	40%

Optimal v Alina Korneeva: +0.9±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Marta wins	v Alina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	73%	60%	67.9%±7.3	62% ▲
Body	26%	58%	51%	52.9%±8.6	11% ▼
T	27%	64%	51%	50.3%±8.7	27%

Optimal v Alina Korneeva: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +8.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Alina Korneeva serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alina wins	v Marta	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	36%	66%	63%	63.7%±7.6	45% ▲
Body	36%	54%	57%	53.5%±8.3	21% ▼
T	29%	66%	68%	66.3%±8.6	34% ▲

Optimal v Marta Kostyuk: +0.7±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alina wins	v Marta	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	59%	64%	57.4%±7.6	49%
Body	26%	62%	58%	63.5%±9.1	10% ▼
T	26%	70%	61%	66.5%±9.0	41% ▲

Optimal v Marta Kostyuk: +0.3±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Marta Kostyuk returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alina	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.2	+0.6	+0.2	+5.0±2.5
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.3	+0.5	+1.2	+7.0±3.8
FH slice through the middle	17%	−6.7	+1.4	+0.1	−5.2±2.0
FH down the line	12%	+1.5	+4.8	+0.7	+7.0±4.4
FH slice crosscourt	8%	−6.6	+0.9	+0.4	−5.3±2.4

Lean FH down the line: +4.3±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1346 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alina	Value
BH through the middle	52%	+6.0	−0.2	+1.6	+7.4±2.2
BH crosscourt	29%	+7.7	−2.1	−0.2	+5.3±3.2
BH down the line	10%	+2.2	−1.1	+2.0	+3.0±4.6
BH slice through the middle	4%	−6.2	−0.1	±0.0	−6.3±2.2
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.2	−0.7	±0.0	−4.9±2.1

Lean BH through the middle: +2.3±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (969 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alina	Value
FH through the middle	41%	−3.2	+1.5	+2.4	+0.7±2.9
FH crosscourt	28%	+0.5	−1.0	+1.2	+0.7±4.3
FH down the line	25%	−0.6	+0.7	+1.8	+1.9±5.2
FH slice through the middle	4%	−15.2	+0.6	±0.0	−14.6±1.5
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−14.9	+0.6	±0.0	−14.3±1.5

Lean FH down the line: +1.9±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (362 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alina	Value
BH through the middle	46%	−2.6	−2.6	+1.5	−3.6±2.5
BH crosscourt	30%	+1.5	−1.1	+2.5	+2.9±3.4
BH down the line	19%	−0.5	+1.0	−1.8	−1.4±5.0
FH inside-out	2%	+1.4	±0.0	+1.8	+3.1±3.8
FH through the middle	1%	−2.7	−0.2	+2.4	−0.5±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.9±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (471 returns charted)

Alina Korneeva returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marta	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.2	+2.6	+0.7	+7.4±2.5
FH crosscourt	33%	+5.3	+1.8	−3.9	+3.2±3.8
FH slice through the middle	10%	−6.7	+0.8	−0.7	−6.6±2.4
FH down the line	9%	+1.5	+2.4	−2.7	+1.1±3.9
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−6.6	+0.7	−3.3	−9.2±2.6

Lean FH through the middle: +4.4±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (206 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marta	Value
BH through the middle	61%	+6.0	+2.3	−0.2	+8.2±2.3
BH crosscourt	24%	+7.7	+1.9	−1.5	+8.2±3.1
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	+0.5	−2.8	−0.1±3.8
BH slice through the middle	4%	−6.2	−0.8	−2.3	−9.3±1.9

Lean BH through the middle: +1.7±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (127 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marta	Value
FH crosscourt	46%	+0.5	+0.3	−2.3	−1.5±3.6
FH through the middle	30%	−3.2	+0.3	+0.3	−2.5±2.3
FH down the line	24%	−0.6	+3.7	−2.4	+0.8±4.1

Lean FH crosscourt: −0.2±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (50 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marta	Value
BH crosscourt	44%	+1.5	−0.8	−2.8	−2.1±3.2
BH through the middle	37%	−2.6	+0.2	−0.1	−2.5±2.3
BH down the line	19%	−0.5	−4.1	−1.3	−5.9±4.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.9±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (52 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Marta Kostyuk

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return +1	+5.5±4.6	+2.0	+3.5
BH to the middle · return +1	+4.5±3.0	+1.5	+3.0
FH to the middle · rally	+4.4±2.7	+1.1	+3.2
FH to their backhand · return	+3.6±5.0	+2.1	+1.6
BH to their backhand · rally	+3.4±3.6	+3.5	−0.2
FH to the middle · serve +1	+2.3±3.0	+1.4	+1.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return +1	−5.9±4.1	−5.3	−0.6
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−4.5±4.1	−5.1	+0.6
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−4.4±4.6	−2.1	−2.3
BH to their forehand · return	−2.4±5.1	−3.1	+0.7
BH to their backhand · return	−1.4±4.1	−3.1	+1.6

Alina Korneeva

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.7±3.4	+1.2	+2.6
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.4±4.6	+2.3	+1.1
BH to their backhand · return +1	+2.9±4.0	+0.9	+2.0
FH to the middle · serve +1	+2.5±3.1	+2.2	+0.3
FH to the middle · return	+2.2±3.0	+2.5	−0.3
BH to the middle · return +1	+2.0±2.9	+0.9	+1.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−6.3±4.9	−1.1	−5.2
BH to their forehand · return	−5.8±5.2	−1.6	−4.2
BH to their backhand · return	−3.8±4.0	+0.5	−4.2
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.2±4.1	−4.2	+1.0
FH to their backhand · return +1	−2.8±4.9	−0.6	−2.2

Against Alina Korneeva-like opponents

Marta Kostyuk v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.2%	44.7%
Players most similar to Alina Korneeva	2	58.8%	49.6%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Anna Blinkova, Leylah Fernandez, Magda Linette, Emma Navarro, Jaqueline Cristian, Sara Bejlek, Nao Hibino, Victoria Azarenka, Flavia Pennetta. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.