Game plan

Martina Navratilova v Taylor Townsend

Every number combines what Martina Navratilova does well with what Taylor Townsend allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Martina Navratilova wins, best of 3 53%90%: 21%–83% · best of 5: 54%

Serve points won 59.1% / 58.5% Martina / Taylor · tour 58.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 53%serve 59.1% / 58.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Martina Navratilova's record against Taylor Townsend's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Martina	Taylor
Direction choice	+0.05 ±0.09 better than 63%	+0.03 ±0.07 better than 60%
Shot selection	+0.74 ±0.23 better than 98%	+0.29 ±0.38 better than 78%
Execution	−0.47 ±0.49 better than 35%	−0.66 ±0.65 better than 28%
Points left on the table	4.11 ±0.23 lower than 0%	3.14 ±0.14 lower than 6%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Martina Navratilova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Martina wins	v Taylor	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	65%	67%	66.4%±6.6	38%
Body	15%	61%	54%	57.7%±9.5	0% ▼
T	47%	66%	73%	71.1%±7.0	62% ▲

Optimal v Taylor Townsend: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Martina wins	v Taylor	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	59%	64%	70%	68.0%±7.0	55% ▼
Body	12%	58%	64%	66.4%±9.8	0% ▼
T	29%	67%	64%	66.1%±7.2	45% ▲

Optimal v Taylor Townsend: +0.5±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Taylor Townsend serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Taylor wins	v Martina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	36%	64%	61%	59.5%±6.9	36%
Body	24%	55%	58%	54.9%±9.0	8% ▼
T	41%	65%	67%	64.3%±7.7	56% ▲

Optimal v Martina Navratilova: +0.5±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Taylor wins	v Martina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	69%	57%	60.6%±7.1	43%
Body	16%	58%	62%	64.6%±9.1	2% ▼
T	40%	62%	67%	64.1%±7.4	55% ▲

Optimal v Martina Navratilova: +0.3±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Martina Navratilova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Taylor	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.2	−2.8	−1.3	+0.1±2.7
FH crosscourt	40%	+5.3	+2.1	+2.3	+9.7±4.0
FH down the line	14%	+1.5	+0.1	±0.0	+1.7±4.7
BH slice through the middle	3%	−4.8	+1.0	−1.2	−5.0±2.2
FH slice through the middle	1%	−6.7	+0.5	+0.6	−5.6±2.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.8±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (420 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Taylor	Value
BH slice through the middle	43%	−6.2	+7.2	−1.2	−0.2±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	24%	−4.2	+6.2	−0.9	+1.2±2.3
BH slice down the line	13%	−12.5	+8.8	+0.2	−3.4±3.1
BH through the middle	10%	+6.0	−0.9	−1.1	+4.1±2.7
BH crosscourt	4%	+7.7	−2.5	−0.2	+5.0±3.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.5±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (976 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Taylor	Value
FH crosscourt	40%	+0.5	+1.6	+2.6	+4.7±4.4
FH down the line	31%	−0.6	−4.6	+0.8	−4.3±5.3
FH through the middle	27%	−3.2	−2.6	+0.4	−5.4±3.0
FH slice down the line	3%	−14.1	+1.3	±0.0	−12.7±1.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.9±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (193 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Taylor	Value
BH slice through the middle	35%	−11.7	+5.6	±0.0	−6.1±1.6
BH slice down the line	20%	−10.6	+6.9	±0.0	−3.6±3.1
BH slice crosscourt	15%	−7.5	+2.7	±0.0	−4.8±2.1
BH down the line	6%	−0.5	+3.2	−0.2	+2.5±4.9
FH inside-in	6%	+0.7	+4.2	+2.6	+7.6±4.5

Lean FH inside-in: +10.6±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (298 returns charted)

Taylor Townsend returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Martina	Value
FH through the middle	31%	+4.2	−1.2	−3.2	−0.2±2.8
FH slice through the middle	25%	−6.7	−0.2	+0.9	−6.0±2.6
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.3	+1.9	−1.7	+5.5±4.2
FH slice crosscourt	16%	−6.6	+2.4	−1.6	−5.9±2.5
FH down the line	8%	+1.5	−2.5	+3.2	+2.3±4.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.8±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (190 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Martina	Value
BH through the middle	30%	+6.0	−0.2	−4.4	+1.4±2.5
BH slice through the middle	21%	−6.2	+2.4	−2.0	−5.8±2.3
BH crosscourt	20%	+7.7	−3.2	−2.3	+2.2±3.4
BH down the line	14%	+2.2	±0.0	+3.1	+5.3±4.6
BH slice crosscourt	9%	−4.2	+0.1	+6.9	+2.8±2.8

Lean BH down the line: +4.6±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (385 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Martina	Value
FH crosscourt	49%	+0.5	+2.0	+2.0	+4.6±4.1
FH through the middle	34%	−3.2	−0.1	+1.0	−2.3±2.6
FH down the line	17%	−0.6	−1.2	+2.2	+0.5±4.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.0±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (41 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Martina	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.6	−0.4	+1.3	−1.7±2.6
BH crosscourt	37%	+1.5	−3.4	+0.8	−1.1±3.7
BH down the line	11%	−0.5	+0.2	+5.5	+5.2±4.9
FH through the middle	6%	−2.7	−1.0	+1.0	−2.6±2.1

Lean BH down the line: +6.0±4.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (150 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Martina Navratilova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	+9.9±5.5	+5.8	+4.2
FH to their backhand · return	+9.4±5.6	+7.9	+1.5
BH to their forehand · return +1	+5.6±6.6	+4.5	+1.2
FH to the middle · serve +1	+3.9±3.6	+3.0	+0.9
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.5±5.0	+2.2	+0.4
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.4±6.0	+2.7	−0.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−8.0±5.2	−4.8	−3.2
BH to the middle · rally	−6.2±3.6	−6.2	±0.0
BH to their backhand · rally	−5.9±5.1	−7.8	+1.8
FH to the middle · return	−4.7±3.7	−2.7	−2.0
FH to the middle · rally	−2.8±3.7	−1.2	−1.7

Taylor Townsend

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return	+11.8±5.5	+4.7	+7.1
BH to their forehand · return	+7.1±6.0	−0.9	+7.9
BH to their forehand · rally	+4.6±5.3	+0.3	+4.2
BH to their forehand · return +1	+4.1±5.5	+1.7	+2.5
FH to their backhand · return +1	+2.4±5.8	−1.9	+4.3
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.1±5.1	+0.3	+1.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return +1	−8.2±5.5	−6.5	−1.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−7.5±5.4	−6.0	−1.4
BH to the middle · return +1	−5.2±3.3	−2.5	−2.7
BH to their backhand · return	−4.6±4.3	−2.3	−2.3
FH to the middle · return	−4.3±3.4	−2.2	−2.0

Against Taylor Townsend-like opponents

Martina Navratilova v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.0%	41.5%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Karolina Muchova, Bianca Andreescu, Barbora Krejcikova, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Olivia Gadecki, Xiyu Wang, Caroline Garcia, Barbora Strycova, Anna Lena Friedsam, Johanna Konta. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.