Game plan

Maxime Cressy v Paul Jubb

Every number combines what Maxime Cressy does well with what Paul Jubb allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Maxime Cressy wins, best of 3 37%90%: 10%–74% · best of 5: 34%

Serve points won 64.3% / 66.9% Maxime / Paul · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 37%serve 64.3% / 66.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Maxime Cressy's record against Paul Jubb's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Maxime	Paul
Direction choice	+0.07 ±0.13 better than 77%	−0.20 ±0.18 better than 13%
Shot selection	+1.15 ±0.15 better than 99%	+0.01 ±0.18 better than 53%
Execution	−1.85 ±0.64 better than 5%	−1.15 ±0.78 better than 21%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Maxime Cressy serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Maxime wins	v Paul	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	81%	68%	77.6%±6.5	67% ▲
Body	5%	68%	67%	72.1%±13.6	0% ▼
T	40%	81%	73%	79.8%±6.6	33% ▼

Optimal v Paul Jubb: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Maxime wins	v Paul	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	64%	78%	73%	77.9%±6.4	77% ▲
Body	5%	61%	56%	54.0%±16.5	0% ▼
T	30%	78%	68%	74.1%±8.4	23% ▼

Optimal v Paul Jubb: +0.4±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Paul Jubb serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Paul wins	v Maxime	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	73%	80%	80.3%±6.8	52% ▲
Body	29%	57%	67%	60.4%±10.4	15% ▼
T	33%	77%	77%	78.9%±7.8	33%

Optimal v Maxime Cressy: +1.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +6.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Paul wins	v Maxime	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	82%	80%	86.7%±5.8	51% ▲
Body	27%	60%	68%	64.4%±10.9	14% ▼
T	35%	69%	78%	76.0%±7.8	35%

Optimal v Maxime Cressy: +1.0±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +9.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Maxime Cressy returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Paul	Value
FH through the middle	45%	+4.3	±0.0	+1.2	+5.5±2.7
FH crosscourt	34%	+5.5	−1.7	−3.0	+0.8±3.8
FH down the line	12%	+1.7	−1.3	−2.9	−2.5±4.5
FH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	−1.0	−0.1	−5.3±2.1
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.3	+0.1	±0.0	−4.2±1.5

Lean FH through the middle: +3.5±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (584 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Paul	Value
BH through the middle	49%	+6.4	+0.5	−1.3	+5.6±2.6
BH crosscourt	28%	+8.8	−1.8	−1.7	+5.3±3.4
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+2.9	−0.5	+6.7±4.1
BH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	−1.7	−1.0	−6.9±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	3%	+0.5	−2.6	+0.8	−1.3±2.7

Lean BH down the line: +2.4±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (471 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Paul	Value
FH crosscourt	37%	−0.2	−5.7	−2.1	−8.1±4.1
FH through the middle	29%	−3.5	+1.6	+1.9	±0.0±2.9
FH slice through the middle	19%	−12.7	+0.3	±0.0	−12.3±1.6
FH slice down the line	9%	−9.4	−0.8	±0.0	−10.3±1.7
FH down the line	7%	−1.8	+0.5	−1.7	−2.9±4.0

Lean FH through the middle: +6.4±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (129 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Paul	Value
BH through the middle	46%	−2.9	−8.6	+1.7	−9.7±2.5
BH crosscourt	32%	+1.0	−1.0	−3.1	−3.1±3.1
BH down the line	15%	−0.2	−3.8	−2.6	−6.6±4.6
BH slice through the middle	5%	−11.3	−0.4	−1.1	−12.8±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.0	+0.4	±0.0	−3.6±1.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.1±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (278 returns charted)

Paul Jubb returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maxime	Value
FH through the middle	57%	+4.3	+0.5	−1.2	+3.5±2.7
FH down the line	24%	+1.7	+1.1	−2.0	+0.8±4.3
FH crosscourt	13%	+5.5	+1.0	−2.7	+3.8±4.0
FH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	+0.5	−1.7	−5.4±2.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.5±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (113 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maxime	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	+1.3	−1.4	+6.3±2.5
BH crosscourt	22%	+8.8	−2.4	+1.1	+7.5±3.4
BH down the line	16%	+4.2	+0.1	+1.7	+6.0±4.4
BH slice through the middle	8%	−4.2	−0.4	−4.6	−9.2±2.2
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	±0.0	+0.5	+1.0±2.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.4±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (135 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maxime	Value
BH through the middle	51%	−2.9	−2.0	−3.8	−8.6±2.4
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.0	−2.2	−3.4	−4.6±3.2
BH down the line	15%	−0.2	−2.4	−3.8	−6.5±4.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.3±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (71 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Maxime Cressy

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · rally	−1.1±3.3	−0.8	−0.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.4±5.2	−3.3	+0.8
FH to the middle · return	−3.6±3.5	−3.4	−0.2
FH to their backhand · return	−4.2±4.7	±0.0	−4.2
FH to their backhand · rally	−5.6±4.3	−1.7	−3.9
BH to the middle · return	−8.2±3.3	−7.1	−1.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	−8.2±3.3	−7.1	−1.1
FH to their backhand · rally	−5.6±4.3	−1.7	−3.9
FH to their backhand · return	−4.2±4.7	±0.0	−4.2
FH to the middle · return	−3.6±3.5	−3.4	−0.2
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.4±5.2	−3.3	+0.8

Paul Jubb

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+6.8±5.1	+6.0	+0.8
BH to their forehand · rally	+4.4±5.1	−0.3	+4.8
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.2±4.8	−0.4	+2.7
FH to the middle · return	+1.8±3.5	+1.1	+0.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+1.3±5.5	−0.7	+2.0
FH to the middle · rally	+0.8±2.9	+0.5	+0.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return	−5.6±4.4	−4.3	−1.4
BH to the middle · return	−2.8±3.4	−0.3	−2.5
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.2±4.5	−1.5	−0.7
BH to the middle · rally	−1.9±2.7	−0.6	−1.3
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.8±3.4	−0.7	−0.1

Against Paul Jubb-like opponents

Maxime Cressy v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	68.8%	29.1%