Game plan

Milos Raonic v Magnus Larsson

Every number combines what Milos Raonic does well with what Magnus Larsson allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Milos Raonic wins, best of 3 66%90%: 46%–82% · best of 5: 70%

Serve points won 72.1% / 68.5% Milos / Magnus · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 66%serve 72.1% / 68.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Milos Raonic's record against Magnus Larsson's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Milos	Magnus
Direction choice	+0.11 ±0.05 better than 82%	+0.15 ±0.23 better than 88%
Shot selection	+0.70 ±0.10 better than 97%	−0.83 ±0.32 better than 4%
Execution	−0.74 ±0.34 better than 35%	+0.03 ±1.45 better than 70%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Milos Raonic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Milos wins	v Magnus	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	77%	79%	82.7%±5.6	43% ▼
Body	7%	74%	66%	76.1%±10.1	0% ▼
T	44%	85%	83%	89.8%±4.0	57% ▲

Optimal v Magnus Larsson: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Milos wins	v Magnus	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	84%	77%	86.3%±4.6	50% ▼
Body	7%	67%	63%	67.9%±12.5	0% ▼
T	37%	80%	79%	85.2%±5.1	50% ▲

Optimal v Magnus Larsson: +1.0±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +1.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Magnus Larsson serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Magnus wins	v Milos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	71%	76%	74.4%±7.0	37% ▼
Body	10%	70%	69%	74.3%±9.9	0% ▼
T	50%	79%	78%	82.0%±5.7	63% ▲

Optimal v Milos Raonic: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Magnus wins	v Milos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	80%	78%	84.5%±5.3	62% ▲
Body	8%	61%	66%	64.1%±12.4	0% ▼
T	42%	73%	76%	76.9%±6.9	38% ▼

Optimal v Milos Raonic: +1.0±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +4.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Milos Raonic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Magnus	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.3	−0.8	−2.0	+1.4±2.5
FH crosscourt	27%	+5.5	−3.8	−1.2	+0.5±3.6
FH down the line	17%	+1.7	−2.5	+1.0	+0.1±3.7
FH slice through the middle	5%	−4.2	−1.8	+0.3	−5.7±2.1
FH slice crosscourt	1%	−4.3	−1.3	±0.0	−5.7±1.9

Lean FH through the middle: +1.0±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1484 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Magnus	Value
BH through the middle	39%	+6.4	−0.5	−3.1	+2.8±2.1
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	−2.9	+2.0	+7.9±2.8
BH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	−1.5	−1.2	−6.9±2.2
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	−0.9	−3.3	±0.0±3.5
BH slice crosscourt	7%	+0.5	−1.5	−2.5	−3.5±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.5±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1719 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Magnus	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.5	−0.4	+0.2	−3.6±2.5
FH crosscourt	32%	−0.2	+0.3	−2.1	−2.1±4.0
FH down the line	19%	−1.8	−1.0	+0.3	−2.6±4.4
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	+0.2	±0.0	−12.5±1.1
FH slice down the line	1%	−9.4	−0.6	±0.0	−10.0±1.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.1±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (383 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Magnus	Value
BH through the middle	38%	−2.9	−1.5	±0.0	−4.5±2.0
BH crosscourt	30%	+1.0	−3.3	+0.9	−1.3±2.7
BH down the line	10%	−0.2	+0.3	±0.0	+0.1±3.3
FH through the middle	8%	−2.9	+0.1	+0.2	−2.5±2.3
FH inside-in	4%	+0.6	−2.7	−2.1	−4.3±4.2

Lean BH down the line: +3.0±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1074 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Magnus Larsson returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Milos	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.3	−2.3	−1.3	+0.7±2.5
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.5	−3.5	−3.1	−1.1±3.9
FH down the line	19%	+1.7	−0.9	−1.5	−0.7±3.8
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.3	+0.1	+0.6	−3.6±2.4
FH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	−0.5	−0.8	−5.5±1.7

Lean FH through the middle: +1.6±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (123 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Milos	Value
BH crosscourt	28%	+8.8	±0.0	−1.8	+7.0±3.1
BH slice crosscourt	21%	+0.5	−0.7	−0.9	−1.0±2.7
BH through the middle	19%	+6.4	−0.8	−2.1	+3.5±2.3
BH slice through the middle	18%	−4.2	−1.7	−0.2	−6.1±2.0
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	−1.3	−4.6	−1.6±3.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.3±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (122 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Milos	Value
BH through the middle	27%	−2.9	−0.9	−0.4	−4.1±1.9
BH crosscourt	25%	+1.0	+0.3	−1.6	−0.3±2.4
BH down the line	21%	−0.2	+2.4	−2.8	−0.5±4.2
BH slice through the middle	14%	−11.3	−0.2	−1.1	−12.6±2.0
BH slice crosscourt	13%	−4.0	−0.7	−2.0	−6.7±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.7±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (63 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Milos Raonic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to the middle · return	−1.1±2.9	−1.6	+0.6
FH to the middle · return	−2.9±3.3	−0.7	−2.2
BH slice to their backhand · return	−3.1±3.6	−2.1	−1.1
BH to their backhand · rally	−5.7±3.7	−4.9	−0.8
FH to their backhand · rally	−6.8±4.0	−1.6	−5.2
FH to their forehand · rally	−9.1±4.4	−2.4	−6.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−9.1±4.4	−2.4	−6.8
FH to their backhand · rally	−6.8±4.0	−1.6	−5.2
BH to their backhand · rally	−5.7±3.7	−4.9	−0.8
BH slice to their backhand · return	−3.1±3.6	−2.1	−1.1
FH to the middle · return	−2.9±3.3	−0.7	−2.2

Magnus Larsson

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.7±4.2	+1.1	+0.6
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.5±4.1	+1.6	−0.2
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.1±4.5	−3.5	+1.4
BH to their backhand · return	−2.6±3.8	±0.0	−2.6
BH to their backhand · rally	−3.3±3.4	−2.6	−0.8
BH to the middle · return	−4.8±3.0	−2.1	−2.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	−5.1±3.3	−3.0	−2.1
BH to the middle · return	−4.8±3.0	−2.1	−2.7
BH to their backhand · rally	−3.3±3.4	−2.6	−0.8
BH to their backhand · return	−2.6±3.8	±0.0	−2.6
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.1±4.5	−3.5	+1.4

Against Magnus Larsson-like opponents

Milos Raonic v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	69.9%	31.3%