Game plan

Mirra Andreeva v Sara Sorribes Tormo

Every number combines what Mirra Andreeva does well with what Sara Sorribes Tormo allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Mirra Andreeva wins, best of 3 94%90%: 87%–98% · best of 5: 98%

Serve points won 58.7% / 46.9% Mirra / Sara · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 92%serve 57.9% / 47.4%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Mirra Andreeva's record against Sara Sorribes Tormo's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +3.0 on serve, +1.8 on return vs expectation (1095 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Mirra	Sara
Direction choice	+0.12 ±0.04 better than 75%	−0.48 ±0.10 better than 0%
Shot selection	−0.43 ±0.08 better than 15%	−0.84 ±0.19 better than 5%
Execution	+1.22 ±0.22 better than 95%	+2.10 ±0.36 better than 99%
Points left on the table	2.42 ±0.06 lower than 73%	3.12 ±0.13 lower than 7%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Mirra Andreeva +1.86, Sara Sorribes Tormo +2.30. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Mirra Andreeva serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Mirra wins	v Sara	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	69%	62%	65.5%±4.6	49% ▼
Body	13%	59%	51%	52.6%±5.9	0% ▼
T	36%	73%	60%	66.4%±5.1	51% ▲

Optimal v Sara Sorribes Tormo: +1.1±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Mirra wins	v Sara	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	33%	67%	60%	61.8%±5.1	48% ▲
Body	21%	61%	55%	59.9%±5.8	22%
T	45%	65%	57%	57.6%±5.5	30% ▼

Optimal v Sara Sorribes Tormo: +0.5±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Sara Sorribes Tormo serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Sara wins	v Mirra	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	61%	60%	54.4%±4.7	55% ▲
Body	41%	51%	56%	49.8%±5.4	26% ▼
T	15%	59%	61%	51.5%±7.5	19% ▲

Optimal v Mirra Andreeva: +0.2±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Sara wins	v Mirra	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	24%	58%	64%	55.7%±6.0	39% ▲
Body	52%	53%	47%	43.8%±5.4	37% ▼
T	24%	54%	62%	51.6%±6.1	24%

Optimal v Mirra Andreeva: +0.9±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +7.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Mirra Andreeva returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sara	Value
FH through the middle	34%	+4.2	+1.5	+1.5	+7.2±1.6
FH down the line	24%	+1.5	+3.1	+2.4	+7.0±3.1
FH slice through the middle	19%	−6.7	+0.1	+0.9	−5.7±2.0
FH slice crosscourt	11%	−6.6	+0.6	±0.0	−6.0±1.4
FH crosscourt	8%	+5.3	−3.2	+3.5	+5.6±3.5

Lean FH through the middle: +4.6±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (2589 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sara	Value
BH through the middle	46%	+6.0	+1.9	+1.6	+9.6±1.7
BH crosscourt	24%	+7.7	+0.2	+0.5	+8.4±2.5
BH down the line	14%	+2.2	+3.5	−0.6	+5.1±4.0
BH slice through the middle	7%	−6.2	−2.0	−0.1	−8.3±2.2
BH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.2	−2.7	+0.1	−6.8±2.8

Lean BH through the middle: +3.7±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1925 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sara	Value
FH through the middle	37%	−3.2	+1.0	+3.0	+0.7±2.4
FH down the line	34%	−0.6	±0.0	+5.1	+4.5±4.5
FH crosscourt	15%	+0.5	−5.4	+0.2	−4.7±4.1
BH through the middle	5%	−1.0	+0.5	+1.6	+1.1±2.4
BH inside-in	3%	+2.0	+0.6	+1.0	+3.5±3.8

Lean FH down the line: +4.0±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (743 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sara	Value
BH through the middle	37%	−2.6	+1.0	+1.6	±0.0±2.3
BH down the line	31%	−0.5	+0.8	+1.6	+1.9±4.5
BH crosscourt	25%	+1.5	−1.4	+1.0	+1.1±3.2
FH through the middle	3%	−2.7	−1.2	+3.0	−1.0±2.5
FH inside-in	2%	+0.7	+0.3	+0.2	+1.2±4.2

Lean BH down the line: +1.0±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1071 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Sara Sorribes Tormo returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mirra	Value
FH through the middle	55%	+4.2	+3.8	+0.1	+8.0±1.8
FH down the line	19%	+1.5	+2.0	−1.6	+1.9±3.8
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.3	+3.1	−1.9	+6.5±3.5
FH slice through the middle	8%	−6.7	+0.1	−0.9	−7.5±2.2
FH slice crosscourt	4%	−6.6	+0.1	−0.6	−7.2±2.5

Lean FH through the middle: +3.3±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (518 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mirra	Value
BH through the middle	49%	+6.0	+2.4	−0.6	+7.9±1.8
BH crosscourt	22%	+7.7	+4.0	−0.8	+10.9±2.8
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	+3.2	−0.5	+4.9±4.0
BH slice through the middle	8%	−6.2	+1.9	+0.1	−4.3±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.2	−0.8	−2.7	−7.6±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.8±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (530 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mirra	Value
FH through the middle	50%	−3.2	+1.6	+0.4	−1.2±2.6
FH crosscourt	27%	+0.5	±0.0	−2.9	−2.4±3.9
FH down the line	23%	−0.6	+1.9	−2.2	−0.9±4.6

Lean FH down the line: +0.5±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (113 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mirra	Value
FH inside-out	34%	+1.4	+0.7	−2.2	−0.2±3.8
FH through the middle	31%	−2.7	+2.4	+0.4	+0.1±2.2
BH through the middle	18%	−2.6	+1.7	+0.1	−0.8±2.2
BH crosscourt	8%	+1.5	−0.1	−0.1	+1.3±2.7
BH down the line	3%	−0.5	−1.9	−2.9	−5.3±3.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.9±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (261 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Mirra Andreeva

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally	+8.7±7.3	+5.3	+3.5
FH to their backhand · return	+8.7±3.7	+2.2	+6.4
FH to the middle · return	+6.5±1.8	+2.7	+3.8
BH to the middle · return	+6.3±2.0	+2.3	+4.0
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+6.0±4.9	+3.2	+2.8
BH to their backhand · return +1	+6.0±2.7	+3.3	+2.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−14.1±4.9	−9.0	−5.1
BH volley to their backhand · rally	−4.8±8.3	+0.6	−5.4
BH volley to their forehand · rally	−4.6±8.4	−1.0	−3.6
FH volley to their backhand · rally	−4.5±7.7	−1.6	−2.9
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−3.3±2.9	+0.2	−3.5

Sara Sorribes Tormo

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	+6.4±1.8	+5.0	+1.4
BH to the middle · return +1	+6.2±2.5	+4.3	+1.9
BH to their backhand · return	+5.3±3.3	+5.6	−0.3
BH slice to the middle · return +1	+5.1±2.6	+4.0	+1.1
BH to the middle · serve +1	+5.0±2.3	+3.8	+1.2
BH slice to their backhand · return +1	+4.9±3.6	+3.9	+1.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH slice to their backhand · rally	−3.9±5.1	+0.2	−4.1
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−3.4±3.9	+2.6	−6.1
FH slice to their forehand · rally	−2.3±4.7	+3.1	−5.5
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−0.4±3.8	+2.9	−3.3
BH slice to their backhand · rally	±0.0±2.2	+1.5	−1.5

Against Sara Sorribes Tormo-like opponents

Mirra Andreeva v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	59.9%	46.4%
Players most similar to Sara Sorribes Tormo	8	62.4%	48.9%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Tamara Zidansek, Marie Bouzkova, Viktorija Golubic, Daria Kasatkina, Katie Volynets, Sara Errani, Alize Cornet, Madison Brengle, Saisai Zheng, Jennifer Capriati. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.