Game plan

Nick Kyrgios v Oscar Otte

Every number combines what Nick Kyrgios does well with what Oscar Otte allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Nick Kyrgios wins, best of 3 89%90%: 68%–98% · best of 5: 94%

Serve points won 75.8% / 65.1% Nick / Oscar · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 89%serve 75.8% / 65.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Nick Kyrgios's record against Oscar Otte's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Nick	Oscar
Direction choice	−0.04 ±0.06 better than 46%	±0.00 ±0.13 better than 57%
Shot selection	−0.09 ±0.06 better than 41%	−0.32 ±0.46 better than 21%
Execution	+0.99 ±0.32 better than 95%	−1.08 ±1.56 better than 23%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Nick Kyrgios serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Nick wins	v Oscar	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	77%	78%	81.0%±6.3	51% ▲
Body	3%	62%	66%	65.0%±14.2	0% ▼
T	59%	83%	75%	83.3%±5.4	49% ▼

Optimal v Oscar Otte: +0.5±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Nick wins	v Oscar	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	79%	79%	83.8%±6.1	59% ▲
Body	5%	59%	61%	57.5%±14.4	0% ▼
T	49%	75%	75%	77.9%±7.8	41% ▼

Optimal v Oscar Otte: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Oscar Otte serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Oscar wins	v Nick	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	74%	81%	82.3%±5.7	58% ▲
Body	7%	60%	65%	62.1%±12.7	0% ▼
T	49%	75%	78%	78.1%±7.2	42% ▼

Optimal v Nick Kyrgios: +1.2±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Oscar wins	v Nick	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	74%	80%	80.8%±6.6	60% ▲
Body	7%	61%	70%	68.1%±12.0	0% ▼
T	46%	67%	74%	69.2%±8.3	40% ▼

Optimal v Nick Kyrgios: +0.3±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +6.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Nick Kyrgios returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Oscar	Value
FH through the middle	51%	+4.3	+0.9	+1.0	+6.1±2.4
FH down the line	19%	+1.7	+1.6	−1.0	+2.2±3.4
FH crosscourt	13%	+5.5	+2.3	−3.3	+4.6±3.7
FH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	+2.2	−1.1	−3.1±1.7
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	+3.5	±0.0	−0.8±2.2

Lean FH through the middle: +2.4±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1842 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Oscar	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	+2.4	−2.6	+6.2±2.2
BH crosscourt	27%	+8.8	+2.1	+1.4	+12.3±2.7
BH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	+1.3	±0.0	−2.9±1.9
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+0.4	+0.5	+5.1±4.2
BH slice crosscourt	5%	+0.5	+0.2	±0.0	+0.8±2.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.4±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1682 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Oscar	Value
FH through the middle	53%	−3.5	+0.1	+0.8	−2.6±2.5
FH down the line	20%	−1.8	+1.5	+1.0	+0.7±4.2
FH crosscourt	17%	−0.2	+1.4	−0.3	+0.9±4.1
FH slice through the middle	3%	−12.7	+0.5	±0.0	−12.2±1.5
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	+0.8	−0.3	+0.6±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.5±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (593 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Oscar	Value
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	+1.3	−3.3	−0.9±2.7
BH through the middle	38%	−2.9	−0.1	−0.3	−3.3±2.1
BH down the line	15%	−0.2	+1.8	−1.0	+0.6±4.0
FH through the middle	2%	−2.9	+0.8	+0.8	−1.3±2.4
FH inside-in	2%	+0.6	−1.3	−0.3	−1.1±4.1

Lean BH down the line: +2.4±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1256 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Oscar Otte returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nick	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.3	−1.8	−0.2	+2.3±2.3
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.5	+2.6	+0.7	+8.8±3.6
FH slice through the middle	22%	−4.2	−0.5	+3.1	−1.6±1.8
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	−2.0	+1.5	+1.2±3.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.1±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (74 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nick	Value
BH through the middle	33%	+6.4	+0.9	+1.2	+8.5±2.2
BH crosscourt	31%	+8.8	−0.5	+0.6	+9.0±3.0
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	−0.1	+1.1	+5.2±3.7
BH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	+0.2	+0.8	−3.1±1.6
BH slice down the line	8%	−8.4	−2.1	+0.4	−10.2±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.9±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (91 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nick	Value
BH through the middle	52%	−2.9	−1.9	+1.5	−3.3±2.0
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	−0.8	+1.3	+1.5±2.6
BH down the line	10%	−0.2	−0.2	+3.9	+3.5±3.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.3±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (58 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Nick Kyrgios

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+5.9±4.4	+0.8	+5.1
FH to the middle · return	+2.8±2.6	+1.6	+1.2
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.4±2.8	−1.3	+0.9
BH to the middle · return	−0.4±2.4	+2.2	−2.6
BH to their backhand · return	−2.9±3.6	−0.2	−2.7
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.1±3.9	−2.3	−0.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	−5.6±3.4	−3.5	−2.1
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.1±3.9	−2.3	−0.8
BH to their backhand · return	−2.9±3.6	−0.2	−2.7
BH to the middle · return	−0.4±2.4	+2.2	−2.6
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.4±2.8	−1.3	+0.9

Oscar Otte

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.7±3.6	+1.6	+2.1
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.4±2.9	+1.2	+1.2
BH to their backhand · return	+1.6±3.9	−1.3	+2.9
BH to the middle · return	+1.3±2.6	−1.0	+2.3
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.3±3.5	±0.0	+0.3
BH to the middle · rally	−0.8±2.3	−1.8	+1.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	−1.8±2.8	−3.8	+2.1
BH to the middle · rally	−0.8±2.3	−1.8	+1.0
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.3±3.5	±0.0	+0.3
BH to the middle · return	+1.3±2.6	−1.0	+2.3
BH to their backhand · return	+1.6±3.9	−1.3	+2.9

Against Oscar Otte-like opponents

Nick Kyrgios v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	69.6%	31.7%