Game plan

Nishesh Basavareddy v Alexis Galarneau

Every number combines what Nishesh Basavareddy does well with what Alexis Galarneau allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Nishesh Basavareddy wins, best of 3 64%90%: 26%–91% · best of 5: 68%

Serve points won 62.2% / 59.3% Nishesh / Alexis · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 64%serve 62.2% / 59.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Nishesh Basavareddy's record against Alexis Galarneau's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Nishesh Basavareddy serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Nishesh wins	v Alexis	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	76%	74%	77.0%±9.0	66% ▲
Body	10%	69%	63%	69.1%±14.1	0% ▼
T	37%	78%	74%	77.1%±10.2	34% ▼

Optimal v Alexis Galarneau: +0.7±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +0.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Nishesh wins	v Alexis	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	76%	74%	76.9%±9.8	45% ▼
Body	8%	60%	52%	48.8%±16.4	0% ▼
T	42%	72%	66%	66.4%±11.9	55% ▲

Optimal v Alexis Galarneau: +0.5±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +6.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Alexis Galarneau serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alexis wins	v Nishesh	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	69%	72%	68.1%±10.6	61% ▲
Body	20%	65%	61%	63.0%±13.5	19%
T	33%	68%	69%	61.1%±12.9	20% ▼

Optimal v Nishesh Basavareddy: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alexis wins	v Nishesh	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	67%	74%	68.4%±9.9	50% ▼
Body	10%	61%	61%	58.9%±15.3	0% ▼
T	37%	76%	72%	76.2%±10.2	50% ▲

Optimal v Nishesh Basavareddy: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Nishesh Basavareddy returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexis	Value
FH through the middle	44%	+4.3	−0.9	+0.6	+4.0±3.0
FH crosscourt	31%	+5.5	+1.5	+3.2	+10.2±4.1
FH down the line	10%	+1.7	−3.5	+1.1	−0.7±4.0
FH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	+0.4	−0.4	−4.2±1.7
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.3	−2.9	±0.0	−7.2±1.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.3±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (262 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexis	Value
BH crosscourt	31%	+8.8	−0.7	+0.9	+9.0±3.6
BH through the middle	27%	+6.4	+2.0	−0.9	+7.5±2.8
BH slice through the middle	18%	−4.2	+1.6	+0.3	−2.4±2.0
BH slice crosscourt	12%	+0.5	−2.5	±0.0	−2.0±2.1
BH slice down the line	8%	−8.4	−0.4	+1.1	−7.7±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.4±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (253 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexis	Value
FH crosscourt	52%	−0.2	+1.1	−0.7	+0.2±3.9
FH through the middle	35%	−3.5	+0.5	−0.8	−3.8±2.8
FH down the line	7%	−1.8	+0.8	+1.2	+0.3±3.2
FH slice through the middle	6%	−12.7	−0.3	±0.0	−12.9±1.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.2±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (86 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexis	Value
BH crosscourt	58%	+1.0	+2.9	−2.4	+1.5±3.2
BH through the middle	35%	−2.9	−1.0	−1.8	−5.7±2.5
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	−3.2	±0.0	−3.4±2.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.9±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (113 returns charted)

Alexis Galarneau returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nishesh	Value
FH through the middle	59%	+4.3	+0.4	−0.9	+3.8±2.8
FH down the line	23%	+1.7	+2.3	−2.5	+1.4±4.1
FH crosscourt	9%	+5.5	−1.9	+2.8	+6.4±3.6
FH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−0.8	+0.4	−4.6±1.8

Lean FH through the middle: +1.1±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (56 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nishesh	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	−2.5	+1.1	+5.0±2.6
BH crosscourt	30%	+8.8	−1.6	+1.4	+8.7±3.3
BH down the line	14%	+4.2	+0.7	−1.0	+3.9±3.8
BH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	−0.5	+1.5	−3.2±2.0

Lean BH through the middle: ±0.0±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (43 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Nishesh Basavareddy

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	+4.3±2.4	+2.5	+1.8
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.4±3.0	+1.9	+0.5
FH to the middle · rally	+1.5±2.4	+2.8	−1.4
BH to the middle · rally	+1.2±2.3	+1.1	±0.0
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.7±3.2	+1.0	−0.3
BH to their backhand · return	−0.5±3.1	+0.1	−0.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−1.1±2.5	−1.5	+0.4
BH to the middle · return	−1.0±2.6	+0.6	−1.6
BH to their forehand · rally	−0.9±4.1	+3.1	−4.0
BH to their backhand · return	−0.5±3.1	+0.1	−0.7
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.7±3.2	+1.0	−0.3

Alexis Galarneau

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · rally	+3.4±2.3	+2.3	+1.0
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.0±2.9	+1.3	+1.6
BH to the middle · rally	+2.2±2.1	+1.3	+0.9
BH to their backhand · rally	+1.8±2.5	+0.7	+1.1
FH to the middle · return	+1.2±2.6	+1.2	±0.0
FH to their forehand · rally	−0.6±3.2	−0.6	+0.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−0.6±3.2	−0.6	+0.1
FH to the middle · return	+1.2±2.6	+1.2	±0.0
BH to their backhand · rally	+1.8±2.5	+0.7	+1.1
BH to the middle · rally	+2.2±2.1	+1.3	+0.9
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.0±2.9	+1.3	+1.6

Against Alexis Galarneau-like opponents

Nishesh Basavareddy v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	65.9%	39.2%