Game plan

Petra Martic v Laura Pigossi

Every number combines what Petra Martic does well with what Laura Pigossi allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Petra Martic wins, best of 3 62%90%: 25%–89% · best of 5: 64%

Serve points won 60.0% / 57.7% Petra / Laura · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 62%serve 60.0% / 57.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Petra Martic's record against Laura Pigossi's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Petra	Laura
Direction choice	+0.06 ±0.09 better than 64%	−0.29 ±0.23 better than 8%
Shot selection	±0.00 ±0.22 better than 45%	+0.32 ±0.33 better than 81%
Execution	+0.40 ±0.47 better than 75%	−0.70 ±2.24 better than 27%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Petra Martic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Petra wins	v Laura	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	65%	65%	64.9%±10.4	49%
Body	14%	57%	56%	56.4%±13.8	0% ▼
T	36%	72%	66%	70.3%±9.3	51% ▲

Optimal v Laura Pigossi: +1.2±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Petra wins	v Laura	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	68%	56%	58.5%±10.2	62% ▲
Body	19%	58%	54%	55.8%±13.6	4% ▼
T	32%	60%	67%	61.9%±12.1	34% ▲

Optimal v Laura Pigossi: +0.6±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Laura Pigossi serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Laura wins	v Petra	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	63%	72%	68.9%±9.1	53% ▲
Body	44%	53%	59%	54.5%±10.2	29% ▼
T	18%	61%	67%	59.9%±12.1	18%

Optimal v Petra Martic: +1.3±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +7.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Laura wins	v Petra	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	27%	62%	64%	60.2%±10.9	32% ▲
Body	45%	59%	59%	61.4%±10.3	30% ▼
T	28%	66%	69%	71.0%±10.1	38% ▲

Optimal v Petra Martic: +0.7±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +7.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Petra Martic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Laura	Value
FH through the middle	55%	+4.2	+1.1	−0.1	+5.1±2.9
FH crosscourt	29%	+5.3	+2.5	−0.7	+7.1±4.1
FH down the line	14%	+1.5	+0.7	−1.0	+1.2±4.7
FH slice through the middle	2%	−6.7	+0.8	−0.8	−6.7±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.2±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (364 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Laura	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.0	−1.3	+0.1	+4.8±2.7
BH crosscourt	21%	+7.7	+0.6	+0.1	+8.5±3.6
BH slice through the middle	18%	−6.2	+0.7	+0.4	−5.1±2.5
BH slice crosscourt	9%	−4.2	−0.4	±0.0	−4.6±2.9
BH down the line	7%	+2.2	+2.0	+1.3	+5.5±4.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.1±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (441 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Laura	Value
FH crosscourt	40%	+0.5	−1.2	−3.2	−3.9±4.0
FH down the line	38%	−0.6	+2.0	+0.3	+1.8±4.7
FH through the middle	22%	−3.2	−1.8	−0.7	−5.7±2.5

Lean FH down the line: +3.9±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (90 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Laura	Value
BH crosscourt	33%	+1.5	+1.7	+0.6	+3.8±3.3
BH through the middle	28%	−2.6	−0.4	−0.4	−3.3±2.4
FH through the middle	13%	−2.7	−1.7	−0.7	−5.0±2.2
FH inside-in	12%	+0.7	−1.2	−3.2	−3.6±4.1
BH down the line	9%	−0.5	−1.6	−0.9	−3.0±4.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.8±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (189 returns charted)

Laura Pigossi returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Petra	Value
FH through the middle	52%	+4.2	+0.3	+0.6	+5.1±2.8
FH crosscourt	36%	+5.3	+3.2	+3.7	+12.2±4.0
FH down the line	11%	+1.5	−1.8	−2.1	−2.4±3.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.4±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (44 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Petra	Value
BH through the middle	52%	+6.0	−0.6	+1.1	+6.5±2.7
BH crosscourt	35%	+7.7	+2.9	+2.7	+13.3±3.4
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	−1.9	+1.1	+1.3±4.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.0±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (82 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Petra	Value
BH crosscourt	28%	+1.5	+0.2	+0.5	+2.2±3.0
BH through the middle	28%	−2.6	−0.6	+0.7	−2.4±2.3
FH through the middle	19%	−2.7	±0.0	+1.9	−0.8±2.3
FH inside-out	15%	+1.4	−1.3	−3.4	−3.3±3.6
FH inside-in	11%	+0.7	−0.4	+0.9	+1.2±3.9

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Petra Martic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.4±3.8	+1.6	+0.8
FH to the middle · rally	+1.7±3.3	+0.4	+1.3
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+1.3±3.5	+0.1	+1.2
BH to the middle · rally	+0.9±3.3	+1.1	−0.2
FH to their forehand · rally	+0.4±4.3	+2.9	−2.5
BH slice to the middle · rally	−0.4±3.3	+0.1	−0.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.7±4.5	+1.9	−3.6
FH to the middle · return	−0.6±3.8	+1.1	−1.7
BH slice to the middle · rally	−0.4±3.3	+0.1	−0.4
FH to their forehand · rally	+0.4±4.3	+2.9	−2.5
BH to the middle · rally	+0.9±3.3	+1.1	−0.2

Laura Pigossi

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return	+8.1±4.5	+6.6	+1.6
FH to the middle · return	+2.6±3.8	+0.6	+2.0
FH to the middle · rally	+1.1±3.3	−0.7	+1.8
BH to their backhand · rally	+0.7±3.3	−1.0	+1.8
BH to the middle · rally	+0.7±3.1	+1.5	−0.8
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+0.7±5.5	−0.7	+1.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.8±3.9	−3.6	+0.8
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.9±3.9	−2.9	+1.0
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−1.1±5.3	−0.7	−0.4
BH to the middle · return	±0.0±3.6	−0.5	+0.5
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+0.7±5.5	−0.7	+1.4

Against Laura Pigossi-like opponents

Petra Martic v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	57.8%	40.3%