Game plan

Rafael Nadal v Alessandro Giannessi

Every number combines what Rafael Nadal does well with what Alessandro Giannessi allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Rafael Nadal serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Rafael wins	v Alessandro	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	31%	75%	70%	72.2%±8.9	44% ▲
Body	18%	64%	59%	60.5%±13.3	5% ▼
T	51%	69%	77%	71.3%±11.9	51%

Optimal v Alessandro Giannessi: +0.8±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Rafael wins	v Alessandro	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	71%	69%	67.3%±12.6	54%
Body	18%	67%	67%	70.9%±12.0	5% ▼
T	28%	75%	74%	77.3%±8.4	41% ▲

Optimal v Alessandro Giannessi: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Alessandro Giannessi serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alessandro wins	v Rafael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	29%	75%	66%	68.9%±11.7	42% ▲
Body	23%	66%	58%	60.8%±12.7	10% ▼
T	48%	65%	74%	64.1%±10.7	48%

Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.7±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alessandro wins	v Rafael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	66%	70%	71%	69.1%±10.2	79% ▲
Body	12%	65%	57%	58.8%±13.9	0% ▼
T	22%	71%	66%	64.9%±13.2	21% ▼

Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.8±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Rafael Nadal returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alessandro	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	+0.4	+1.7	+6.3±1.9
FH crosscourt	31%	+5.5	+2.4	−3.5	+4.4±2.2
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	−0.8	+1.7	+2.6±2.8
FH slice through the middle	3%	−4.2	+0.1	±0.0	−4.1±1.4
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.3	+7.5	±0.0	+3.1±1.9
BH through the middle	0%	+6.6	+0.4	+2.0	+8.9±2.7

Lean BH through the middle: +4.3±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (5711 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alessandro	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	−0.2	+2.0	+8.2±2.0
BH crosscourt	19%	+8.8	−1.2	±0.0	+7.6±1.7
BH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	+2.1	+1.8	−0.4±1.5
BH down the line	15%	+4.2	+3.3	±0.0	+7.6±2.2
BH slice down the line	7%	−8.4	+5.7	±0.0	−2.7±1.3
FH through the middle	1%	+7.7	+2.5	+1.7	+11.9±2.4

Lean FH through the middle: +6.5±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (9039 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alessandro	Value
FH crosscourt	48%	−0.2	+0.7	±0.0	+0.4±1.4
FH through the middle	33%	−3.5	−2.6	−0.5	−6.6±1.8
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	+3.8	+0.9	+2.9±3.4
BH inside-out	1%	+0.9	+0.3	±0.0	+1.2±2.6
FH slice through the middle	1%	−12.7	−0.2	±0.0	−12.8±1.3

Lean FH down the line: +4.5±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (2037 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alessandro	Value
BH through the middle	35%	−2.9	+2.0	+0.3	−0.6±1.7
BH crosscourt	28%	+1.0	−1.0	±0.0	±0.0±0.8
BH down the line	17%	−0.2	+1.8	±0.0	+1.6±1.5
FH through the middle	9%	−2.9	+1.2	−0.5	−2.1±1.5
FH inside-in	8%	+0.6	+1.5	±0.0	+2.1±1.9

Lean FH inside-in: +2.1±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (5854 returns charted)

Alessandro Giannessi returning

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rafael	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.4	−1.3	+0.7	+5.8±1.9
BH down the line	30%	+4.2	+0.8	+4.3	+9.3±3.0
BH slice through the middle	30%	−4.2	+0.2	+1.9	−2.1±1.7

Lean BH down the line: +4.8±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (54 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Rafael Nadal

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.5±2.7	+2.3	+2.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.5±2.7	+2.3	+2.2

Alessandro Giannessi

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.4±2.7	+3.2	+1.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−5.4±3.2	−2.9	−2.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−5.4±3.2	−2.9	−2.5
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.4±2.7	+3.2	+1.3

Against Alessandro Giannessi-like opponents

Rafael Nadal v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	66.0%	40.1%